On January 25, 2008 a Strategic Missile Group of the Pakistan Army’s Strategic Force Command (ASFC) conducted a successful training launch of the Shaheen-1 (Hatf-IV) medium range ballistic missile. The Hatf-IV missile with a range of 700 kilometres is an operationalised weapon system, capable to carry nuclear and conventional warheads with great accuracy and destroy many important targets in India.
Though the missile was tested as a part of exercise conducted by the ASFC, but its ‘firing timing’ had both political and strategic significance. Presently, the Indians have been celebrating their accomplishments in anti-missile systems indigenous research and development; and also their American and Israeli purchases and transfer of technology in the missile sphere. In this context, it is an important force multiplier. Within Pakistan, it underscored government’s commitment to strengthening its striking missile capability against its adversary, despite the Western propaganda against its strategic assets. General Pervaiz Kayani, Chief of Army Staff after witnessing the successful firing stated that the nation had developed a strong nuclear deterrence capability and expected that the officers and men entrusted with the task of deterring aggression would continue to train hard and maintain professional excellence.
Since the last two decades the offensive missiles -- ballistic-cruise -- have become very attractive weapon systems for the defense planners in Pakistan. The importance of these systems has grown in large part because of their uninterrupted striking capability and indigenous production. Though Indian scientists claimed that they would develop and make operational their anti-missile systems within three years, but factual indicators invalidate their assessments. The scientific data and geographical approximaty of India and Pakistan indicate that it would be too difficult for the Indian missile shield to interrupt Hatf-IV strike.
Another reason for the missiles prominence in Pakistan’s making of strategy is its Air force limitations. The expansion of the Pakistan Air Force has been constrained by sanctions from Washington during the 1990s, which had prevented Islamabad from obtaining United States military equipments including advanced warplanes. The United States imposed these sanctions under the Pressler Amendment, barring further military assistance and sales to Pakistan. Consequently, these sanctions negatively influenced Pakistani offensive striking capabilities.
The US-Pakistan relations, mired in the 1990s, turned a new leaf after the events of September 2001, when Pakistan’s role became indispensable in the War on Terrorism, especially in the Operation Enduring Freedom (operation against Taliban-led Afghanistan). It propelled Pakistan into the limelight of Washington’s national security concerns. Appreciating Pakistan’s key role as a frontline state in the war on terrorism President Bush lifted all nuclear proliferation-related sanctions on Pakistan (and India) on September 22, 2001. Following the Bush Administration approved a sizeable (36 F-16 C/D) sale of United States combat aircraft to Islamabad in September 2006.
Describing Pakistan as a “vital ally,” the Pentagon stated the arms would be used in fighting terrorists, such as al-Qaeda, and “would not significantly reduce India’s quantitative or qualitative military advantage” in the region. The actual impact of these aircraft on Pakistan’s quest for a credible nuclear deterrent is unclear. These plans are not nuclear capable. No doubt, these aircraft could be modified for the delivery of nuclear weapons. Even though the F-16 sale was cleared but its smooth transaction would not be guaranteed. In 2007 the United States Congress had expressed its concern over Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programmes and had passed legislation (HR-Act 2007) that tied military assistance to an increase in Pakistan’s efforts to combat terrorism and nuclear and missile proliferation.
Islamabad has been sub-assembling advanced JF-17 fighter aircraft with the assistance of China to minimise its vulnerabilities in the wake of American sanctions in the future. Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) has all the plans to make JF-17 Thunder the world’s first weapon system that is able to carry all types of conventional and non-conventional weapons. On January 22, 2008 Chief of Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal Tanvir Mahmood Ahmed claimed, “We will prove that Joint Fighter is the best available aircraft in the market.” Many analysts expressed their reservations on these claims. According to reports, the fighters are powered with Russian-made Klimov RD-93 engines. In January 2007, the Russian government announced, under pressure from India, that it would not allow China to deliver JF-17 fighter aircraft powered with Klimov RD-93 engines to Pakistan. Nonetheless, Pakistan has been assembling these fighter aircrafts, which proves that the engine issue was resolved.
The American presidential candidates and intelligence agencies have been making suspicious statements on the safety and security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and on its role in the war on terrorism. The political discourse in the Americans elections debate resurfaces the fact that sooner Pakistan-US relations would be on down slide and Indo-US strategic partnership would improve. The shift in relations would have negative impact on the Pakistani armed forces, especially Pakistan Air force. Importantly, Pakistan’s strategic outlook has been influenced by geo-military disequilibrium that is highly favourable to India. The massive build-up of India’s conventional and non-conventional military capabilities -- advanced offensive aircraft, ballistic and cruise missiles, missile defense systems, nuclear submarines, an aircraft carrier, etc - and Pakistan’s own less-developed indigenous armament-manufacturing capabilities enhance its dependence on the arms supplier nations particularly United States. These developments have frustrating impact on the common man in the country. Hypothetically speaking, many strategic ignorant instantly conclude that Pakistan’s defense had been immensely deteriorated due to the shift in Washington-Islamabad relationship. The firing of Hatf-IV, obviously, exposed the inaccuracy of such claims and has a soothing impact on the public. Precisely, it reassures that Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent capabilities would remain intact in the future.
To conclude, the indigenous ballistic missiles are essential for maintaining a credible deterrent against India. Therefore, it is imperative to improve qualitatively and quantitatively Pakistan’s missile potential.
