A series of public opinion polls, surveys, independent analyses and findings by human rights bodies predict the trend in the forthcoming general elections. The prediction of voter’s trend on February 18 doesn’t bode well for the former ruling party Pakistan Muslim League (Q) and its biggest supporter the president, who in one of his recent interviews had pledged to step down voluntarily if his opponents won enough majority to oust him from power. Though many independent analysts, observers and voters do not expect the voting and post voting process to be free and fair for the groups opposing the president, yet they think that the elections might not be rigged as much as they were in 2002 because of international pressure and a dramatic turn around in the political situation.
The situation has definitely changed as Western governments, who had backed Musharraf blindly in 2002, have doubts about his ability to rule the country this time around. The Pakistani political leaders such as Nawaz Sharif, who along with late Benazir Bhutto, wasn’t allowed to return to the country, are back in the country and leading their party’s election campaign. While Bhutto was leading her election campaign, her death caused a sympathy wave to sweep the voters in the country in favour of the PPP. The pro-Musharraf group of PML (Q) is facing wrath of the people for misrule of past five years that has caused the worst ever crisis of shortage of atta, electricity, gas and water. For such reasons, the local newspapers for the past few weeks are running screaming headlines such as `PPP and PML-N leading election race,’ and `Musharraf’s popularity at all time low.’
It is the peoples’ mandate that matters in the end because history tells us that when the establishment doesn’t accept the verdict of the people and tries to impose its own will, then things take turn for the worse. One such example was 2002 elections. When those elections were blatantly rigged to suit one party and rules and the Constitution bent and disfigured to the advantage of Musharraf’s rule, the country saw the worse political instability and unprecedented violence at the end of five years of the parliament. The emergence and rise of suicide bombings, rioting and killing of political leaders, downslide in the economy and insecurity were the things the people of Pakistan got as a result of 2002 elections. If we have to turn the clock back to peace times and stability, the verdict of the people will have to be respected and implemented.
For Musharraf and his supporters, the most disturbing public opinion surveys were released this week, which forecast an outright victory for opposition parties in the elections. The International Republican Institute (IRI), based in Washington, in its survey said: ‘Musharraf’s political position has severely eroded, with his popularity and approval ratings falling to all-time lows. Since the last poll, he has made a number of moves that should have improved his position, including the ending of the state of emergency, resigning as Army Chief of Staff, assuming office as a civilian president and declaring elections.  Whatever bounce he might have received from these actions disappeared in the wake of Bhutto’s assassination, the declining security situation and the worsening economy.’
The IRI survey said as many as 75 per cent of Pakistanis, who gave their opinion in the polls, want Musharraf to resign, up eight points from the previous opinion poll in November. Only eight per cent people said Musharraf was the best person to handle the country's problems, dropping from 15 per cent in November, according to the survey. The political parties opposing Musharraf including Pakistan Peoples Party and Pakistan Muslim League (N)) have the backing of a combined 72 per cent to win the elections, according to the survey. Musharraf-backed Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-i-Azam came third with 14 per cent votes, it said. Regardless of the actual outcome, Pakistanis have already made up their minds that Musharraf backed party should not win, the survey said. As many as 79 per cent of those survey said they will think the elections were rigged if Musharraf-backed party was announced the winner, it said.
Musharraf’s job approval rating hit a new low in the IRI survey, with 15 per cent saying they approved of the job he was doing and 72 per cent saying they disapproved.  His approval rating has been cut in half since the last poll, when it was at 30 per cent. Musharraf’s overall popularity has also dropped, with only 16 per cent saying they liked him; the number saying they liked him has declined by 12 points since the last survey. When Pakistanis were asked which one leader was the best person to handle the country’s problems, only eight per cent said Musharraf, a decline of 15 points since the last poll. When asked how they would feel about the future of the country if Musharraf resigned, 62 per cent of the respondents said very good and another 17 per cent said good, for a combined 79 per cent.
The Institutes public opinion was conducted between Jan. 19 and Jan. 29 and consisted of randomly selected sample of 3,485 adult men and women from rural and urban areas in Pakistan's four provinces.
The IRI survey and opinion poll carried out by United States-based Terror Free Tomorrow, as reported in the newspapers, match in the sense that both predict a bleak future for Musharraf and his partners if elections are free and fair. Terror Free Tomorrow in its Jan. 19-29 public opinion survey said that 62 per cent of Pakistani voters combined support the opposition parties PPP and PML(N) in the polls while only 12 per cent favoured the PML(Q). The survey said 70 per cent of Pakistanis wanted Musharraf to resign immediately, while 58 per cent were of the view that agencies and parties aligned to Musharraf were behind the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.
