The fall of once impregnable empire of General Pervez Musharraf is imminent. Most people think that his ouster through an impeachment by the parliament is just a formality and the best option for him is to resign as even his loyalists are not willing to back any move by him to dismiss the government and dissolve the parliament under the presidential power of 58(2)B. The second option available to him is to defend the impeachment motion, which may bring out the fighter in him but it is going to prolong his misery in the presidential palace as his defense is not likely to succeed. His ouster is a foregone conclusion, the matter to be decided is whether he will be tried in a court of law or given a safe exit.
According to the constitution, in an impeachment, though unprecedented in Pakistan ’s history, the joint houses of the parliament become sort of a court as lawmakers debate and may investigate the charges against him. The president has the right to reply to the charges leveled against him by either appearing in the joint parliamentary session, or sending his representative. But by no means, according to the provisions of the constitution, the ruling alliance has to prove the charges leveled by them in the joint sitting of the parliament. The resolution can be put to voting as and when appropriate and if accepted by two thirds majority, or 295 out of 442 members, the impeachment would be adopted pacing the way for his ouster.
The process adopted by the ruling coalition before formally launching the impeachment motion is aimed at putting moral pressure on the president to seek vote of confidence from the electoral college or resign. All the four provincial assemblies passed resolutions that the president has lost confidence of elected members so he should seek a fresh vote of confidence. Although it is not binding on the president to get new vote of confidence but that puts pressure on the president that he has lost the support of his electoral college. The move also comes in the wake of his pledge to the Supreme Court last year that he would seek vote of confidence from the new parliament after elections.
Musharraf may be a man of strong nerves but he is definitely not a man of words. The Pakistani nation and the world has believed just too many times on his words, which he didn’t keep starting from his commitment in address to the nation in 2004 that he would doff his uniform that year. He again pledged before the Supreme Court in 2007 that he would take fresh vote of confidence from the new parliament, which he hasn’t done. A few weeks before the February 18 elections, in a newspaper interview he said, he would resign if his loyalists lost in the national polls. His supporters were massively defeated, yet he continued to cling on to power. Not that the people of Pakistan weren’t aware of these misdeeds by the president, but only to emphasize these issues and several other of his misconduct and unconstitutional steps were brought to light in the joint news conference by Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif on August 7 after their historical `make or break’ meeting.
The fragile and already split ruling alliance decided to revive the coalition government in an attempt to move toward genuine democracy. In the post-meeting news conference, the ruling parties levelled a series of charges on the president including that he failed to resign in spite of his commitment that if his party was defeated in the election he would give up power. And that he made a commitment before the Supreme Court that he will get a vote of confidence from the new parliament, which he failed to do. While Musharraf and his hand picked previous government of five years claimed that economic reforms introduced by him since 1999 brought around a revolution, the ruling alliance claim his economic policies plunged the country into a critical economic impasse. Sharif and Zardari accused him of weakening the federation and eroding the trust of the nation in national institutions, while undermining the transition to democracy through collusion with the PML(Q). The ruling alliance presented a long charge sheet against Musharraf, which formed the basis of moving for impeachment against him.
A few days later, Zardari in an interview to U.K. ’s Sunday Times accused the president of misappropriating funds, which were meant for the military to fight militants in the tribal areas. This was a clear cut allegation of corruption against the president. Zardari said, the PPP was investigating the use of more than $700 million a year out of the $1 billion the United States had been giving to Pakistan . He said only $250 million were transferred to the military, while the record of remaining amount is known where these were spent, despite the claim by the previous government that it was used for budgetary support.
No matter how serious the charge sheet read out by Zardari was, the real thrust came the way the PPP co-chairman, not once but many times, pronounced the name of Musharraf, emphasizing on `General Musharraf’ each time. That showed the hatred that Zardari had for him and it also proved a point that the PPP-Musharraf relation had come to a boiling point and there is no room for compromise. The impeachment motion, PPP leadership said, will go ahead notwithstanding the party positions.
The move for impeachment motion and the no confidence expressed by the four provincial assemblies holds a moral value, which the president ought to accept. According to several pre-election and post-election opinion polls conducted by local ad foreign agencies, Musharraf is the most unpopular leader in the country. The February 18 elections also brought out the verdict by the people that they wanted a change and the removal of the president. The civil society members, lawyers, media and people from different walks of life have been campaigning and consistently demanding his removal. Under such circumstances, there is no reason that the president should have stayed in power. Resignation is the only graceful exit, or, according to PPP sources, impeachment could be followed by a court trial.
While the stage is set for Musharraf’s impeachment, the presidential camp and his allies are looking toward the army and the Bush administration to save him yet one more time. He is trying to draw support from the U.S. government, which he obeyed in the past seven years and that had promised him a long rule over the country, in whatever manner he wanted to. Being the army chief for almost nine years, Musharraf is also seeking support from the army and trying to drag in the institution of the military back into power politics. While some Musharraf allies claim that the army is backing him and with the help of MQM and PML(Q), it will save him, sources in the establishment say the military is no longer willing to bail him out as it has withdrawn from politics barely five months ago. That is the reason that the King’s party is also opposing a possible move by the president to dismiss the government as he would need the support of troops to implement that plan. Sources in the establishment also claim that the military is no longer willing to lend its soldiers to an unpopular dictator anymore. The Bush administration is also on its way out, so it will let the new administration to deal with the Pakistani government after the November presidential elections. With PML(Q) leaders also ditching him one by one, Musharraf must be feeling pretty lonely in his palace.