With no political party getting a simple majority in the national assembly to independently form a government, a coalition of like-minded parties agreeing on a minimum common agenda is most likely to emerge in the days to come. But fears loom large that any political party which agrees to work with controversial President General Pervez Musharraf, ignoring popular demands, would face the similar music the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) has faced.
Though the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has emerged as a single largest party in the national assembly, it is far behind a comfortable number of seats to bargain with the smaller partners on its own terms. The PPP is followed by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), which surprisingly came up with an upper hand in the Punjab, clean-sweeping Lahore and Rawalpindi besides winning all the two seats in the federal capital and most of the seats in other districts of the province.
The PML-Q is the third largest party but has lost the strength to be able to be an equal partner in a coalition with the PPP. The choices are difficult for the PPP, which is not likely to miss the opportunity of forming a government this time. It is expected that the PML-N will not compromise on its position vis-à-vis the restoration of judges, resignation of President Musharraf and restoration of the Constitution to its pre-October 12, 1999 condition.
While the 17th amendment has already indemnified President Musharraf’s act of October 12, 1999, and those followed till the 2002 elections, it may not be possible for any political party, without a two-thirds majority, to undo this amendment single-handedly. Therefore, the chances of all political parties, including those, which had voted to amend the Constitution, agreeing to annul the 17th amendment are not there.
However, there is a possibility that the political parties may agree not to help form a two-thirds majority to pass the 18th constitutional amendment to indemnify President Musharraf’s act of November 3, 2007. But the politics is a game of possibilities. The PPP has not taken a position on the restoration of judges and kept itself away from the lawyers and civil society’s movement. The PML-N is the only party which continues to stick to its demand even after the elections with Nawaz Sharif making it clear at a press conference in Lahore on February 19, that cooperation with any party to form a coalition is possible but only on the basis of judges’ restoration.
Nawaz Sharif has associated President Musharraf’s future as head of state with the restoration of judges who, he said, would, on their restoration, decided the question of Musharraf’s eligibility to contest the presidential election. Though the PML-N and the PPP have come closer after signing the charter of democracy, the issue of judges’ restoration will most likely be the only issue restricting them from embracing each other in the spirit of national reconciliation.
In this case, the likely partners in the coalition government will be the PPP, PML-Q, Awami National Party (ANP) and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM). This combination, with the support of the independents who have won in a big number, will also help them form coalition governments in the provinces with the PML-N sitting on the opposition benches in the national and Punjab assemblies as a strong anti-Musharraf voice to win the hearts of the people not only against President Musharraf but also the coalition partners to prepare for the next elections against the partners of President Musharraf and emerge as single largest party.
But it has yet to be seen what decision the PPP takes. The public mood is that anyone who associates himself with President Musharraf and does not bring the judiciary back to the position of November 2, 2007, will lose the support of the people and the civil society. It’s a tough choice for the PPP to decide whether to ignore the people’s demand for a ride in the government or to further strengthen its position as a major national political party.