The popular mandate in February 2008 elections has been rightly described as a vote against Musharraf-led establishment. The humiliating fall of the King’s Party from peoples grace was a logical corollary of the polls outcome. Political observers have since been probing into the causes of this dramatic shift in the electorates order of preferences, not so much the issue of the tally of seats bagged by the three principal contenders for power since none of them has been able to make a clean sweep, but the rejection of all the big guns closely associated with Musharraf regime. There is a broad consensus on some matters as almost everybody agrees, including some dejected stalwarts of the erstwhile King’s Party, that Musharraf regime was guilty of blatant arbitrary functioning to achieve its desired objectives. No one was convinced about Musharraf’s alibi for precipitating the judicial crisis, and imposition of Emergency on the pretext of facilitating the drive against ‘Islamic militants’ was seen as a crude attempt to remove the Supreme Court judges in order to manipulate a second presidential term. The upshot of popular perception about Musharraf’s wheeling and dealing was that he wanted to return to the presidency by hook or by crook.
The people may have been prone to condoning rule by decree, had the regime been able to deliver in providing security and succour to the common man. But as ‘suicide bombers’ went on killing innocent people, including no less a person than Benazir Bhutto, the regime added insult to injury by failure to check skyrocketing prices, disappearance of essential commodities from the market, and the constant menace of load-shedding and breakdown of gas supply. Thus democracy took it revenge by rejecting the regime, which had miserably failed to improve the quality of life of the citizens. The opposition parties, in particular PML-N, which have been demanding Musharraf’s resignation have a moral ground to make the claim, since the ‘godfather’ of the regime must accept responsibility for the disastrous performance of his ‘men’ and anyone associated with his regime in a free and fair expression of popular will. But then realpolitik has little to do with ethics, and those who manage to grab power are not prepared to voluntarily relinquish it. Small wonder President Musharraf has refused to oblige the opposition by quitting his job. On the face of it the combined opposition has the potential to muster two-third majority in the newly elected National Assembly to be able to impeach President Musharraf, but all the partners in the new coalition are not equally keen to pursue a collision course against the president. And as indicated by the ‘prime minister in waiting’ Makhdum Amin Fahim, the new government is likely to opt for cohabitation rather than confrontation with the president.
The hung assembly has fair chances of putting up a durable coalition, even though the PPP and the PML-N do not see eye to eye with each other on all major issues. The PPP has indeed emerged as the single largest party but it has not bagged as many seats as was expected, more so in the face of the so-called ‘sympathy wave’. On the contrary, it has suffered a setback in its own backyard, as it was able to win only 29 out of the 61 National Assembly seats from Sindh. The PML-N has done quite well in Punjab but has surely not swept the polls as it was initially believed. Of the 148 National Assembly seats from Punjab, it has won 59 seats, whereas the PPP is close behind with 48 seats. The QML has come a cropper but it cannot be dismissed as a non-factor in the ensuing power politics, with 42 seats in the National Assembly, 67 in the Punjab Assembly, and with 18 in Balochistan and a chance to lead a coalition in the province, it still has some leverage to bargain for a share in the bounty.
Musharraf’s chances to stay put in the Presidency are not entirely hopeless. While the Americans have assured him of continued support and cooperation, and they have been lobbying in Islamabad for a working relationship between the president and the new government, the quest for durable coalition partners is still on, as Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif, notwithstanding their agreement-in-principle to cooperate, have yet to work out the modalities of coalition formation. Above all, the writing on the wall can be read that the PPP and the PML-N, no matter how friendly and cooperative they are at the moment, are potential rivals for political power, and their alliance would always be susceptible to infighting.