Who will be the country’s next prime minister is an open-ended question depending on how many seats the major contenders for power can manage to win in the February 2008 election. A dark horse may come from nowhere to grab the ‘prize catch’, more so, if it is a hung parliament and forming of a coalition, calls for tough bargaining among the partners. The principal political players are on the face of it not in the run for the job. The Sharif brothers are out of the race, since neither Nawaz Shairf, nor Shahbaz Sharif is a candidate, and their party does not appear to have the potential to win enough seats that would call for one of the Sharif brothers to make lateral entry into the National Assembly and compete for the top slot. In any case the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has not officially announced its nominee for the job. The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has yet to come out with its candidate, although Amin Fahim’s name was casually mentioned at the Naudero moot as the possible parliamentary party leader. However, Asif Zardari has of late been floating his own name. ‘I could also be the Prime Minister’ he recently told an American weekly. 

The QML was the only party, which launched a campaign to sponsor its nominee for the top slot. Chaudhry Shujaat abdicating in favour of his cousin and erstwhile Punjab chief minister Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi had been lobbying for his handpicked scion to take over the reins of government, in preference to an ‘outsider’ a la Shaukat Aziz, even though some factions within the QML apparently not in agreement with his choice have been insisting that it was not a formal party decision.
 
Pervaiz Elahi who was fancying himself as the potential prime minister is left with little hopes as he himself has lost at two seats and just succeeded to find a slot in National Assembly from Attock. On the other hand under the present circumstances the president who has been the ‘god father’ of the King’s party could do little to help the former Punjab CM realize his dream. Maulana Fazlur Rehman was once tipped as a ‘compromise Prime Minister’, but that possibility could now be discounted as the Maulana does not appears to have any chance whatsoever of emerging as a ‘King maker’ in a hung parliament especially when he has lost his seat to PPP’s candidate on his ancestral constituency in Dera Ismail Khan. The elections have seen the Maulana-led MMA in a very poor position both at the provincial as well as at the National assembly level.

President Musharraf may have his own preferences for someone who would be his co-sharer of power, but under the circumstances he would not be in a position to impose his choice (or even manipulate) on a relatively more autonomous National Assembly. Understandably the president has acknowledged on a number of occasions that he would have no problem working with anyone as prime minister and would therefore be prepared to transfer power to whoever has secured majority in the House. His prerogative to appoint the prime minister is circumscribed not only by the provisions of the constitution, since the prime minister is required to obtain majority of votes on the floor of the House before his appointment, but also in terms of real politick as the battle lines would be clearly drawn in the House leaving little room for the president to intervene, unless a hopelessly divided hung assembly calls for behind the scene manoeuvres for forging a coalition. Incidentally, Asif Zardari is on record having said that the PPP could settle for a power-sharing arrangement with President Musharraf. The PPP has grabbed the largest number of seats in the February 2008 elections and therefore it would be impossible to keep it out of power. However, the choice of a junior partner (if it requires one) would depend on a number of factors and not game of numbers alone. One may therefore rule out the possibility of a PPP-Nawaz Sharif gang up, since it would amount to ‘showing red rag to the bull’ and the PPP would avoid treading a collision course with Musharraf. Asif Zardari, or Amin Fahim, whoever is the PPP nominee, would be acceptable to President Musharraf, since he has unlike Nawaz Sharif, has not vowed to undo whatever Musharraf did to secure his second ‘presidential term’ in particular the rehabilitation of the disposed Supreme Court judges. However, President Musharraf would find it rather hard to rope in his ‘own men’, or various factions of the QML, on coalition with the PPP, some of who may prefer to switch over to Nawaz Sharif rather playing second fiddle to Zardari and Co. 

There could be four possible scenarios for forming the next government. Scenario (one) -- the PPP wins absolute majority and is asked to form the government with the president’s approval and cooperation; Scenario (two) -- The PPP clearly emerges as the single largest party but is short of majority in the house, yet it can still manage to forge a winning combination with the support of independents, some smaller party such as the ANP or even the MQM with whom the PPP has shared power in the past in the province of Sindh. Scenario (three) -- the PPP makes a deal with Nawaz Sharif and accepts his party as a junior partner in the coalition. Scenario (four) -- The PPP requires the QML support or is persuaded to opt for it, for forming a durable coalition. 

Needless to say the best option for President Musharraf of QML wining majority is almost lost and he will perhaps have to settle for a compromise. Conscious of his diminishing popular support the president had accepted the advice of friends at home and abroad that he needed to broaden his political support base. This was precisely the reason why he had opened a secret channel with Benazir Bhutto, and almost concluded a power-sharing deal with the PPP. There are three reasons why the PPP was considered his natural ally. 1) Benazir was willing to play ball with the military establishment 2) PPP’s ideological ethos was closer to Musharraf’s ‘political agenda’ than any other political party in the opposition 3) Musharraf international allies, in particular the Americans, were keen to promote Benazir as the ‘democratic’ face of a military-led regime. 

Much water has flowed down the rivers since Musharraf’s deal with Benazir came a cropper, but, notwithstanding the war of words between the two camps that has been brought to the fore in the intervening period, the ground political realities have remained unchanged. President Musharraf’s first choice under the circumstances would be to renew his ‘power-sharing deal’ with the PPP. And Asif Ali Zardari would be amenable to reaching an understanding with him before the constitutional provisions come into play for transfer of the executive authority to the elected prime minister. How would the president and prime minister manage to co-exist as ‘co-sharers of power’ in the long run is a little too early to predict, but both of them would like to begin their ‘delicate relationship’ on a positive note. And the prime minister in particular, being at the receiving end would be anxious to evolve a working relationship with the president, irrespective of the fact that he has secured his job by dint of strength in the House and not on account of President’s sponsorship.
 
If something does not go wrong with projections about the polls outcome, and the PPP is returned to power, alone or in coalition with another partner, the crucial question would be who becomes the next prime minister -- Amin Fahim, or Asif Ali Zardari. To rely on intuition may be deemed as irrational, but the hunch is that Zardari may eventually find a way out to stake his claim. In all probability he would wait and see the public response when he personally leads the PPP election campaign during the last and crucial rendezvous with the electorate. In any case ‘collective leadership’ is a phenomenon alien to the PPP’s political culture, and it would be compulsion of circumstances only if Zardari would let some one else become prime minister when he himself is the PPP supremo.