Just like weather, the political chessboard of Pakistan, too, is highly unpredictable. With each passing day, the political scenario reflects a highly fluid situation with new turns and twist.
From the day one, President Pervez Musharraf had been leveling charges of corruption against former premiers Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif and Ms Bhutto, asserting that they would not be allowed to return to Pakistan and participate in the 2008 general elections. It was also the government view that action would be taken against the exiled leaders if they returned, according to the legal process. All this benefited the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML-Q) and its allies. This also helped them complete their five-year term in the assemblies.
But some how, the situation flip-flopped and President Musharraf had to back pedal from his stance. The president held secret parleys with the Pakistan People’s Party Chairperson Benazir Bhutto in Dubai. These talks led to reconciliation and a deal was made. Benazir Bhutto assured President Musharraf that her party would not resign from the assemblies. The former prime minister was allowed to return to the country on October 18, after the presidential elections. Prior to her landing at Karachi, President Musharraf issued the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) that provided amnesty to politicians against cases based on political rivalries from 1985 till 1999. These cases involved those made on account of corruption as well.
Benazir Bhutto, soon after her return, started her charge against President Musharraf. There was a suicide attack on her rally in Karachi that left scores dead. In view of the riding extremist militancy in the country, President Musharraf imposed emergency promulgating the Provisional Constitution Order (PCO). Ms Bhutto’s charge against the president intensified and her anti-Musharraf policy became more hardened. The contacts and meetings between the president and Benazir, too, came to an end.
When the establishment and the military circles saw Benazir’s increasing inclination towards the US and the US itself supporting the PPP leader’s role in Pakistani politics, they persuaded President Musharraf to allow Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) Chief Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif to return, thinking he was more trustworthy than Benazir Bhutto, especially keeping in view the fact that Nawaz and Shahbaz never had that poor relations with the army. This made President Musharraf take a U-turn on his own policy and he sent his special aides that played an important role in breaking the ice. Nawaz Sharif, who maintains a strict stance towards President Musharraf, was given certain sureties.
On the hand, Saudi King Abdullah was also pressing President Musharraf that if Benazir was allowed to return, then Nawaz Sharif, too, should be allowed to make a come back so that he could also take part in polls. It was further conveyed that if this is not done, then it will leave questions in the minds of Pakistani public regarding the Saudi government. President Musharraf, accepting the advice of his military aides and establishment, decided to go to Saudi Arabia. In his meeting with King Abdullah, the president sought the Saudi leader’s guarantee that Mian Nawaz Sharif would not charge at Musharraf and confine himself to political statements alone.
King Abdullah gave these guarantees to President Musharraf after seeking Mian Nawaz’s approval. Musharraf was assured that the PML-N chief would abide by this understanding. At this, Nawaz returned on November 25, again changing in the political landscape of the country.
The return of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz Chief Mian Nawaz Sharif has made the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Q restless. President Musharraf had time and again assured the PML-Q leadership that Nawaz would not return to Pakistan before the elections. But this didn’t happen as Nawaz Sharif has return only to add to PML-Q’s woes.
On the other hand, the PML leadership didn’t accord out any reasonable treatment to the former prime minister, Shaukat Aziz, as he was not given the party ticket. For PML-Q, the return of Nawaz Sharif will create hurdles. PML-N will give PML-Q a tough time and it would not be easy for Pervaiz Elahi to realize his dream of becoming a prime minister.
