In the post army chief scenario, Musharraf won’t find any friends because he has made none. The independent broadcasting and print media is among the top most rivals Musharraf will face in the coming days.
President Pervez Musharraf’s authoritarian and dictatorial eight-year rule came to an end on November 28 when he relinquished charge of the army. Now he intends to rule the country as a civilian leader with very little scope of authoritarianism. Not that Pakistan hasn’t been ruled by civilian leaders in a dictatorial manner, but the fact is that all such leaders in past couldn’t survive for long. Musharraf has also begun the journey to, yet, unchartered territory of power corridors as a civilian leader. It ushers a new era in Pakistani politics, wherein Musharraf will have to deal with civilian rivals without the unquestioned backing of the military. Musharraf took off his proverbial ‘skin’ under extreme pressure from the Western countries and Pakistani public following several months of agitation and sacrifices by the lawyers, media and representatives of the civil society.
Musharraf, who in a past interview had said that uniform was like his second skin, was skinned in a military ceremony pushing him into the civilian arena where he will find survival is not as easy as it was in the military.
Though Musharraf still enjoys unprecedented powers vested in the president through numerous constitutional changes he introduced since first taking oath of the office in June 2000, yet the field will be open for the politicians and rivals to deal with a civilian ruler. Earlier, as the army chief, Musharraf enjoyed the military backing to cover all his actions. He wasn’t questioned or criticised because of the fear of military backlash until March 9 when he removed Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry. That opened up a Pandora’s box with media, lawyers and civil society members criticizing Musharraf like never before.
However, on several occasions he was able to silence his critics through draconian and unconstitutional steps including imposing martial law and curbing the media, beating up the lawyers and arresting and detaining opponents. He was able to take these steps because he had the backing of the top commanders in the military. Now as a civilian president, it won’t be that easy for Musharraf to keep taking extra-constitutional steps. He can now be compared with former presidents Ghulam Ishaq Khan and Farooq Leghari, who despite having enormous constitutional powers were unable to withstand the political onslaught.
Musharraf quits as army chief at a time when its biggest supporter Pakistan Muslim League (Q) is in disarray after the arrival of Nawaz Sharif in the country. Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and the top party leadership are finding it impossible to keep the members within the party as most of them are slipping either towards the PPP or the Sharif’s PML (N). Just as the PML (Q) leadership embarrassed former prime minister Shaukat Aziz by not offering him a party ticket for the forthcoming elections, Musharraf may also start getting the feeling very soon that he doesn’t enjoy the same influence in the party as he did while he was the army chief. The PML (Q), as it always was regarded as a group of opportunists, also kicked out Wasi Zafar and Sher Afgan, the two most vocal supporters of Musharraf, from the party by not offering them election ticket. Opposition leader Benazir Bhutto has also scrapped the power sharing deal with Musharraf after he imposed martial law on Nov 3 and detained her twice in a week -- once in Islamabad and second time in Lahore.
While the international community has been urging Musharraf to lift martial law, release political prisoners, restore civil rights and end curbs on media, Bhutto and Sharif have been leading other opposition parties in the campaign against the martial law inside the country. The pressure from inside and outside the country was enormous forcing Musharraf to take reform measures one by one starting from the release of political prisoners, allowing Sharif back in the country and taking off his uniform. Now a big question mark remains on when he intends to lift the martial law. The few days before Musharraf quit the army, the opposition leaders became somewhat silent waiting for the event when Musharraf takes off his uniform and then searching for the right opportunity to launch the campaign against him.
It is not that Musharraf wasn’t aware of all these events when he decided to quit the army. He made several adjustments in power structure and the military to suit his post-army chief rule. Promoting Pervaiz Kayani, a graduate of a US military academy, gives him the strength of appointing his key confidante and junior to the top most post in the army in the hope that he will come to his rescue whenever he is threatened by the civilian opposition. Kayani’s contacts with the Americans, who are firmly behind Musharraf taken the support he enjoys from President George W Bush, will also ensure that Musharraf stays in power and the United States military aid to hunt for al Qaeda people continues unhindered. Kayani has served under Musharraf at different posts and he has his confidence. Kayani in some of his statements has given the commitment to fight the country's war against so-called terrorism on the instruction of a civilian government. Kayani, who was promoted by Musharraf in October to full general and appointed army chief-designate, studied at the Military College in Jhelum and also at Command and General Staff College at Fort Leavenworth in the United States. Kayani also headed investigations into two failed assassination attempts on Musharraf in Dec 2003. He went on in 2004 to head the ISI, the agency that is now headed by another close confidante of Musharraf -- General Nadeem Taj. During the past few years Musharraf has either forcibly retired or bypassed in promotion several army officers who by any chance could be a threat to him. So when we looked in totality, Musharraf has secured his position as civilian president by appointing his loyalists at key positions. In simpler word, Musharraf did his homework before taking the most crucial decision of his life.
Yet, political observers, analysts and politicians are not giving much wait to Musharraf seeking strength from the military after retirement. The general impression is once he quits the army, he will need to look for civilian supporters. And there are none. He was already feeling lonely sitting at the top military and civilian post simultaneously, now that he has given up his military post, he must be lonelier than ever. The PML (Q) is already a party of politicians only loyal to power and not to individuals. It is likely to ditch Musharraf in difficult times, as it did Shaukat Aziz. Bhutto has already pulled out of the power sharing deal and Nawaz Sharif -- he has the bitterest rival that he himself produced eight years ago.
In the post army chief scenario, Musharraf won’t find any friends because he has made none. The independent broadcasting and print media is among the top most rivals Musharraf will face in the coming days. And with elections drawing nearer in the United States, after January or a year before American presidential elections, Bush is also, as is the tradition, likely to lose his influence over American policy making. Thus, Musharraf's last supporter, Bush, won't be able to influence the American policy makers.
