Shaukat Aziz has reportedly decided to take rest and not to contest upcoming polls. He has been in charge of country's financial affairs for last eight years. Even when he occupied the top slot of the government he retained with himself the ministry of finance. He was on the many technocrats Musharraf took onboard after his coup of 1999.
Achieving economic sovereignty for Pakistan was one of Musharraf's top objectives and he picked up Shaukat Aziz along with Dr. Ishrat Hussain and Dr. Hafeez Sheikh for the task. The State Bank governor was sidelined after he completed his second term. Hafeez left his job halfway during PML-Q government.
While Shaukat served as the premier of Pakistan, he entrusted Dr. Salman Shah, who acted as his aide, with managing the finances of the state. None but Salman Shah is at the helm of affairs. After the elections are held and new government is formed, technocrats will be the story of the past.
Technocrats had authored Pakistan's structural reforms. They remained there for almost a decade to put economy on liberal path. They were meant to fulfill country's obligations as the member of the World Trade Organization. Filling the yawning gap between country's imports and exports was the biggest challenge they had to meet.
General Musharraf relied too heavily on technocrats. By arranging necessary finances to keep economy afloat was the great job they did for his regime. So, the foreign exchange reserves were taken up to the mark of $ 10 billion and current account balance remained reasonable. The phenomenal surge in the oil prices definitely increased their difficulties but they managed to keep economy afloat.
By acting as a frontline state in war on terror, Pakistan received massive funds from the US, other than the access to its market as well as those of the other allies. Textile industry rose to its feet due to Pakistan’s strategic role. The government favors like zero-rate duties on imports of machinery and low interest rates helped it to not only revive sick units, but also gain competitive edge in international market.
Banking, energy and telecom sector underwent structural reforms and proved to be an important avenue of FDI. New actors appeared on the scene to benefit government's business friendly policies. No restriction on the amount of investment and the liberty to take away profits did prove the main attraction. Stock exchanges were also left to the adventures of financial bigwigs. Government's lax attitude towards privatization process is also part of the eight-year long story.
The striking aspect of the reformation process in Pakistan is that it is still halfway. The second-generation reforms that had to soften the harshness of the first phase could not be launched at all. Economy's performance remained confined to three or four sectors, while other sectors could not improve their performance. Agriculture, the backbone of economy, is marred by mismanagement of vital resources like water, while the input cost (mainly concerning oil, pesticides and fertilizer) has increased manifold.
Kitchen item prices have also been increased and the necessities of life are getting out of the reach of the lower and middle classes. While the trade gap has started getting out of control, foreign investors are leaving due to worsening law and order situation — suicide bombers have not even spared the armed forces and the affiliated departments.
Dr. Ishrat Hussain recently said the benefits of development had not been evenly distributed. The gap between the rich and the poor has widened to the new limits. Economic disparities among regions remain intact. Though massive funds were allocated for the uplift of the so-far-neglected areas, the projects are either underway or the work has been stopped for want of additional funds.
The government has abandoned the small savers and low-income groups that have suffered the onslaught of the structural reforms, through massive layoffs and lowering of interest rates. General Musharraf and his political colleagues, grouped into PML-Q, are there to bear the cost of what the technocrats have done to the country and its people.
Had the PML-Q government not interfered in the working of media and judiciary, the political cost could have been averted. Failing to this end, the regime undertook search for the scapegoats. National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) was brought ahead to lure the mainstream political parties. Benazir and Nawaz Sharif are back to participate in elections.
The prices of essential goods are touching the skies and Salman Shah, the caretaker finance minister, has indicated of removing the oil subsidy. People can now taste the fruit of democracy, but the experience will be as bitter as the past. The scenario can be as interesting as the political parties are getting united on the single-point agenda of getting rid of Musharraf, who will readily pull out. The hung parliament will follow with political parties too occupied with their share in the government.
One wonders if some political alliance proves sagacious enough to stay away from elections and demands a consensus government instead of free and fair elections. Conducive environment for polls is not only necessary for political stability but it provides basis for economic growth. Constitution also needs proper attention, for it has been unscrupulously amended during last eight years.
When technocrats have pulled out, generals should be eagerly looking for a safe-exit, though the recent apex court ruling vis-à-vis Musharraf leaves an entirely different impression. Once they, too, are spared, PML-Q will evaporate in the air. This is possible because Benazir and Nawaz Sharif are that eager to become premiers for third time. The mullas, nationalists and civil society have no option but support the move to push army out of politics.