While the government quarters and presidential camp completely rejects these surveys (because they are not in favour of Musharraf) terming them based on far from ground realities, the independent observers and western government and the media takes them seriously as such institutes have the experience of conducting opinion polls in developed and developing countries and are generally regarded as authentic.
As if the opinion polls are not enough to show the reality to the presidential camp and his supporters, human rights bodies such as New York-based Human Rights Watch, who have throughout condemned the unconstitutional steps of the Musharraf regime including imposition of emergency rule, curb on media and sacking of judiciary, has declared the Election Commission of Pakistan as biased toward the opposition groups. The Human Rights Watch in a report this week said: “The failure of Pakistan's Election Commission to act on allegations of irregularities means the electoral machinery for national elections cannot be considered impartial. The commission won't rule fairly in the election. Since the official election period commenced in November 2007, the Election Commission of Pakistan has ignored allegations of widespread irregularities, including arrests and harassment of opposition candidates and party members, and the misuse of state resources, administration and state machinery to the advantage of candidates backed by President Pervez Musharraf. The Election Commission has taken virtually no action on the widespread harassment of opposition candidates through the registration of police cases against them, police obstruction of opposition rallies, and the removal of lawful opposition banners and billboards.”
The HRW said extensive government transfers and postings of judges and other officials across the country violate legal provisions banning postings and transfers after the announcement of the election schedule, which took place on November 20, 2007. The Election Commission has failed to stop or reverse transfers of district judges; the government has put in place judges who independent observers fear could compromise investigations into electoral malpractice. The government appointed 59 civil judges in early January across the North West Frontier Province. Eleven civil judges were transferred. As well as investigating complaints, district judges are also responsible for aggregating the vote count on polling day. In addition, Human Rights Watch said it has records of at least 90 transfers of officials in Sindh province. After the announcement of the election schedule, several police officers were transferred across Sindh. Some were posted as SHOs to police stations of Kharipur district in Sindh. When the assistant election commissioner (AEC) in Jacobabad, Sindh, Liaquat Ali Afridi, refused to change polling procedures or reduce the number of polling stations from 259 to 226, he was transferred and replaced with Hisaam Soomro, a relative of the caretaker prime minister in Sindh, the HRW said in its report.
Candidates have sent in more than 1,500 complaints of irregularities from around the country, few of which have been investigated, the Human Rights Watch said and added that even visible violations, like the use of electoral banners on government offices, have been ignored. The secretary of the Election Commission of Pakistan, Kunwar Dilshad, denied responsibility, telling Human Rights Watch that the commission, which is dependent on the district-level judiciary to investigate these complaints, is helpless to investigate or act if judges send no evidence.
 “The Election Commission's lack of independence and impartiality is among the crucial structural issues impeding free and fair elections. The president currently appoints the chief election commissioner and the other commission members. The Election Commission has ignored recommendations made by international observers, including the European Union, such as changing the method of appointment of the chief election commissioner and other members to ensure their impartiality. A key recommendation from international election monitors in past elections relates to the vote count aggregation and delays in announcement between results at polling stations and the final result. Problems identified in the past have included the provision of results at polling stations on unofficial papers. Transparency would be greatly improved if certified copies of each polling station result (compiled on form XVI) and aggregated results (compiled on form XVII) were made immediately available to the media, candidates, polling agents, and observers,” the HRW report said.
Such reports and independent analyses indicate that Musharraf and the party backing him are consistently on the downward slide since Musharraf sacked former Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry on March 9. Instead of trying to improve their image in the public by taking corrective measures, the ruling regime opted for harder and dictatorial steps to crush the public uprising causing more discontent among the people. The discontent got vicious with the imposition of emergency rule and then the assassination of Bhutto followed by crisis of electricity, water and gas. And all of this is reflected in the pubic opinion polls.
Public opinion polls may not be 100 per cent accurate but they reflect the mindset of large number of people and the prevailing trend. There is always room for error in such polls but credible agencies like IRI and Gallop carry a lot of weight when they release their public opinion poll. First of all, the method of conducting public opinion poll matches all international standards and, secondly, these polls are judged by how accurate their previous polls have been.