Just when everyone thought that recent peace deals signed between the new coalition government and the militants in Swat and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) will end the intense years-long conflict, surveillance by American drones registered an increase, while attacks were carried out inside the Pakistani border to jeopardize peace efforts.
While it is questionable whether the drone attacks killed Al Qaeda and Taliban militants or their supporters, it surely caused a trust deficit between the signatories of the deal. The people of tribal areas got hit by missiles from the American drones, even our soldiers were killed in an attack by US-Afghan forces on a border post, renewing the conflict. The peace deals became ineffective as the militants took up arms once again and the security forces reportedly launched a massive operation after reports that the tribal militants were about to take over settled areas including Peshawar.
This is the second time in two years that such peace deals have been scrapped not because of the weakness in documenting the deals, but because the Americans sabotaged it. In 2006, the peace deals between the militants and the military regime of Pervez Musharraf did not last long as the Americans, not happy with moves for peace in the region, increased attacks inside Pakistan. They fear that the tribal militants would use negotiations to increase attacks on Nato and coalition forces across the border in Afghanistan. According to Pakistani security sources, the Americans have carried out more than 120 attacks from across the border in the past five years. According to American intelligence officials, these attacks have been ineffective, the US newspapers have reported.
The American attacks including the air strike last month killing Pakistani troops has inflamed tensions between Pakistan’s new government and the Bush administration. So much so, the Pakistani military in a statement termed it a `cowardly attack,’ which might affect the Pak-US cooperation in the so-called war against terror. The US anti-terrorism strategy to tackle Al Qaeda has generated differences among different American intelligence agencies making the policy ineffective, the New York Times reported this week.  
“American intelligence officials say that the Qaeda hunt in Pakistan, code-named Operation Cannonball by the C.I.A. in 2006, was often undermined by bitter disagreements within the Bush administration and within the C.I.A., including about whether American commandos should launch ground raids inside the tribal areas. Inside the C.I.A., the fights included clashes between the agency’s outposts in Kabul, Afghanistan, and Islamabad. There were also battles between field officers and the Counterterrorist Center at C.I.A. headquarters, whose preference for carrying out raids remotely, via Predator missile strikes, was derided by officers in the Islamabad station as the work of “boys with toys,” according to the newspaper report.
The New York Times revealed a bitter truth that most Pakistanis hated to believe and the country’s civil and military bureaucracy and the government tried to hide. The truth has been brought on record that American operatives are present in Islamabad and directly involved in operations in the tribal areas. A large number of Pakistani security officials strongly believe that these operatives have close contacts with tribal area militants and they are instigating and providing material support to the rebels to sabotage the peace process.
“We are clueless as to how and from where these rebels are getting the money to fund their operations. The coalition forces have secured the Afghan side of the border and Pakistani military is covering the Pakistan side of border, still the rebels are getting uninterrupted supply of sophisticated weapons,’’ one security official said.
The last week’s operation by security forces in Khyber agency is confusing as the two sides were signing peace deals including in Swat and Waziristan. According to Interior Adviser Rehman Malik, the security forces faced no resistance from militants while capturing key installations in the agency. The operation was very successful and the government has restored peace in the region, he said. Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani said the reason for carrying out operation in Khyber agency was that the militants had challenged the writ of the government and the law by kidnapping Christian residents in Peshawar and holding public hangings of alleged US spies.
Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League rightly pointed out that they were neither taken into confidence nor did they know why this operation was launched. This is a question many people are asking. The launching of operation two days before Richard Boucher indicates a foul play and an attempt to convince the Bush administration that the government was doing everything in its power to combat militants and there was no need for the US operatives to start an operation in the tribal region.
Of late, there are indications from the State Department that President Bush is keen on capturing Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden before his second and final term ends this year. Capturing the Al Qaeda leader will also help the Republicans to retain the presidency for another four years in elections this year, diplomatic sources say. Both Pervez Musharraf and Asif Ali Zardari are hoping that the Republican candidate defeats the Democrat aspirant for the slot of American presidency, which will ensure continuation of US policy toward Pakistan, which means both Musharraf and Zaradri can survive in power. The Democrats are advocating US policy away from Musharraf and they are talking about dealing with political forces in Pakistan including Nawaz Sharif. New York Times reported that before Bush leaves the office, he wants a comprehensive operation to capture Osama bin Laden, but the implementation of plan has been delayed because of differences within the CIA and the State Department. Such operations were halted in 2003 and 2005 for various reasons, it said.
“The government of President George W. Bush administration last year drafted a plan to make it easer for the Pentagon’s Special Operations forces to launch missions into the snow-capped mountains of Pakistan to capture or kill top leaders of Al Qaeda. Skip to next paragraph Intelligence reports for more than a year had been streaming in about Osama bin Laden’s terrorism network rebuilding in the Pakistani tribal areas, a problem that had been exacerbated by years of missteps in Washington and the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, sharp policy disagreements, and turf battles between American counterterrorism agencies.
The new plan, outlined in a highly classified Pentagon order, was intended to eliminate some of those battles. And it was meant to pave a smoother path into the tribal areas for American commandos, who for years have bristled at what they see as Washington’s risk-averse attitude toward Special Operations missions inside Pakistan. They also argue that catching Mr. bin Laden will come only by capturing some of his senior lieutenants alive,” according to the New York Times report.
It is obvious that the PPP government is buying time to avoid incursion by US forces in the tribal area. The US intelligence officials are convinced that Osama bin Laden’s network is regrouping in Pakistan and the State Department and Pentagon officials have already said that now Sept 11-like attacks may come from Al Qaeda bases in Pakistan’s tribal region. The PPP government is caught between a hard place and a rock. If it launches a full-fledged operation in tribal areas, it risks bringing the reaction from militants into Pakistani cities taking the country back to 2007 situation when suicide bombings peaked and the security forces suffered unprecedented loss. If it doesn’t move against the militants, it risks facing a situation where the US forces would enter Pakistani areas in hot pursuit.