Realising the gravity of the water and energy situation, which has resulted due to failure of successive governments to build any big multipurpose water reservoir during the last 25 years, the authorities have now decided to go ahead with practical work on 4,500 MW Diamer-Bhasha Dam from mid-2009.
To be built on Indus River, about 300km upstream of Tarbela Dam and about 40km downstream of Chilas town (Diamer district, Northern Areas), this highest roller compacted concrete dam in the world is planned to be built by 2016 at an estimated cost of $8.5 billion.
Diamer-Bhasha dam will have a height of 272 metres and a spillway with 14 gates, each 11.5 metre x 16.24 metre. The dam will have a gross water storage capacity of 8.1 MAF and a live storage capacity of 6.4 MAF.
Nature has blessed Pakistan with enough hydel resources to meet its growing needs of electricity/irrigation, over the next 15 years, if these resources are harnessed adequately and methodically. Though essential for socio-economic progress/prosperity, due to lack of political will in the past and consensus now, Pakistan has so far been able to utilise only 13 per cent of its hydel resources by constructing reservoirs, barrages and dams.
Resultantly, water and energy scarcity have emerged as main impediments to the sustained growth of agriculture and industry. Experts feel that if more water reservoirs are not built, the shortage of water would increase to 100 million acre feet (MAF) by 2013 and to 150 MAF by 2025. The water scenario will become more critical, especially when the storage capacity of the existing mega reservoirs has depleted by 28 per cent due to silt/slush.
Presently, there are seven major dams/water reservoirs in Pakistan. These are Mangla, Tarbela, Warsak, Hub, Khanpur, Chashma and Simly. The total storage capacity of these reservoirs has already reduced to 11.98 MAF from 16.637 MAF. The failure of the successive governments to build any big water reservoir, with the exception of Ghazi Barotha, following completion of the Simly and Khanpur dams in 1983, has further added to the woes of the country.
In addition to Mangla dam, Kalabagh dam was to be build in replacement for the waters of the rivers of Satluj, Ravi and Bias, which were given to India under the World Bank brokered Indus Basin Treaty, but Kalabagh dam could not be executed due to politicking, thus depriving the country of funds earmarked by the World Bank for completion of this vital project. What was the motive of the anti-Kalabagh dam lobby? To turn barren Punjab’s vast tracts of land, which were hitherto irrigated by waters of the three rivers entrusted to India under the Indus Basin Treaty, and a food granary into a food deficit land! Or divide the public opinion on this issue? It seems that the inimical forces have, at least, succeeded for the time being in their twin objectives – delaying Kalabagh dam’s construction and creating dissent regarding this project.
As far as electricity is concerned, Wapda has been projecting since early 1990s that electricity shortage was bound to become acute in 2006, 2010 and 2015 unless appropriate measures were taken to increase energy production. The authorities responded to Wapda’s calls by launching, during the year 2000, a ‘Vision 2025 Programme’ aimed at raising the annual generating capacity of electricity to: 8,800mw from nuclear, 32,660mw from hydel, 19,910mw from coal and 91,520mw from gas/oil fired thermal stations, against 462mw from nuclear, 6,460mw from hydel, 200mw from coal and 12,500mw from gas/oil thermal stations till 2007. In addition, the Vision 2025 programme envisages obtaining 9,700mw of electricity from alternative sources of energy.
While Pakistan has been able to utilise only 13 per cent of its hydel resources during the last six decades, some countries make optimum use of these resources. For example, the USA has developed 497 per cent storage capacity of the annual flow of river Colorado, Egypt 281 per cent on river Nile and India 35 per cent on Satluj and Bias Basin. Meanwhile, fearing scarcity of water, many nations remain engaged in building mega water reservoirs. China is building 95 major dams with a height of 200 feet or more, Turkey 51, Iran 48, Japan 40 and India 10.
Naturally, Pakistan’s inability to harness its water resources surprised many a visiting dignitaries. During a visit to Pakistan in 1998, President Suleman Demirel of Turkey was flown over Indus River to show him the Karakoram mountains. In his book ‘Glimpses into the corridors of power’ the then minister for water and power, Gohar Ayub Khan, writes: En route Demirel asked one of his ministers to look out of the window and tell him what he could see. The minister replied: “I see vast barren mountains”. The president asked him to have a better look, but the minister gave him the same answer. The president looked out and said, “Look at Indus River, it is untapped power for Pakistan”.
According to Gohar Ayub, Indus River upstream from Tarbela has nearly seven locations on which dams to store water and produce electricity can be built. The one on which work could start at the earliest is the Bhasha Dam.
Pakistan’s previous government can rightly take credit for realising the gravity of the situation and initiating work not only on water conservation/irrigation projects but also on hydropower projects. In addition to construction of new multipurpose dams, raising Mangla Dam height, the outgoing government initiated schemes seeking extension in the canal network and building of some hydropower plants.
In fact, under Vision 2025 programme, Wapda has already started work on a number of hydropower projects, including Alai Khawar, Khan Khawar and Dabeer Khawar which would, on completion, add 21mw, 72mw and 130mw electricity, respectively, to the national grid.
Meanwhile, work on Rs128.4 billion 969mw Neelam-Jhelum Hydropower project, which was approved by the federal cabinet on December 12, 2007, has already started. In addition, feasibility studies on a number of hydropower projects, including 540mw Bonji and 600mw Kohala, are in progress. Completion of these projects would increase Pakistan’s annual hydropower production to 42,000mw.
As the hydel power is economical to thermal and other sources of energy, if it is used on a wider scale it can provide tariff relief to consumers, involve Pakistani manpower in the planning, designing and manufacturing of machinery besides accelerating the pace of economic development in the country in general and the remote rural areas in particular.
For electricity generation, coal is another option, however, despite large deposits, which exceed 185 billion tons, Pakistan is producing very little quantity of electricity from coal. Pakistan’s Vision 2025 Programme envisages increasing electricity production from coal-based thermal plants to 19,910mw.
Presently, Pakistan is obtaining 12,500mw electricity from oil and gas fired thermal power stations. However, the country plans to increase electricity generation from this source to 91,520mw. For obtaining additional 79,220mw electricity from thermal power, Pakistan would need to import large quantities of gas and oil, which would further increase Pakistan’s dependence on imported energy, if new discoveries are not made in the country.
