The PPP-P and the PML-N have yet to decide who will lead the House after elections. There is also a possibility that none of these two parties would be able to make the government, while the PML is increasingly losing the reason to stay in power. This happens at a time when Islamabad is in a dire need of a 'responsible' government to address myriad of problems that the interim setup is unable to resolve.
Jamat-e-Islami is not taking part in elections, and same is the case with PONAM and Tehrik-e-Insaf. The mullahs and nationalists of smaller provinces seem to agree on the point that it is useless to take part in the elections when judiciary is not independent and Pervez Musharraf, responsible for spoiling this vital institution of the state, is continuing with the presidency.
The PPP-P and the PML-N are taking part in the elections “under protest”. They will turn to agitation if the polls are rigged. While the former ruling party, PML, is confident it would succeed due to the development programs it has undertaken during its five years rule, the PPP-P and the PML-N have conditioned the fairness of electoral process with their 'reasonable' presence in the new assemblies.
At centre level, there are strong chances that the PPP-P will emerge as the strongest party, but it will not be able to make government on its own. It will definitely need coalition partners, which will definitely not be an easy job. No other political party is ready to form cabinet simply for the reason that national purse is in dire straits. The well-offs are not ready to pay more to national exchequer, while the poor and middle sections of the society are not able to carry the burden any more.
The US is ready to help, but the conditions are quite stringent. No Punjab-based political party can risk its neck in the hands of the wary mullahs. The PPP-P was let in only for the reason that Benazir Bhutto had promised to lead the war against extremism on Pakistani soil. She proved her worth by stealing the PML-N from the anti-election camp. After her assassination, country's politics seems to be on unstable course.
Hung parliaments have brought forth inherently corrupt and unstable governments. Economy has suffered a lot due to such commonalities in the parliamentary history of Pakistan. The civilian governments have also shown the tendency to be equally repressive and authoritarian as the marshal law regimes. Pakistan has touched the extreme ends helplessly. The middle path has also not proved beneficial.
There have been conscious efforts on the part of the establishment to not only have democracy but also a two-party system. The experience has proved extremely successful but it has been difficult to sustain the arrangement for long. Democracy has always degenerated into dictatorship, and Pakistan remains a centralized country at the end of the day.
How Benazir intended to steal the elections show? Had she been alive, the PPP-P would certainly have won, and she was too anxious to become premier for third time. Pervez Musharraf was willing to help her in the task.
The way she took up the issue of extremism and made it her party’s priority would undoubtedly have ensured smooth inflow of American dollars. Sticking to structural reforms would certainly have attracted the international financial institutions towards the country in terms of granting loans.
There are some 'forces' inside and outside Pakistan that do no want to see structural reforms move ahead. Industries are not ready to compete in the open market, landed aristocracy fears breach in its authority and bureaucracy does not want to lose its tight grip on the country's affairs. The monopolies in business and social realms have let loose violence to stop the way of change. That Benazir became its victim is enough to prove that she was too determined to steer the country out of troubled waters.
Socio-economic change is due in Pakistan. When and how it should occur is question. If Pakistan is getting unmanageable with every passing day, it arouses concern for all and sundry. But so many fears are attached with the concept of change that nobody dares to address the question clearly.
The progressive elements in Pakistan want to break the social structure of the society that is creating inequalities. Their main demand constitutes putting feudalism to an end and distributing lands among the peasantry evenly. The surge of middle class on the rural side will have a stake in democracy like its urban counterpart. The real hurdle towards this end is that feudals remain favorite of all the major parties of the country due to the reason that they are sure winners in elections.
Neither the Muslim Leagues nor the PPPs want to end feudalism. Both agree that reforms not revolution are the solution, but want to take the course of change cautiously lest the fundamental interests of the classes they represent are threatened.
The PML has represented the consensus of the society on the matter of socio-economic change in Pakistan. There were reforms to a certain point. All the sections of society were represented in the ruling camp. The secret of its success was the massive flow of funds due to Pakistan's frontline role in war against terror that it could not carry beyond a certain point. In its efforts to encourage the feudals and businessmen, the party has left the consumers at the receiving end. It certainly confronts the revenge of the common man on election day.
The dead end of politics is visible through the blood of Benazir Bhutto. The way of change has been effectively blocked, while nobody is ready to promise revolution in the life of common man who finds it difficult to make both ends meet amidst power break downs and soaring prices of essentials commodities. The worst is just about to happen when the government will have to take back its initiatives to provide relief to the lower and middle-income groups. Islamabad is anxiously awaiting the new government to withdraw subsidies, while it is finding it extremely difficult to carry on the development projects due to phenomenal rise in their cost.
It is now evident that elections are not a solution to the myriad of problems the country is confronting right now. All political parties have presented their lengthy and detailed manifestos but none has spelled out the strategy to bring prosperity to the people. The economic cycle will remain stuck as long as inflation remains high, energy crisis looms large and balance of payment keeps dwindling. Who will be ready to take up the reigns of power after February 18, is the real question Islamabad confronts right now. It can't really afford rigged elections.