The political leadership is engaged in hectic consultations for constituting a new government. Every party is doing its best to maximise its advantage in the new governmental setup. President Musharraf loyalists and the Western supporters are working on different strategies to keep the retired general relevant in the new power architecture at the centre. In this political milieu the masses expect from the political leadership maturity and vigilance to foil all conspiracies hatched by the rejectionists, which undermine the public mandate. Otherwise, they will quickly lose ground among their voters, which could then lead to political instability.
The election results manifest that no single political party is capable to make government in the centre, Punjab, North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and Balochistan. The Pakistan People’s Party Parliamentarian (PPPP) enjoys simple majority in Sindh and thereby does not require any coalition partner in the Sindh Assembly. While in the National Assembly, despite having majority of seats the PPPP requires Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Awami National Party’s (ANP) support for making a national government. Similarly, PML-N needs PPPP’s assistance in Punjab and ANP requires PPPP’s support in NWFP. These numerical deficiencies in different assemblies necessitate them to work together. Historically, these political parties have been contesting against one another. It is also expected that in future PPPP and PML-N will be the competitors in the national politics. The past and future realities complicate coalition formation.
The co-chairperson of PPPP Asif Ali Zardari held separate meetings with PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif and ANP president Asfandyar Wali on February 21, 2008. After the meeting he expressed his satisfaction over the political convergence among the three political parties. Mr Sharif, whose party came second in the National Assembly after PPPP, but topped in the Punjab legislature, stated on numerous occasion that the two parties had agreed to respect each other’s mandate and would cooperate with each other in the centre as well as the provinces to complete their five-year term in government. Though the PPPP, PML-N and ANP have agreed to serve as partners in a coalition government, yet the ticklish details of what could be a landmark coalition of former political foes remain to be sorted out.
Importantly, the mere announcement to respect one another’s majority is inadequate. Practical action in this regard would only guarantee political stability in the country. It is imperative that likeminded parties ought to be flexible in their stances. Actually, PPPP, PML-N and ANP have different policy priorities. The PML-N’s basic demands are restoration of the Constitution; reinstatement of deposed judges; and an independent election commission. It has categorically demanded for reinstatement of deposed judges and has declared that it would not to form coalition with any party, which does not agree to restoration of the judiciary. The PPPP is not averse to the cause of the independence of superior courts and reinstatement of the deposed judges but only differs with the PML-N on the strategy. The PPPP leadership stated that the issue would be resolved through parliament. It also wants to devise a new system for judges’ appointment, i.e. National Assembly committee should appoint the judges. Nonetheless, it also seems confused over the reinstatement of the honourable judges.
The ANP articulated three demands to the parties wishing to make a coalition with it—change in strategy with regard to terrorism; renaming the NWFP; and empowerment of the province on natural resources. It was reported that the PPPP agreed in principle to the main demand of the ANP that the North West Frontier Province should be renamed as ‘Pakhtoonkhawa’. Both the parties were in unanimity that it was the prerogative of the provincial assembly to decide in this regard and the decision would be accepted. The leadership of these parties have consensus on the issue of terrorism. They indicated that the new coalition government would revise the counterterrorism strategy and adjust it according to the national interest of Pakistan. PML-N and ANP vociferously demanded a dialogue with the Taliban for establishing peace in Federal Administrative Tribal Areas.
The shift in strategy to combat the menace of terrorism and dialogue with local Taliban at this juncture seems unacceptable to the Bush Administration. Therefore, the US and UK diplomats have been convincing the PPPP leadership to work with Pervez Musharraf in the new political set-up. There are rumors that certain forces have been working to keep PML-N out of the coalition partners in the centre. If Western powers agenda is accomplished than President Musharraf would be in a comfortable position to ensure the continuity in the ongoing war against terrorism. In the beginning the PPPP leadership especially Asif Ali Zardari pursued an ambiguous approach towards President Musharraf. But since the last few days Mr Zardari and expected Prime Minister Makhdoom Amin Fahim have been giving impression that they are ready to work with the president. Though it is a good sign for the harmonious working, but the longevity of this arrangement could not be guaranteed.
The legal fraternity and civil society re-energized their movement for the restoration of deposed honourable judges of the superior courts. The lawyers’ community announced its plan to re-launch the campaign, including long march for the restoration of the ousted judges from the second week of March. It would severely undermine the credibility of the new government if it gets into confrontation with lawyers and civil society soon after coming to power. It would deepen polarization in the society and fragment the political process. Hence, the government in waiting would be facing numerous challenges—restoration of judges, superiority of constitution, uncontrolled food inflation, energy crisis above all working with President Musharraf.
