Kenya, one of the most stable nations in East Africa, descended into chaos after a disputed election triggered violence that killed hundreds of people and made hundreds of thousands homeless last month. The opposition supporters came onto the streets against the government's announcement that voters had re-elected President Mwai Kibaki with 51.3 per cent of the vote, compared with 48.7 per cent for Raila Odinga, the opposition leader. Businesses in Nairobi and other areas were shut down and the government imposed ban on live television broadcasts. International election monitors also alleged voting irregularities. Election observers from the European Union said they had doubts about the legitimacy of the count.
The violence was rare for Kenya, an island of stability that has enjoyed relative calm even as war and chronic political violence wracked neighbouring countries, like Ethiopia, Sudan and Uganda. Odinga, the leader of opposition beloning to the Orange Democratic Movement, said, "The Kenyan people are right now in a state of mourning. They are mourning the loss of democracy." The violence took on ethnic overtones in some places, with reports of violence between members of the candidates’ tribes. Kibaki is a member of the largest tribe in Kenya, the Kikuyu, who comprise roughly 22 per cent of the country's population. Odinga belongs to the Luo tribe, which makes up about 13 per cent of the population.
We assume that general elections are going to be held on 18th February in Pakistan. Kenya was one of the most stable nations in East Africa. But when the elections were stolen by the incumbent president, an island of stability plunged into chaos which still continues. Pakistan is perhaps the most disturbed country in the South Asian region. Elections are being held in an atmosphere of despair, uncertainty and gloom. Leader of the largest opposition party, belonging to a particular ethnic group which already has grievances against the ruling elite, has been assassinated. Pakistan army is engaged in military operations, in two out of the four provinces. Election meetings and rallies are being hit by suicide bombers every other day. A significant part of opposition parties are not only boycotting the elections but have launched a campaign against elections too. The lawyers community will be on streets during this week till the election day. The atmosphere is highly charged and emotional. Nobody can predict what will happen if the elections are stolen in Pakistan, as well.
The post-election scenario seems too complicated, and unpredictable. People are asking the question: What will happen on 19th February? There are so many worrisome indications that all will not be well after February 18th. For example, election surveys done by the American institutions, International Republican Institute (IRI) and Terror Free Tomorrow (TFT) show that PPP and PML-N are leading in the opinion poll whereas king’s party, PML-Q, has the support of 12 to 14 per cent people interviewed. While rejecting the survey results, the caretaker government does not even recognise the institutions and dub the surveys ‘unrepresentative’. General (retired) Musharraf needs elections results in his favour. Pervaiz Elahi is behaving like a prime minister. Will the king’s party, and Musharraf, accept the outcome of the elections, if the survey results, in any case, come true and the people give their own verdict? Chief of the Army Staff General Kayani says army has no role in the elections except maintaining law and order during the elections. According to a news report, the MI (Military Intelligence) has pulled out of the political wheeling dealing after directives issued by the new chief. In 1970, General Yahya Khan did not accept the people’s verdict and the result was break up of the country. Another important question is whether the army will bail out Musharraf if he finds himself in unfavourable state of affairs?
Another scenario is will the contesting opposition parties accept the results if the Chaudhrys from Punjab, in any case, emerge as victorious as is claimed by Pervaiz Elahi? In this case, what the message will be particularly for the province of Sindh in the backdrop of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto? Will it widen the ethnic and regional divide? Will the Punjab become villain once again?
Opposition parties contesting elections have already expressed their fear that the elections will be rigged. Nawaz Sharif has alleged that Pervez Musharraf knowing that the PML-Q was fast losing support had directed heads of all the institutions and sensitive agencies to ensure the victory of the king’s party by using every means ‘fair or foul’. All Parties Democratic Movement, which is boycotting the elections, has asked the people not to vote because it was nothing more than a ‘fraud’. Asif Zardari says that Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan as a result of international agreements, but after her murder, all such agreements stand nullified. He regretted that those who had brokered the agreements were not backing PPP’s demand for a United Nations investigation into Ms Bhutto’s assassination.
Kofi Annan is engaged in resolving the dispute between the government and opposition parties in Kenya. Dispute already exists in Pakistan. Who will be the arbitrator if the dispute does intensify? Army? United States? Saudi Arabia or any one else?
