From the time when the new political dispensation in Pakistan has parted ways with erstwhile-US imported- policy of using force through military means to curb rising wave of militancy in its tribal areas, US pressure has been mounting on Pakistan to do more and more. Still in its early days, the new civilian set up refused to follow American dictates and signed peace deals with militants in Swat and Waziristan.
The start was impressive with signing of Bhurban accord, which pledged to restore pre-November 3 judiciary, provide relief to common man, to strengthen democratic norms by empowering institutions and impeaching Mushrraf. Many eyebrows were raised in the West about the sagacity and logic of striking accords with rogue elements keeping in view the past experience. All such previous deals failed and turned out to be time buying tactics which emboldened militants to regroup and recuperate. The recent statement of US Army Gen. David D. McKiernan speaks volume for this skepticism: “I can't tell you for sure the overtures they've made to tribes in Pakistan are directly related to the increase in violence in Afghanistan,"
The initial euphoria that engulfed the whole country after February 18 election has dashed down on the ground. Political shenanigans of the rulers by reneging from their promises have disappointed the masses. 100 days have passed by, but the new government has given nothing to people except more confusion, chaos and disappointment. The way currently concluded Bara operation was launched and approached by the incumbent government speaks volumes for the top leadership’s confusion and indifference towards the most pressing issue, which has put our survival at stake. Mutual distrust and lack of confidence between the government and all political parties, including its coalition partner, are not good signs. Neither there exists a comprehensive national counterinsurgency/ terrorism policy, nor is there any consensus among the ruling coalition partners as how to deal with rising levels of militancy in the country.
US and Pakistan have to swallow the bitter pill that both the ‘military means’ (use of force) and ‘policy of dialogue’ (reconciliation) to deal with militancy have failed. While former fans more insurgency and militancy, the latter gives militants more time to regroup and convalesce to carry out their activities with renewed zeal and vigor. Both the US and Pakistan have failed to come up with a viable alternative policy to deal with militancy in Pak-Afghan border region. Present regime’s three-pronged policy of reconciliation through dialogue, rehabilitation through socio economic uplift and using force as last resort is not yielding results as it has been nothing more than a mere rhetoric. Nothing has been done to win the confidence of people in tribal areas. It was ANP, which was doing all the dealing with militants, and federal government distanced itself from the whole process lest it may not earn the ire of Washington.
As Bush’s era is drawing to a close, the mounting valance in Afghanistan in increasing the pressure on Bush administration. Bush is extremely worried about his legacy. The current rating and poll surveys show Bush’s public standing is at all times low for his mismanagement of foreign policy, Iraq and economic slump. He wants to end his second and final term on a high note so that it not only salvages his persona in public but also to create a favorable environment for his party nominee John McCain to win the upcoming November 2008 presidential elections, which by the way seems a distant possibility.
Of late, Iraq has been showcased as a success story as insurgency and violence has somewhat subsided in the war-torn country and a semblance of stability is returning. With Iraq being mirrored as a success story, focus of attention is shifting towards our tribal areas and Afghanistan. Once again we are in international media spotlight for all unenviable and wrong reasons-thanks to legacies of Zia era and our support of militants. The dream of strategic depth in Afghanistan has turned into a strategic nightmare. In its July 11, 2008 editorial New York Times noted: “The swelling forces of Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters in Pakistan’s border region pose a grave threat to American and NATO troops in Afghanistan.” Alarmingly, the Times noted: “The flow may reflect a change that is making Pakistan, not Iraq, the preferred destination for some Sunni extremists from the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia who are seeking to take up arms against the West.”
This has come on the back of the news that the US aircraft carrier, Abraham Lincoln, has moved from the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea to support US operations inside Afghanistan, where the number of attacks are up in the east of the country by forty per cent from a year ago. According to Washington, there has been 40 per cent increase in attacks on US forces from Pakistan into Afghanistan this year. This should set the alarming bells ringing for policy managers in Islamabad. Ironically at such a crucial juncture when Pakistan stands at cross roads of history top leadership is out of the country. Such is sorry state of affairs in our Islamic Republic.
Timing of such threatening statements is very critical as they coincide with stern warnings being given to Iran by Bush administration of a possible invasion. The Hawks in Bush administration have long been itching to launch an attack on Iran. This is their last chance if Bush befools himself by listening to their insane voices. The fastly changing political horizon and current of political happenings clearly suggests that coming six months will be very difficult for us. In a recent interview, Admiral Michael Mullen asserted: “Gravest threat to American security lies in Pakistan’s tribal areas along Pak-Afghan border and not Iraq”. Hamid Karzai’s said: “Afghanistan has the right of self-defense against the Islamic militants across the border.” Every one knows Karzai is speaking Washington’s language. The attack on Indian embassy in Kabul and subsequent maligning of Pakistan by Delhi and Kabul does not bode well for us.
The foregoing statements should be seen along with interviews of three US lawmakers (who recently visited Pakistan) to a Houston based newspaper: “US would conduct ‘hot pursuits’ across the border into Pakistan if attacks on our forces from FATA areas were not halted.” On the night between Thursday and Friday, US jets bombarded Angood Ada area near Wana which injured 11 people including 9 security personnel. The unannounced visit of US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Michael Mullen with top military leaders on July 12 makes it abundantly clear that US is considering carrying out raids inside our territory. Attacks inside Pakistan will only add to militancy and extremism.
This is about time that we have to give up the policy of hunting with the hounds and running with the hare because the problem is very real and of immense concern. We have to denounce our support for the militant elements. Our national leadership should rise above their petty political dispute to save the country from the doom that is hanging over its head. Instead of mincing words we should clearly tell our US counterparts that extremism and militancy have hurt Pakistan as much as any other country. More Pakistani security personnel have died fighting militants than from the US-led coalition. No country has suffered at the hands of extremism as much as Pakistan has suffered. Such provocative statements and reckless air-bombardments will only add to endless list of problems for US and Pakistan. If war on terror has to be won then we have to win it together. Problems of Pakistan and Afghanistan are intricately intertwined. Such hawkish attitude by Americans and NATO forces will take the current counter-terrorism effort nowhere. What we need is an increase of ISAF troops on Afghan side of the bolder matching Pakistan’s deployments of 100,000 troops and 1200 check posts to check the infiltration of insurgents across the border, more coordinated efforts among NATO and Pakistani forces and above all patience because fight against terrorism is going to be a long haul.