The six-weak old four-party coalition government dominated by Pakistan Peoples Party and Pakistan Muslim League(N) split, causing great despair and despondency among the people of Pakistan. The optimists couldn’t believe that the break-up happened so soon. The pessimists said their prediction that alliance won’t be able to survive the test of time came true much before they had anticipated.
The strongest coalition government in Pakistan’s history collapsed after jittery six weeks giving a resounding victory to the forces of the Establishment symbolized by Pervez Musharrraf. The break up comes at a time when political forces should have strengthened their position by forging unity and showing the door to the Establishment and its nominee, Musharrraf.
It comes at a time when, according to the World Food Programme, half of Pakistan’s population is struggling to get food. With the Establishment gaining strength and the food and power shortages increasing, the unraveling of the coalition, among other problems, will fuel social unrest.
WHY SPLIT?
This is the most intriguing question disturbing the minds of the people. Why can’t the political forces show unity and together fight the forces of establishment. What made the partners to part ways at a crucial time when they should be united in defeating the dictatorship, and eliminating poverty, food and electricity shortages? Why can’t the political forces foresee the intrigues and conspiracies of the establishment of divide and rule? The answer perhaps lies in the fact that the two sides are not showing sincerity and don’t trust each other.
For a start, neither Nawaz Sharif nor Asif Ali Zardari is interested in installing a truly independent judiciary. Both appear to hiding skeletons in the cupboards. The PPP is apprehensive of reinstating a strong judiciary in the shape of deposed judges, who may or may not be independent but they proved to be stubborn and strong minded. The PPP has always complained that it never got a favorable judiciary, starting from the hanging of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto to the cases of corruption against Zardari.
So it believes that this time it can install pro-PPP judges in the Supreme Court led by Chief Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar. On the other hand, the PML(N) believes that deposed Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, once reinstated,, can trigger a challenge to Musharrraf’s re-election in October last year and oust him through a legal order. That will save the political forces from taking extreme measures to oust Musharraf or move for his impeachment in the parliament, where numbers’ game could be very crucial and it may start another round of horse trading.
So, basically, it appears to be a clash of interests between the PPP and the PML((N) that stops the two parties from reaching a common point for reinstating the judges. That is where the stalemate occurred and is likely to remain although the PPP is giving signals that it will continue talks with the PML((N) leadership on finding a way to restore the judges.
Secondly, the PPP is apprehensive that any move by the coalition government to reinstate the judges may be hampered by the Presidency, which still has many constitutional powers that make the office of the president stronger than that of the prime minister. The PPP doesn’t want to take confrontational posture against Musharrraf, until its takes away his powers of dismissing the parliament and making key appointments in the civil and military bureaucracy. The PML((N) believes that with the backing of the parliament and the coalition government, the president won’t have any moral ground for blocking the government’s moves to reinstate the judges.
The third cause of split comes from US interests in Pakistani domestic issues as these are directly related to its so-called war against terrorism. The Bush administration has already said that it supports Musharraf, which means it will oppose any move to oust him. Key officials in the Bush administration have maintained that Musharrraf has a role to play in Pakistan’s future politics.
Despite the fact that the PPP leadership doesn’t want to see Musharraf in the presidency, it is unable to move against him so as not to anger its US allies. There is a reason for the PPP to accept the American dictates, which can be seen in the deal struck between Benazir Bhutto and the Bush administration for ensuring the return of Bhutto back to Pakistan and back into power.
After all, it was the Bush administration that forced Musharrraf to develop working relationship with Bhutto and issue the controversial National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO), under which all corruption cases against Bhutto and Zardari were withdrawn. That deal hit snags when Musharrraf imposed Emergency Rule last November and could not be revived completely until the death of Ms Bhutto in December. Zardari, soon after taking over from Bhutto, carried forward the PPP-Musharraf deal, as Musharraf continued to shower favors on Zardari by ensuring that his appointed judges in the Supreme Court revived the NRO and removed the graduation condition for contesting the election.
The PML(N) leadership, on the other hand, has refused to accept US pressure on domestic matters and is adamant on ousting Musharraf from power as soon as possible. Nawaz Sharif doesn’t like a bit the nexus between PPP and Musharraf and the PPP leaders and ministers agreeing to have a working relationship with the presidency.
WHAT NEXT?
Every day fights break out among people waiting to buy flour, sugar and pulses at subsidized rates. Every day, people have to suffer because of power shortages that are increasing with the arrival of summer. Riots are erupting outside utility stores and on the streets as people find more difficult to feed themselves and their children and businesses are hurt because of electricity shortages that have shut factories and thrown laborers out of jobs.
With the coalition breaking and political uncertainty increasing, the social unrest stares back right in the face of policy makers in the government. It may be very unfortunate but Nawaz Sharif's pullout from the coalition government raises the potential for a new phase of confrontation. Instability and intrigues will gain momentum and the forces of Establishment will be seeking to widen the divide between Zardari and Nawaz Sharif.
It is very unlikely that the PML((N) will support the PPP-sponsored constitutional package bill on the restoration of judges if it contains provisions like curtailing the suo moto powers of the Chief Justice and reducing the retirement age. In that case the bill may not get through the parliament as the PPP, with PML(N) parting ways, doesn’t have a simple majority in the parliament, leave alone two thirds majority.
Nawaz Sharif may not immediately move to oust the PPP government at the center because that will jeopardize the existence of his government in Punjab, but soon he will be joining the All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM), the lawyers and the civil society members in their next round of demonstrations. The APDM, which includes Qazi Hussain Ahmed’s JI and other smaller parties, is flexing its muscles to launch country-wide protests if not a civil unrest movement. The lawyers will announce their future course of action on May 17 and it may include a long march to call for the restoration of judges.
The PML(N) has no moral ground to stop these protests in Punjab and in fact after the budget it may join these forces in Punjab . The PML((N) workers and supporters will force their leadership to participate in these protest meetings with full force. The third phase of movement for the restoration of the judiciary may bring a worse kind of political and social unrest and the country may see variety of street protests including those seeking food, others who need electricity to run their businesses and more who want restoration of the judges.
The PPP is perhaps aware of its sliding popularity, particularly in Punjab, because it is reneging on its pledge to reinstate the judges. That is why some of its leaders and ministers have started voicing concern on what appears to be the PPP’s support to Musharraf. A PPP minister this week said on GEO television that ``Musharrraf is a curse on the people of Pakistan. He is the de facto president, who refuses to give up without confrontation.”
This is in sharp contrast to earlier statements by other PPP leaders who said they have fine working relationship with Musharraf, as he is the constitutional president.
Given the realization among PPP leadership that the party is fast losing its popularity in the public because of its relations with Musharraf, the party may soon start distancing itself from the president. The party would be looking to dispel the impression that the PPP government is actually a continuation of PML(Q)’s previous government and bring about a change that people had voted for on February 18.
