A three-member Lahore High Court bench disqualified former prime minister Nawaz Sharif from contesting in the June 26 by-elections. The decision came three days before the scheduled voting and after weeks of delay and wrangling between the Election Commission and the court over announcing the ruling. The order also eliminated a staunch Pervez Musharraf opponent from the election scene and barred him from returning to the parliament, where he could have strengthened his party’s position and increased pressure on Musharraf to resign. The popularly known as ‘PCO judges’ for their allegiance to the president, barred currently the most popular leader in Pakistan.
Whether the PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari is more popular than Nawaz Sharif is debatable because an America-based research group, Terror-Free Tomorrow, conducted the latest popularity vote in a nationwide opinion poll and concluded Sharif was far-ahead than any other leader in getting people’s approval. Sharif’s popularity has surged because of his stand against Musharraf, his commitment to restore the judges sacked by the president last year and his open criticism of the US President George W Bush. The PPP leader Zardari is on a downward slide since leading his party to No. 1 position in the February 18 elections because of his reluctance to remove the president and his dilly-dallying over reinstating the judges. Musharraf is the least popular leader and hardly matters in public’s popularity vote, though it is a separate issue that he still refuses to bow out -- with dignity, if there is any.
It is all about perceptions that shape the public opinion and that perception also influences the voting patterns in elections. The growing perception in the country is that the PPP, after the death of Benazir Bhutto, is deficient in leadership and its key position holders like Zardari are too weak to lead the party and the nation. Zardari’s prolonged stay in jail, his dealings with the establishment and the NRO through which he and his wife Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan after the withdrawal of corruption cases against them, influenced his personality. After all, Zardari was never a politician or a leader and he has been thrown into this situation of leading the party and the country by circumstances rather than because of his deeds or political acumen. It is this inner weakness that his holding him back from taking tough and daring decisions.
Since the PPP assumed power through its prime minister in last week of March, the only daring thing the party and its nominated prime minister has done is the release of judges sacked and put under house arrest by Musharraf. Since then, the party and the coalition government has been subservient to the dictates of the establishment, according to one perception. Nothing has changed in the past three months to the dislike of the people, who had voted for a change in the national elections. All the president’s men sit comfortably in their positions calling the shots. The Bush administration keeps on inducting its people at key government positions including the appointment of former Pakistani ambassador to the United States as the security adviser to the prime minister. More such America-sponsored appointments are yet to come, particularly, in the security department. The PPP backed away from their commitment to reinstate the judges under US pressure and the PPP leadership has got its hands tied under the NRO and there isn’t much it can do to bring about the change that people of Pakistan desire, this is also a public perception.
Another perception is that the PPP, unlike its public posture of opposing Musharraf, is actually conniving with the president and the forces of the establishment that he represents since the February elections. Sources close to the PPP-Musharraf dealing say the only time when the PPP started moving away from the president was when he imposed emergency rule in November without the approval of Bhutto. It moved further away from the Presidency after the assassination of Bhutto on December 27. Since then the establishment developed effective contacts with Zardari and the other non-elected PPP leadership forcing the PPP to accept the US-brokered deal between Benazir Bhutto and Musharraf. A clear evidence to that effect is the appointment of non-elected PPP leaders to key decision-making posts including the interior, law, defense and foreign affairs ministries.
While the PPP keeps getting smooth sailing, the PML-N is getting tough times at the hands of the establishment. The latest move by the establishment to get Nawaz Sharif disqualified from contesting the election is part of the PPP-Musharraf deal and this perception is getting stronger with every passing day. The scheme of things envisaged by the Bush administration last year -- that PPP be brought to power to give democratic look to the dictatorial Musharraf regime -- is working. Nawaz Sharif’s party sprung a surprise in the February elections by getting 67 seats in the vote and increased its margin to 90 by getting reserve seats on proportional bases. Those gains by Sharif were not planned by the deal-brokers and it had to be effectively countered at some stage. Sharif is being made to wait as the PPP-Musharraf partnership is allowed to flourish until the US administration completes its targets in the region, the perception goes. Currently, the most popular Pakistani leader, according to Terror-Free Tomorrow is being marginalised to suit American interests.
Nawaz Sharif has emerged, by far, as the most popular political leader in Pakistan, according to the survey. The poll conducted few weeks before the by-elections, a striking 86 per cent of Pakistanis have a favorable opinion of Sharif, who has also seen a steady rise in his popularity, from 57 per cent favorable in Terror Free Tomorrow’s August 2007 poll, to 74 per cent in January 2008 and 86 per cent today. Those with a very favourable opinion have almost doubled since January 2008 to 43 per cent now -- a level no other political figure in Pakistan comes even close to. By comparison, Zardari just has a 13 per cent very favourable rating, according to the survey.
 “If national elections were held today, Mr Sharif’s party, the PML-N, would emerge as the clear winner, garnering 42 per cent of the vote to the PPP’s 32 per cent. The PML-N has witnessed a significant surge in popularity. From only 15 per cent saying they would vote for them in our August 2007 poll, to 25 per cent in our pre-election January poll, the party today stands at 42 per cent, the most popular party in Pakistan,” the report on opinion poll said.
The Pakistani nation, which appears much more wiser and aware because of the emergence of television channels, is likely to get influenced by events much more rapidly than ever before. The public perception is created and demolished in no time. Benazir Bhutto felt the burden immediately after she struck the NRO deal with Musharraf and she had to take a tough position against Musharraf when she returned to Pakistan to build her public image. If a leader as popular as Benazir Bhutto knew that she would have to bear the brunt of dealing with a dictator, the Zardari of today stands no chance to face the public wrath. It is just a matter of time that he starts feeling that public perception is no longer favourable for the PPP.