Right from Brazil to Canada, from Africa to Middle East, and from Europe to Asia, conflicts and potential for conflicts are brewing on the sole issue of water.
Several factors are behind all international conflicts over water and pose problems for managing and allocating the commodity efficiently and equitably. These include the variability and uncertainty in supplies, the interdependence among users, and the increasing dearth and rising costs of freshwater as water has become a “fugitive resource”.
Pakistan is one of those countries, where water is the single most important input in agriculture on which the country’s agrarian-based economy depends. The simmering water scarcity crisis in Pakistan is deepening, and experts maintain that the long-term forecast is even bleaker. Meteorologists, who blame the prolonged drought on the La Nina weather phenomenon, fear that the country has entered a dry cycle and can expect drought-like conditions to return after every six years.
According to a State Bank report, per capita water availability is declining in Pakistan over the time due to the combined impact of rising population, falling water flows and erosion in the storage capacity. The per capita water availability has declined low from 2002.6 cubic meters in 1950-51 to 1136.5 cubic meters in 2003-04.
Experts predict that with prevailing consumption rates and a population growth of 4 million people a year, one out of three people in Pakistan will face critical shortages of water, "threatening their very survival", if the government doesn’t take some concrete steps to counter this crisis. Already the current drought conditions have devastated livelihoods in semi-arid regions, and left four million people in Karachi with no option but to drink brackish water. The problem is much sever in southern Punjab districts of Multan, Bhalawalpur, Bahalwalnagar, Dera Ghazi Khan, Muzzaffer Garh, and Rahimyar Khan, where not merely the women have to travel long distances to fetch potable water, but there is also an acute scarcity of irrigation water, which is going to assume alarming proportions following construction of various dams by India on Jehlum and Chanab rivers.
According to 1960 Indus Water Treaty, India controls Ravi and Satlaj rivers, while Pakistan has controls on Jehlum and Sindh rivers. The two neighbours have equal control on Chanab, as they cannot construct any dam on the river without a mutual consent.
However, taking advantage of the current geo-political situation, India has virtually thrown the Indus Water Treaty into dustbin, and is constructing various dams on Jehlum and Chanab rivers, including Bhagliar dam, Ori two dam, and Kishan Ganga dam. Whereas, construction on Salal dam has recently been completed.
Is this a coincidence that all these dams have been constructed during the dictatorial regime of General (Rtd) Prevez Musharraf i.e. from October 1999 to August 2007?
Experts believe that the feasibility of respective dams had been completed much earlier, but India did not dare to start construction on any dam during Benazir and Nawaz governments. They say inadequate distribution of irrigation water is also one of reasons behind a drought-like situation in many parts of southern Punjab.
Following the Indian control over Satlaj River under the 1960 treaty, agriculture lands in the areas of Haroonabad, Fort Abbas, Chistian, Hasilpur, Yazman, and Liaquatpur had turned barren. Interestingly, such lands were later distributed among army officers, though at that time, there was water available for cultivation.
But after some time, the government arranged 45,000 cusic water for such lands through Biloki-Head Suleimanki link canal for irrigation purpose. Under the said water project, three canals were taken out of Biloki-Head Suleimanki Link Canal for cultivation of the military and other lands in respective areas.
However, experts say the current water supply is insufficient for such a large area. One of the three canals taken out of Suliemanki link Canal, namely Pakpattan Canal, provides water to those areas where underground water is potable and adequate for irrigation purposes, while 50 per cent of the areas irrigated by Fortwah Canal have suitable underground water. Almost all the areas cultivated by Sadqia/Hakra canal have underground salt water, which is not suitable for any purpose.
Experts suggest that if there is a 50 per cent cut in water allocated for Pakpattan Canal, and a 25 per cent reduction in water apportioned by Fortwah Canal, and that water is provided to the most-affected areas through Sadkia/Hakra Canal, the problem will be resolved to a great extent. Environmental experts suggest that Balochistan's underground aquifers are dropping at 3.5 meter annually, and will run out in 15 years. Massive internal displacement is expected.
The drought has highlighted lack of any definitive water policy by successive governments, and exposed serious shortcomings in Pakistan's water storage and antiquated irrigation systems. Outdated irrigation techniques have resulted in water logging and increased soil salinity, while the unequal distribution of water for agriculture has created tensions at community and regional levels, particularly between the rival agrarian provinces of Sindh and Punjab.
Experts suggest a three-pronged strategy to cope with water shortage. The first strategy, they suggest, is to get more water. The second is to use water more efficiently, and the third is to make the most of available water. The two latter strategies, however, are running into difficulties from the need to use economic incentives to promote more efficient water usage. Higher water prices risk creating discontent from powerful vested interests and general discontent among the population. On top of this, there are rising tensions between the upstream province of Punjab and downstream Sindh province.
Once put to rest by a treaty between the two provinces, these upstream-downstream tensions are surfacing again as water scarcity is increasing. Experts argue that Pakistan, which was cited in a 1995 World Development Report as having the highest water potential per person among 130 countries, could and should dramatically improve its water situation to overcome the current crisis and prevent future ones.
According to official statistics, currently, Pakistan has 17 million acre-feet of storage capacity and an annual demand for over 100 million acre-feet of irrigation water. No major dams have been built in the last 27 years, with Pakistan lagging behind neighbouring countries such as Iran, India, Nepal and Turkey in this regard.
Pakistan desperately needs more water storage capacity to deal with the sharply increasing population. Tarbela dam had enabled Pakistan to virtually become self-sufficient in wheat. But, since it was silting up, new reservoirs were needed to ensure there was enough water to sustain domestic wheat crops. Otherwise, the country will remain stranded with a 200 million population, with wheat production dropping back to pre-Tarbela levels. Improving the irrigation system is also important. Pakistan's vast irrigation system -- comprising three main reservoirs, 19 dams, 43 main canals and a conveyance length of 57,000 km -- is aging and has become highly inefficient.
With one of the oldest canal systems in the world, it was bound to live out its utility. The Ministry of Water and Power estimated that 35 million acre-feet of water -- "the equivalent of six Tarbela reservoirs” -- was lost in ground seepage annually. Another major challenge was to overcome regional rivalries in water allocation. Upstream-downstream tensions manifested themselves on a local as well as a provincial level, with those downstream always accusing those upstream of uncontrolled water use. Sindh often blames that Punjab is using more water than has been allocated to it under the1991 water agreement. Balochistan levels similar allegations against Sindh. Faced with such dire predictions, there have been calls for Pakistan to go on a "war-footing" to deal with what is considered by many to be a man-made crisis rather than a natural phenomenon. A community development specialist with the World Bank, Qazi Azmat Isa, says the water crisis was not being prioritised as it should have been. "Water is an issue that transcends all sectors. I should have been given more attention on an institutional, organisational and country level," he said.
