Whether Bahawalpur should be part of Punjab or survive as an independent federal unit was the question at the time when One Unit was dismantled in 1970. The question divided people at that time while this division remains intact even today. The 2008 elections, if held, will turn up an opportunity for both sides of the divide, settlers and locals, to assert their positions. Jats and Abbasids are right in the middle of the long-festering conflict in Bahawalpur.
The princely state of Bahawalpur was merged into One Unit. It was the first encounter with Lahore after about a century when Khalsa forces had crossed down the Sutlej River but forced back by the British due to Treaty of Amartasar that bounded them (Sikhs) not to cross the perennial stream.
There was a protest by the rulers as well as the public (by then a 'democratic' government had become into power as the result of 1954 elections) over the loss of the status but all went in vain. The hope of the revival of the provincial status remained lingering due to a provision of the plan that the units would be restored lest the plan should be dismantled. But nothing like that happened. Bahawalpur was reduced to the status of just a division of Punjab. The fate of the region was decided to the very much disappointment of the local population.
The settlers had stood by Punjab and with the passage of time their bonds with Lahore have strengthened. Five years long rule of Chaudhrys of Gujrat have enhanced their position very much. Their competitors in jobs and allocation of development funds have beaten up locals. They have already lost contest on the allocation of lands in Cholistan. The provision of canal water is also a serious matter. With every acre becoming under cultivation in Cholistan means a loss of the water share of the old settled areas.  
The movement for Bahawalpur province was suppressed. The memory of military action against the protestors is still alive. A local daily carried out a special number. Akbar Malik has been awarded doctoral degree by History department on the subject.   The merger divided the new and old settlers into two groups -- the settlers supported the move while locals opposed it. Dr Mussawar Bokhari believes that Saraiki nationalism draws strength from the anti-Punjab movement in Bahawalpur.  
The leading figures of the movement for the restoration of Bahawalpur province have practically abandoned the idea to get rid of Lahore's domination. Seth Ubaidur Rahaman who had played a leading role in this movement is only able to live with his memories. So is the case with Malik Qamar, the high court lawyer. Dr Nasrullah Khan Nasir, who had once actively opposed the merger of Bahawalpur into Punjab, has turned educationist.  
When the comrades of the movement for the restoration of Bahawalpur province are toying with bigger ideas, the people from lower-middle class fill the ranks of the organisation. The ancient and old communities of the region, particularly Hindus, face not compelling reasons to have a benign face of the state through getting the Bahawalpur province restored. It means more waters for them and their livestock. It means more social space and chances to retain their traditional ways of life.  
Though the movement for the restoration of Bahawalpur is weak but the question is still alive. The Saraiki nationalists have strong reason to reject the idea. The population balance among the Saraikis and Punjabi settlers is almost equal. The consistent Martial laws have strengthened the hands of the settlers in terms of jobs and land and limited water resources. So, having a province will definitely result into the domination of the Punjabi settlers.  
“It is out of question now. We stand for a bigger province on the basis of our claim of being Saraiki, like other nations i.e. Punjabis, Sindhi, Balochs and Pakhtuns," Ismail Dahir, member of Saraiki National Party (SNP) and practicing lawyer of Rahim Yar Khan says. To him a province comprising of at least three divisions of Punjab i.e. Multan, DG Khan and Bahawalpur and DI Khan of NWFP, can help secure Saraikis' identity and culture in the generations to come.
Shahzad Irfan's father had been among the founders of Pakistan Saraiki Party under the leadership of Barrister Taj Muhammad Langah after he developed differences with Zulfikar Ali Bhutto vis-à-vis questions related with Saraiki identity. He is not so active on the political front.  Archeology is his passion now. He insists on a distinct if not different identity of Bahawalpur. "Regionalism not nationalism will provide the way out," he says. 
"The Supreme Court of Pakistan can settle this question," Shahzad Irfan says insisting that the merging of Bahawalpur into Punjab is illegal. He does not fail to identify the hand of the feudals of Punjab and Sindh in the degeneration of a princely state into just a division of Punjab province.
"We lost Sutlej, our lifeline, due to the Indus Basin Treaty but no political party is ready to take up our case as the region gets its water table down to alarming levels," he worries. "Nobody bothers when Punjab sacrifices Bahawalpur's share of canal water to the benefit of the Sindhi farmers in the name of provincial harmony," he adds.
Once People’s Party raised hopes among Saraiki nationalists by addressing their linguistic concern. The Islamia University of Bahawalpur got a Saraiki department during 1990s as a result. Bahaudin Zikria University has also got a research centre. Saraiki is being taught at college level. But the whole process has consumed a decade and a PTV station in Multan still remains a dream.
The twists and turns of history have proved that no political party in Pakistan can come up to the aspirations of the Saraiki people given the fascination of the elite with big provinces. Many initiatives of the Centre vis-à-vis economic development and national cohesion are in limbo due to entrenched positions the four dominant ethnic groups have taken vis-à-vis each other. And Bahawalpur’s case is even more complex. It can't wait now. Identity is not a problem -- thanks to Dr Rafiq Mughul. The drying up of Sutlej River is the most pressing problem and growing rate of unemployment and failing agriculture the others.  
The situation is about to take an ugly turn as the traditional elite has become sensitive to the security of its domain that has come under threat now. The conflict between Chaudhrys of Gujrat and Makhdoom of Rahmiyar Khan is an example whereby the later became irritated at the former's getting allotted land in Cholistan and evicting murids of Makhdooms who had been tilling the land since centuries. The competition on Rescue 1122 posts in Bahawalpur is the recent incident that has caused resentment among locals due to heavy-handed tactics of Tahir Bashir Cheema.  
The way out is probably there. The new and old settlers will have to join hands. The land grabbing in the area will have to be stopped to save water for the old population. Livestock and tourism will yield more than bringing the desert under cultivation. The conservation of the Hakra belt is as essential as the optimal utilisation of the water resources.  
There needs to be a consensus on the issue of Sutlej River, which has been unjustifiably taken over by India through Indus Basin Treaty. It is essential to preserve the eco-system on which the future of the region heavily depends. The water table is slipping down very fast. If Sutlej does not resume its strength, exodus of population from the agri-belt will be the only result. Such a development has already taken place due to drying up of once a mighty river, Hakra.