Putting up a brave face President Musharraf said, everybody should gracefully accept the election results and he himself, he said, was prepared to work with anyone who secures majority in the National Assembly. Nevertheless, the fact remains that February 2008 elections have dealt a deathblow to the president’s authority. Although his popular support had already taken a nosedive since the judicial crisis, never before he was seen as so insecure in his office as he is now. As he manoeuvred his second presidential term he thought he was out of the woods and safe in his job for at least another five years. Small wonder he had at last long opted to doff his uniform and name his successor as the Army Chief. Ironically, a French journalist visiting Pakistan to monitor elections posed the question, what if the opposition were to secure two-third majority in House and impeach the president. One would have dismissed the suggestion as a far-fetched idea a few days earlier but one has now been forced to accept that this could happen.
The opposition parties demanding Musharraf’s resignation, Nawaz Sharif in particular who says his party cannot cohabit with Musharraf, insist that Musharraf should quit because there has been an overwhelming popular mandate against him. The fact that the ‘King’s party’ has come a real cropper is an expression of popular rejection of the Musharraf-led regime, and Musharraf should come to terms with the bitter reality that it was time for him to pack up and go. Nonetheless, the president appears to be in mood to oblige the opposition, and from all accounts is determined to stay put in his office. Needless to say this has the making of a deadlock situation which could be resolved only if the opposition either settles for a compromise deal, or goes the whole hog to depose him by impeachment. Speculators have already been adding up PPP plus PML-N plus ANP seats to calculate how many more votes the combined opposition requires to reach the magical number of two-third majority. But the catch in the ‘impeachment scenario’ is that neither the PPP nor the ANP are prepared to opt for an all out confrontation with the president.
If President Musharraf can manage to avert the impeachment threat it does not mean that he will be secure in his job. The opposition could make several moves to make his presence in the Presidency extremely uncomfortable. For instance, it could make a move in the parliament to reinstate the deposed judges, or nullify whatever measures the president took in the wake of Emergency rule. This would deny the president the leverage of having a friendly Supreme Court, which could come to his aid in any crisis situation. Another possible initiative by the new government could be to repeal Article 582 (b), which would rob the president of the power to dismiss the prime minister, or dissolve the National Assembly. To cut the long story short, the new coalition in office with a two-third majority in the House could dismantle the entire fabric of previous regime and reduce President Musharraf to a non-entity a la Rafique Tarar or Chaudhry Fazal Elahi.
What are the options for President Musharraf to salvage a meaningful bargaining counter? Does he have any cards to play to checkmate in onslaught of a hostile government? The chances of a pre-emptive action to forestall moves to clip his wings cannot be entirely ruled out, but are under the circumstances a dicey business. The so-called ‘establishment’ appears to be still loyal to him, or hitherto taking dictates from the presidency. Nonetheless, whether or not army would come to his rescue and bail him out when he is pitted against a popularly elected government is highly doubtful, more so because he is no longer in direct command of the armed forces, and the new COAS apparently committed to staying aloof from politics, has no reason to stick his neck out for another unpopular action. One has also head of the famous saying ‘when the ship is sinking, the rats flee’; and therefore one is not certain how long the establishment would stick to its present patron once a new government, and an authoritative government and not an appendage of the Presidency, is firmly saddled in power.
Imposition of Martial Law could be discounted as a real possibility in the near future, but in case dooms day scenario happens Musharraf himself would be among the first casualties. Dismissal of the government and ordering new elections would be counterproductive in the wake of a pronounced anti-Musharraf wave among the populace, more so because no alibi would be good enough to justify the arbitrary action. According to political pundits Musharraf may have a sneaky chance if the coalition partners do not pull along together and he has the opportunity to intervene for playing one against the other. Musharraf’s big handicap under the circumstances is that he has no space to manoeuvre, given the fact that the ‘King’s party’ has virtually become a non-factor in the game of numbers. Nonetheless, the MQM, which enjoys Musharraf’s confidence, still has a crucial role to play in Sindh’s provincial politics, and although the PPP has majority of its own in the provincial assembly (71 out of 130 seats) Zardari is keen to secure the MQM’s cooperation for government making, to avert accentuation of rural-urban divide in Sindh.
A consolation prize for Musharraf is the continued American support for him to remain at the helm of affairs in Pakistan.  The US administration, including President Bush himself, has not only complimented Musharraf for holding ‘free and fair’ election but has also assured cooperation with him in the near future. Interestingly, a State Department official said that it would be wrong to assume that President Musharraf has no role to play in the new political set up in Pakistan. The American diplomats and quite few VIPs arriving from Washington (including Congressmen) have been hobnobbing with key political players in Islamabad. They were reportedly pursuing the common agenda of seeking reconciliation between President Musharraf and the victorious opposition leaders. As some cynical observers said the Americans have invested billions of dollars in Musharraf’s crucial assignment of ‘war against terror’, they cannot afford to let it go waste, and therefore it was necessary for them to ensure that Musharraf stays on in his office. According to media reports the Americans were also said to have suggested some formulas for coalition-making which all zeroed in on securing a modus vivendi between Musharraf and the new government.
How crucial would be the American role in salvaging Musharraf’s lame duck presidency is anybody’s guess. But one thing is quite obvious that at least the PPP, which during Benazir Bhutto’s lifetime was sponsored by the Americans as ‘Musharraf’s natural ally’, would not throw away their advice. Small wonder Asif Zardari called on the American ambassador to discuss issues of ‘mutual interest’, to the discomfort of his new found allies, as Nawaz Sharif declared at a meeting in Haripur, “we will not bow to US pressure, just as when we went ahead with conducting six nuclear tests without caring for their pressure”. Needless to say the American posture will have a crucial effect on whatever policy the PPP adopted vis-à-vis President Musharraf.
On the face of it the PPP and PML-N are being widely seen on as natural partners in a grand coalition, and the two have agreed in principle to cooperate and work together for power sharing. Nonetheless, it is quite clear that they do not see eye to eye with each other on all contentious issues. Notwithstanding the writing on the wall that they would be the rival contenders for power in the future, their priorities are divergent right now. From all accounts the PPP is not likely to toe the Nawaz Sharif hard line on either the question of rehabilitation of deposed judges, or the demand that Musharraf should immediately step down. So Musharraf gets the much-needed ‘breather’, and consequently some room to manoeuvre for a more weighty presence in the Presidency.