Pervez Musharraf caused an irresistible stir among the expatriate Pakistanis when, during his eight-day tour to European countries, he time and again claimed two achievements. 1: Pakistan was winning the war against terrorism and, 2: the Pakistani economy was booming.
The questions that stirred the minds of Pakistanis living inside the country and abroad were 1: how come then the militants continue to expand their hold and enter the settled areas so much so that they are closing in on Peshawar and 2; If the economy is booming, why is there shortage of flour, electricity, water and gas?
Musharraf tried to lure the western countries into providing more aid to his government as if the loans and aid worth billions of dollars in the past eight years were not enough to turn around the fate of poor Pakistani people. Slain leader Benazir Bhutto had already pointed out in November that aid worth 10 billion dollars during Musharraf regime had gone wasted.
Just as the economic managers that followed the government that packed in 1988 and people in general questioned the utility of loans and aid that were given to Pakistan in the decade of 1980 when the country supported the United States in Afghanistan to help it defeat the former Soviet Union forces, the economic managers of the new government, whoever takes hold of power, will raise questions as to what happened to billions of dollars of past six years. The Chaudhry’s of PML(Q) have already started blaming former Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz and the present caretaker Prime Minister Muhammadmian Soomro for the atta and power crisis, absolving themselves of any responsibility that was entrusted to them as the ruling party of the past five years.
Following are the claims of Musharraf’s economic managers regarding some aspects of the economic boom:
1: The size of the economy has doubled in the past eight years and the gross domestic product has expanded at an annual average rate of 7.5 percent in the past four years.
2: The sustained economic growth has increased the middle class in Pakistan, the per capita income has doubled and consumer spending has increased.
3: Banking loans have increased on the back of consumer loans for cars and motorcycles.
4: The production of cars and motorcycles has increased and cellular phone subscribers have increased manifold. The sale of air conditioners and fans has increased indicating more Pakistanis were spending for their needs as now they had more money to spend.
5: The farmers have largely benefited from the government policies, crops production has increased and farmers are getting more money for their products, compared with the decades of 1990.
These are just a few of the arguments presented by the government to boast its economic achievements. While on the other hand, the critics believe the fruits of economic growth were restricted to very few and the Pakistani population at large, particularly, in the rural areas could not taste those benefits. The critics pose counter questions.
1: Why is there atta, electricity, gas and water shortage in the country if the fruits of economic boom have reached the common people.
2: If the increase in per capital income has raised spending power, why are people queuing up outside utility stores to buy subsidized atta.
3: The bank loans have increased but most of these loans are being used for leasing cars, adding to the debt of an individual.
4: The production of cars and motorcycles has increased as the demand rose, but people need atta as staple diet to eat and how many of the total population is buying cars and motorcycles.
5: If the crops production has increased and the wheat harvest reached a record 23.2 million tons in 2007, why is there shortage of atta and why have the prices doubled in the past few months. Given the higher prices of atta and other food items and add to that higher oil prices, the inflation has broken the back of the people.
While the wheat shortage issue has caused embarrassment to the government, the power cuts of as much as 15 to 20 hours a day outside the bigger cities doesn’t reflect an economic boom as claimed by the government. Almost entire industry in Pakistan has shut down because of power cuts, the textile industry, which accounts for about 60 percent of Pakistan’s exports, is closed and the textiles makers are finding it difficult to meet the export orders. This is despite the fact that the government increases the prices of electricity without any prior announcement. However, the announcement of increase in electricity prices are made when the news is broken in any newspaper or television channel. Similarly, the government increases gas prices almost every six months, yet the gas shortage is unprecedented.
Now coming to Musharraf’s claim that Pakistan is winning the war against terrorists and that the security forces have broken the back of Al-Qaeda and Taliban, the reality appears to be quite opposite. In the past six months, the militants seem to control the tribal areas and now they are expanding to the settled areas. A few years ago, the militants were restricted to the tribal areas of south and north Waziristan only, now they have come down to Swat, Darra Adam Khel and Bannu and are fast reaching Peshawar. The militants were able to capture forts manned by security forces in North Waziristan, they blocked the Kohat tunnel and had captured almost every big and small town in Swat valley. The bigger cities and settled areas have been rocked by a wave of suicide bombings, which is unprecedented in the history of the country. The incidents of suicide bombings in 2007 increased 10 times, as compared with the previous year and ended in the tragic assassination of Benazir Bhutto on Dec. 27.
With the security situation worsening with every passing day, it seems strange for the government to expect domestic and foreign investors to invest in Pakistan. What the investors look for before investing in any country, is the security situation and whether their money will be safe.
The next government, by default, will face an uphill task to correct the wrongs of the Musharraf government. The first priority for the future government would be to provide security to the Pakistani people so that they fell safe living in the country. Once that is done, then it will need to find out where and how the money that came in the shape of aid and loans was spent by the Shaukat Aziz government and what needs to be done to make sure that the fruits of economic boom, as claimed in government data, may reach common people. Otherwise, demand for another elections within a year or two would start coming soon.
