President Musharraf will have the last laugh if Mian Nawaz Sharif were to part company with the PPP in the ruling coalition, even though the chances of PML-N quitting the government are rather obscure. From all accounts Nawaz Sharif is not likely to get his way through, on the question of rehabilitation of deposed judges, which he had declared was a top priority on his agenda. It was therefore a ‘do-or-die’ battle for him, which he ill-afford to lose. There are under the circumstances, two options available, to the high priest of judges’ restoration. Either he settles for a compromise and present the agreed formula as the best possible deal he could extract out the PPP thus shifting the onus of deviating from the Bhurban accord on Zardari and company, or recall his ministers from the federal cabinet to acknowledge failure of his mission.
In the wake of Nawaz Sharif making a couple of false moves to proclaim that all differences have been resolved and the coalition partners were wholeheartedly together to pursue the mission of restoring judges, one has been led to suspect that there was something terribly wrong with the way the negotiations were held between the coalition partners. There was either a communication gap between the two, or what – now critics believe, Asif Zardari has been taking Nawaz Sharif for a ride. Bhurban accord was a sham proclamation, and so was its reiteration some weeks later. If this was not the case – Nawaz Sharif would not have rushed to Dubai to secure another understanding from Asif Zardari – close to the end of the April 30 deadline. Zardari’s rather mysterious disappearance to Dubai at that critical juncture called for a convincing explanation. It was a deliberate move to avoid talks, critics have alleged. Zardari, they said, was obviously trying to drag his feet.
What appeared to be a simple proposition in the wake of Bhurban accord, as everybody believed the government would have no problem meeting the 30-day deadline has somehow acquired a paradoxical dimension. Asif Zardari, it is being widely said does not want the judges to return to pre-November 3 position. He wants the PCO judges to remain on the bench, while adding the restored judges to raise the Supreme Court strength from 17 to 27. No judge would be displaced, he had said at Bhurban, even though Fakhruddin Ibrahim, a member of the resolution drafting committee (who incidentally was Nawaz Sharif counsel when he filed a petition in the Supreme Court against his forced exile) resigned before the committee deliberation could get underway saying “to retain the PCO judges is unlawful and therefore unacceptable to him”. Small wonder Maulana Fazlur Rehman who toes the Zardari line on the judges’ issue said rather early in the day that he saw no prospects of resolution of the judges’ issue before the May 12 deadline.
How far Nawaz Sharif would be willing to swallow his pride and settle for a compromise is anybody’s guess. In any case he has to keep his constituency in good humor and lawyers would not let him wriggle out of commitments. An honourable course of action for him would be to quit the coalition and charge the PPP with subverting the Bhurban Accord. Most probably he would not resort to such a drastic option. To save the coalition in Punjab would also bear on his mind, and he would not wish to ‘burn his boats’ insofar as his dealing with PPP is concerned. In case Nawaz Sharif was hard pressed to disassociate himself from a PPP-loaded resolution, a convenient way out for him would be to quietly withdraw from the coalition government but keep the coalition with PPP in Punjab intact, and pledge support to the ruling coalition from outside.
An odd scenario being projected, if and when, realignment of coalition forces was called for, also merits some attention. If the PML-N were to quit the coalition, it was said, the PPP could consider making a deal with QML, or a section of it (minus Ch Brothers as the rumour goes) and adjust the erstwhile king party on the ruling coalition. It was not surprising as several press reports, speculated about the possibility and suggested that the so-called Musharraf camp followers would be more than happy to seize the opportunity, and nothing would please the presidency more if its original prescription for power-sharing was renewed. A section of critics still believes that the MQM was a ‘Trojan horse’ which could pave way for more ‘pro-Musharraf assaults’ on the ruling coalition. Suggestions from the presidency that the QML should change its leadership have been seen in some quarters as a wake up call for men to gear up for a new power equation. One may be accused of taking the joke too far, out there are still some opinion leaders who believe that the “Musharraf-Benazir” power sharing deal was only shelved and not abandoned.
Zardari was said be a ‘smooth operator’. He has hitherto said ‘yes’ to whatever Nawaz Sharif shouted from rooftops, but did not publicly show any malice towards President Musharraf. He has patiently heard his coalition partners demand of immediate removal of Musharraf from the presidency, but it has now become absolutely clear that there was room for ‘impeaching the president’ on his agenda. Barring some symbolic gestures to keep his coalition partners in good humor like not personally attending Prime Minister Yusuf Gilani’s, oath-taking ceremony he has not made a single move which could be seen as ‘confronting the president’. He has been accorded VVIP treatment even before the PPP government was installed in power and his party prime minister has had cordial relations with the presidency, to be more exact strictly in accordance with the protocol. Gilani went to see off President Musharraf at the airport as he departed on his China visit and two of his senior colleagues, foreign minister and defence minister were part of president’s entourage. And as President Musharraf and Prime Minister Gilani stood side by side to review the Pakistan Day parade it was apparent that the two had established a working relationship.
The PPP component of the coalition partnership is quire prepared to co-exist with the Presidency and so far it has had no problem doing business with Musharraf. So is the case with ANP and JUI-F. The difficulty arises, as Nawaz Sharif has not reconciled to accepting Musharraf as head of the state, even though he has advised by some opinion leaders to follow the policy ‘let the sleeping dog sleep’. Interestingly, Prime Minister Gilani said recently that the President Musharraf had no intention of ‘intervention’ in the affairs of the government or resort to using, or threaten to use his discretionary power under Article 58-2(b). The message brought home by Gilani was simple if the government did not provoke the presidency Musharraf was willing to go along with the coalition. However, Nawaz Sharif camp followers have been alleging from time to time that the Presidency has been turned into the ‘hotbed of intrigue and conspiracies’ against the elected government. Musharraf wants to subvert the democratic process is their usual charge, and thus the rationale for preempting him ‘If we don’t act first and remove him from the presidency’, they insist, ‘he will destroy the system’.
The key question is what Nawaz Sharif likely to do in case the question of restoring the deposed judges was resolved without any opposition from the Presidency. Would he still insist the Musharraf has a relic of the dictatorial era with whom he would to agree to do business under any circumstances or would he swallow his pride and wily nilly accept Musharraf as ‘necessary evil’. The question is all-important since its outcome would determine the course of partnership between the PPP and the PML-N.
