In the aftermath of the tragic events of 9/11, Afghanistan has acquired international focus for all the wrong reasons. The landlocked country, which was the last battlefront of cold war between two super powers, is now witnessing a proxy war of two conventional enemies and regional powers i.e. Pakistan and India. Both countries are jockeying for influencing position in the war-ravaged country. Being close to Afghanistan socially, traditionally, politically and religiously Pakis has always successfully dominated the internal politics of Afghanistan. It welcomed more than three million refugees on its soil after disintegration of USSR. Policy managers of Islamabad have been trying to have Pakistan-friendly regime in Kabul in order to have strategic depth against India to East. This is the reason that Pakistan helped Taliban to take over Kabul in 1996 but Taliban’s repressive policies, human right abuses and providing sanctuaries to Bin Laden earn them the ire of US and international community and 9/11 totally changed the geo-political scenario.
Post 9/11, the US campaign for international war against terrorism and the US operation against the Taliban regime in November 2001 was a blessing in disguise for India. It provided India with a rare and unique opportunity to re-establish its influence in pursuance of its foreign policy goals of attaining a hegemonic position in the region by actively participating in reconstruction efforts. Because of its geo-strategic location, neighboring Iran, Pakistan, and the Central Asian States (after the disintegration of the Soviet Union), Afghanistan has remained the focus of Indian regional policy. Indian policy of reconstructing and rebuilding Afghanistan is primarily centered on two broad based interests to curtail Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan and build linkages with resource rich Central Asian state.
Given Indo-Pakistan rivalry, there is deep fear and suspicion in Pakistan of India's role in Afghanistan. India's activity and profile is a matter of concern to Pakistan as it leaves Pakistan squeezed between East and West fronts if India succeeds in strengthening its foothold in Afghanistan. After 9/11 India has overwhelmingly participated in Afghan reconstruction. By offering economic and developmental assistance to Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s government, India has been able to establish a sphere of influence, which has alarmed the Pakistanis.
Instead of an interest-driven policy, Indian presence in Afghanistan is to counterweight Pakistani influence in the region. India's gigantic embassy at Kabul and four consulates at Jalalabad, Kandahar, Herat and Mazar-i-Sharif and pro-active involvement are indeed a cause of great concern. This new thaw in relations after 9/11 is not without a purpose, which becomes quite evident if we decipher the anti-Pakistan tirade of Hamid Karzai and his ministers.
India has extended a US$750-million package of assistance to Afghanistan following the transformation of the country's political structure post-2001. There are approximately 3500 to 4000 Indian nationals working in various public and private sector projects in Afghanistan. India is also constructing the Pul-e-Kumri-Kabul section of a power transmission line. This contribution is apart from humanitarian efforts such as building hospitals and schools. Afghanistan is a co-sponsor of the G-4 resolution, introduced by India, Brazil, Germany and Japan, to increase the size of the UN Security Council. The resolution has been shot down by China, Russia and the US.
India, which is the fourth largest donor of Afghanistan’s construction projects, has been rendering a yeoman service in Afghanistan. It has substantially regained its pre-eminence there and ‘strategic foothold’ in Afghanistan. India has launched major developmental projects in Afghanistan, which include dollar 109.3 million Salma Dam power project in Herat, envisaged to produce 42 mw of power. It is presently involved in generating hydro-electricity, construction of roads, creating telecommunication network and development of agriculture, industry et al.
One of the largest and strategically significant Indian projects has been the construction of the 280 kilometre Zaranj-Delaram road that would link the Afghan Garland Highway opening a new route for the landlocked Central Asian countries through the Iranian port of Chahbahar. India has provided $80 million, as part of its reconstruction assistance, for the project the construction of which began in 2005 and is to be completed within three years. The Indian Army’s Border Road Organization (BRO) is involved in the construction of the road. Pakistan perceives this to be at the cost of Gawadar port in Balochistan. These developments further undermine Pakistan's salience to Afghanistan as the single point of access to the landlocked Afghanistan and Central Asia.
Greater Indian involvement in the training of the Afghan National Army and the police, providing more vacancies to Afghan military personnel at Indian training establishments and more stress on pro-active development in Afghan rural areas would further consolidate Indian gains in Afghanistan. It has offered more than 500 scholarships for Afghan students for University education in India and in addition, 500 short-term training fellowships under the ITEC Programme.
One good example of India's growing influence in Afghanistan can be seen from the fact that in an Afghan TV show inspired by the US TV show American Idol, candidates sing Hindi songs despite the requirement to sing Afghan songs! Today, India is an exemplary example to follow for young Afghans thanks to the close cultural ties between the two nations.
India is increasingly being looked upon as a friend, while Pakistan's image has suffered. India has imparted training to Afghan police, Afghan national army, parliamentary training to Afghan officials, judicial training, helping to develop media, information and broadcasting, Support in fields of telecommunication, information technology, education sector, diplomatic training, capacity building and training.
Undoubtedly India is stoking the separatist fervors in our Tribal region and in Balochistan. If not curtailed this increasing Indian influence can have sever and serious implications for Pakistan. At one end it will deteriorate the already dismal law and order situation in our tribal region and Balochistan. On the other hand it will prove in flight of foreign capital from the country because economic prosperity and investment is directly linked with political stability and improved security situation. Absence of these key variables will result in economic strangulation of Pakistan.
Undoubtedly India is stoking the separatist fervors in our Tribal region and in Balochistan. If not curtailed this increasing Indian influence can have sever and serious implications for Pakistan. At one end it will deteriorate the already dismal law and order situation in our tribal region and Balochistan. On the other hand it will prove in flight of foreign capital from the country because economic prosperity and investment is directly linked with political stability and improved security situation. Absence of these key variables will result in economic strangulation of Pakistan.
Options for Pakistan are limited and difficult but not impossible. During Daud’s rule in Afghanistan Pakistan was faced with a similar situation when issue of Pushtunistan reared its head but dynamic diplomacy and successfully foreign policy of Bhutto not only countered the anti-Pakistani policies of Daud which had a tacit backing of India but also resulted in muting the repeated demands of settling Durand line issue. Pakistan should stop interfering in internal affairs of Afghanistan at the outset. Active diplomacy is requited through engaging the Kabul for a constructive dialogue to allay their unfounded fears. Enhancing intelligence cooperation in order to stop infiltration in to Afghanistan and checking the insurgency, which is undermining counter-terrorism efforts. Success on these two fronts will automatically deny space to India.
India does not enjoy the leverages, which are at Pakistan’s disposal like geographical proximity, close historical and social ties, cold war era cooperation etc. All we need is a revisited regional foreign policy especially towards Afghanistan. Instead of trying to influence and interfere in their politics we should help them in reconstruction and nation rebuilding efforts so that we could restore their confidence. On the other front we should actively expose India’s subversive activities geared towards destroying our peace.