The 2008 elections are marked as watershed elections for the future development of democracy in this country. President Pervez Musharraf, whose ownself and policies seem to have reflected on the poor performance of the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q), called the polls a day before they were held as Mother Elections. The turn out of the elections mobilized people’s grievances and aspirations for a new dawn or a march towards restoration of a true democracy in the country.  Nonetheless, the changes in Balochistan seem to have mobilized support for the PML-Q with writing on the wall of a coalition government with the JUI and independent playing the balancing factor. There will be a Baloch Sardar as the chief minister with least influence of nationalists inside the assembly.  And there may be political changes in the days ahead with a volatile race for power. The polling turn out was 28 per cent, not very bad despite the nationalists’ boycott, compared to 31 per cent in 2002.
Balochistan has far lagged behind other provinces.  Punjab is the leading province and enjoys the lion’s share. The NWFP despite political grievances and economic problems is comparatively a privileged province, having an established educational and social structure and enjoying a sufficient share in the higher echelons of the military/bureaucratic and other organizational structure of society; and an increasing level of political maturity.
Sindh may not seem that deprived. It being below par administratively and economically with an ethnic bifurcation between rural and urban has not been without enjoying a share in government.  Karachi being its port city and a nerve of the economic inflow of Pakistan stands an international importance. Sindh rural has provided three prime ministers and enjoys a political value under a representative system. But Balochistan indeed has little feeling of spring in the changing political weathers since the creation of Pakistan.
Balochistan is an ethnically divided province. Being the largest of the four provinces with an area of 347,056 sq. km. Balochistan is sparsely populated with the total population of 7,701,157 (1998 census) with the density of population as 12 persons per square. Its population comprises three major ethnic groups: the Baloch, Pushtoons and settlers who have migrated from different provinces or from India and settled there.  Afghan refugees are also a sizable portion of the population.  It constitutes an important geo-strategic position by linking Iran (1584 kilometers) and Afghanistan (1181 kilometers) with a 770-km coastline. 
It was raised to a province level in 1970 by an ordinance issued by President Yahya Khan. Though civilian rule returned in 1972-73, the political situation and lack of comprise between the centre and the province led to the dissolution of the NAP coalition government under Ataullah Mengal in May 1973.  In protest, the NWFP government also resigned.  The dissolution of Balochistan Assembly and putting of its leaders in jail was a political cruelty (arrest of NAP leaders under the Hyderabad conspiracy case) by Z. A. Bhutto was a political mistake for which he paid in the longer run.  It directly led to the outbreak of insurgency in the Marri area and triggered few minor insurgencies as a result of which a full-fledged military action took place in the area.
These were the ninth elections in Balochistan (1970, 1977, 1985, 1988, 1990,  1993, 1996, 2002, 2008) with 144 and 256 candidates contesting for 14 national and 51 provincial assembly seats respectively; elections on three national and 11 provincial seats will be held shortly. The leading political parties in the race were the PML-Q, Pakistan People’s Party (PPPP), Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), Jamiat-i-Ulema Islam (JUI), Balochistan National Party-Awami (BNP-A) and independent. 
There are four major sources of support for a candidate in national elections. They are political, ideological, ethnic, tribal and personal.  In case of Balochistan the tribal and personal go together.  Majority of the PML-Q candidates garnered their support on personal/tribal basis, a factor accountable for PML-Q which has emerged on the provincial scene as the leading political party.  More or less, all those who won the elections on provincial and national assembly seats belonged to upper echelon of society.  PML-Q has bagged 18 (one of the provincial seat winner died) seats and emerged as the leading political party. But many of the party stalwarts being very close to Musharraf government lost their constituencies.  They include Sardar Fateh Hasni, Mir Asam Kurd, Sardar Yar Mohammad Rind, Zubeida Jalal (though she declined PML-Q ticket and contested as independent candidate lest there is reduction of votes). 
The PPP emerged as the second leading party with seven provincial and four national seats. Except 1977 elections when PPP won sizeable seats under Z. A. Bhutto which later on provoked nationwide protest and ended up with eight year martial law, the first time the party bagged considerable seats in the province. Two factors are accountable for the better performance of the PPP.  One is the sympathy vote resulting out of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and nationalists’ boycott.  Benazir in the last days had visited Quetta and attended rallies and interacted with people from different walks of life.  Major credit of PPP’s success goes to party leader from Balochistan, Laskari Khan Raisani who not being a candidate left no stone unturned in organizing and campaigning for the party candidates. Also, nationalists’ vote came in favour of party candidates.  
The JUI, divided into two groups of Maulvi Asmatullah and Maulana Sherani, compared to 2002 elections did miserably and was reduced to only six provincial and three national seats.  The major factor accountable for their defeat, other than the voters’massive mandate not to vote for establishment or its affiliated parties, was the growing differences between the top party leadership over core issues. The party was a coalition partner in Jam government and enjoyed considerable financial and administrative powers.  Except few, not enough development work was done in their constituencies, a factor accountable for their poor performance.
There are 11 independent candidates and five from Balochistan National Party-Awami, nationalists who differed with the rest and contested elections.  In Balochistan due to personal basis of support because of poor political parties’ polarization, the independents have traditionally done well with the fact that the first 21-member assembly in 1970 had five independents. They have in large supported the ruling coalition for larger benefits. The province in 1993 had an independent MPA as chief minister, Zulfiqar Ali Magsi, who stands a chance of becoming the chief minister again provided PML-Q is not broken or “joins its parent party”, a bait Nawaz Sharif highlighted in his first speech.  In case it happens or some of them are baited along with the independents, Aslam Raisani of PPP will become the chief minister.  
The nationalists’ boycott provided PPP and independent candidates more vote bank, a factor for their unexpected win from some constituencies such as Ayatullah Durrani from NA-268.  In case they had participated, there would have been at least four per cent more turn out in Balochistan.  And they were going to bag, both from Baloch and Pashtoon belts, more seats in assemblies then they did in 2002.   
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