Next four to six weeks are of great importance as these will bring hectic activity for long term changes with regard to the proposed constitutional amendments that aim at decisively cutting the president’s powers and the restoration of judges, according to political observers and people close to top politicians. A crucial meeting between the PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari and PML(N) chief Nawaz Sharif is on the cards as soon as the latter returns to the country from London, or some sources say, the meeting may take place in the UK’s capital. The meeting is likely to break the political stalemate as the two leaders may set the agenda for next weeks including the tabling of the constitutional package, a source, who knows the political developments said.
“Next few weeks will determine the future of the PPP-PML(N) coalition,” the source said. “If the next round of talks between the two biggest parties don’t make headway, then it will seal the future of the coalition. It is make or break situation.”
The issues that are likely to consume most of the time include the method of reinstating the judiciary sacked last year by Pervez Musharraf and the question of impeaching the president. The two political parties have no differences over amendments relating to cutting the powers of the president and instead empowering the parliament and the prime minister. According to sources in the PPP and PML(N) the amendments relating to president’s powers have already been agreed upon and these may be passed without any controversy apart from the resistance expected from the presidency. However, the real problem arises from reinstating the judges, and according to sources, Nawaz Sharif is ready to take a step forward, compromising on his original position and he will expect Zardari to take a step back from his stated position.
Sources told Pulse that Nawaz Sharif has, in principle, agreed to retain the post Nov. 3 judiciary to get the sacked judges including Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry reinstated. The PML(N) leaders have time and again stated that the party was ready to swallow the bitter pill for a greater cause. Sharif is hoping that by accepting the stand of Zardari of retaining the present judges, he would be able to secure the agreement of the PPP leader on impeaching Musharraf. Now the ball is in Zardari’s court, the source said. During their forthcoming meeting Sharif will put his proposals and expect a positive response from the PPP co-chairman, he said.
The issue of restoring the judges and impeaching the president, which has divided the ruling coalition, is much more complicated that it appears because it involves guaranters including the US and the Saudi Arabians. While the Bush administration is adamant on seeing Musharraf as the president for years to come, the Saudis have indicated to the ruling coalition to indemnify all actions of Musharraf of past eight years and give him a safe and respectable exit by the end of this year. Political observers say that the pressure from the US is keeping the PPP for taking any extreme measures to oust Musharraf. That is why, zardari in his latest statement said that the PPP wants to give safe and dignified exit to Musharraf at time of his choosing.
The PPP-PML(N) divide is empowering Musharraf, giving him the courage to make public appearances in recent days. He made three public appearances in Karachi, which is probably the only city in Pakistan where he doesn’t feel politically isolated. Since the February 18 elections brought his opponents into power, the president can no longer feel comfortable in Islamabad, Lahore, Peshawar or Quetta. He has opted to stay inside the presidency or his camp office in Rawalpindi. However, the power struggle between the PPP and the PML(N) since the elections has given him the opportunity to exploit the situation.
Zardari has declared Musharraf an illegal and unconstitutional president and wants him to resign from his post voluntarily. He has said that he wants Musharraf to walk away rather than face impeachment and add to the confrontation. The PPP co-chairman’s repeated statements should have been enough indication to the former General that it is time to go and there no point resisting. The president’s refusal to go away will only add to confrontation between the political forces and the establishment that he represents, which has already diverted the attention of the ruling coalition from addressing the economic issues of the people. There is strong feeling growing among the PML(N) members that Zardari and his coterie of un-elected advisers, who are holding key government positions have nothing to lose in this political game as the will just walk away to their respective business outside the country, if the PPP fails to deliver. There is no element of success that can be recalled or counted in the first 100 days of Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani’s government. The ruling coalition has not moved an inch forward and addressing the problems of the people.
In such a situation, the PML(N) doesn’t want to rejoin the cabinet and share the failures of Gilani government, one PML(N) leader said, requesting anonymity. When the top leaders and parliamentarians of the PPP have admitted that the party was losing popularity because of Zardari’s unclear stand on judges and Musharraf, the PML(N) is not a fool to join hands with it in the government and risk becoming unpopular, the party source said. In a recent interview, Nawaz Sharif said that he was disappointed and dismayed at Zardari for not keeping his word on reinstating judges and that he risked becoming unpopular. According to latest opinion polls, Nawaz Sharif was becoming more popular, particularly, in Punjab because of his commitments toward ousting Musharraf and reinstating the judges. So he is quite happy to sit back and watch the developments closely, while preparing for the next elections -- may be snap polls given, the ineffectiveness of the PPP-led government, the PML(N) source said.