Once Benazir seemed certain that she would be the country's premier for third time. She had managed to return after eight years of self-exile. Contrary to the advice of some sympathizers and party men, she had held meeting with Musharraf who was pressed hard by growing unrest among the lawyers vis-à-vis his decision to dislodge Iftikhar Chaudhry, the chief justice. Any deal with Musharraf, in their best judgment, could tarnish the image of the party she was projecting as an anti-establishment entity.
Benazir would go her own way, however. She would hold talks with Musharraf and land in Karachi after the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) 2007 had ended corruption cases against her. Her comeback would not be a peaceful affair, however. Suicide bombers attacked her rally. She reminded General Musharraf of the letter she had written to him before she left Dubai. She had mentioned in this letter the names of the politicians, part of the government, who could not tolerate her walk freely on country's soil.
As the time passed, she became convinced that she would be assassinated. She said all this publicly. The government admitted that she was a target of militants. She would move in bulletproof vehicles, and police vans would accompany her as she toured the country to campaign for her party. On December 27, she would be attacked and killed. The government would term her death as a great loss to the country; the national flag would fly at half-mast for three days.
Both the polity and the people have been in serious trouble since the day Benazir was assassinated. Her body was received in Sindh with anger and anguish. While some proceeded to Garhi Khuda Bakhsh to participate in the funeral ceremony, others turned to loot, arson and vandalism. Sindh was cut off from the rest of the country. PIA suspended flights and pilgrims were stranded in Saudi Arabia for a couple of days.
Benazir's successor is her spouse, but he is not interested in premiership. He would like to play a role in his party similar to what Sonia Gandhi is playing in Congress. Zardari will remain active in politics until his eldest son Bilawal, the chairman of the party, completes his education. People's Party which he leads in the capacity of the co-chairperson, is all interested in winning polls but has not yet made clear who will lead the government in case it sweeps elections.
Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, the former chief minister of Punjab, is the self-declared candidate for the premiership in case the PML-Q wins in thumping majority. His party has suffered the most due to the assassination of Benazir Bhutto who had emerged as a credible challenger of the dynasty the Chaudhrys of Gujrat have constructed since 2002. The wave of sympathy across the country for Bhuttos has left their camp deserted. Whatever is left is clearly the anti-Bhutto element. So Mr. Elahi has come out in the open in challenging PPP-P.
Pervaiz Elahi is irritated over Zardari's terming of his party as Qatil (Murderer) League. Now his manifesto is: "If you want Quaid-i-Azam's Pakistan, not that of Zardari’s, vote for PML-Q." He has also questioned the co-chairmanship of Benazir's spouse. He is wasting a lot of the content of his public speeches on mud slinging and criticism on the leadership of the PPP-P. He seems to be taking different position than his mentor, Pervez Musharraf, who has left no stone unturned while proving his innocence in the matter of Benazir's assassination. Neither now nor after elections can Pervaiz Elahi hope to be in good terms with Pakistan People’s Party, no matter what position his party secures in polls.
Pervaiz Elahi has certainly done a good job in Punjab. He presided over the provincial matters when the economy was sound and political stability was order of the day. He made a lot of efforts in raising the standards of education and massive allocation of funds laid enough emphasizes on female literacy. He paid due attention to the less developed regions of the province. Before Benazir's murder, Pervez Elahi could hope sweeping Punjab but things have changed a lot now. Not only is the People’s Party in, but also the PML-N. And he is targeting the both during his election campaign.
Sharifs are not in the race for premiership. They can't hope better results than that of previous elections. They have to rely on the sentimental and passionate workers of the parties like People’s Party to counter Chaudhrys. They have first to revive support in their home province before aspiring for Islamabad. When the propagandists of the PML-Q are advising the party leadership to the advantage of the PML-N and PPP-P, Nawaz Sharif may easily stick to his guns beyond elections.
The religious and regional parties are inherently not capable of capturing the top slot of the government, whatever the circumstances. MQM, ANP and JUI have existed independently. Leadership of these parties may chose on its will as to whom to join.
Actually there is nothing left in premiership if the economic indicators are faltering with every incident of violence in the country. The parties have committed too much in their manifestos but there is no one to deliver any good to the people at the end of the day due to weakening economy. The structure of the society and the ability of various interest groups in Pakistan to manipulate policies to their advantage are such dominant factors that only a sovereign parliament can check their domineering role in society.
But PPP-P will have to nominate prime minister in case it wins elections. Most probably Amin Fahim will be its choice. His name was floated after 2002 elections as well. This humble and humane figure will be acceptable to all. But if PML-N's seats increase and its support to the PPP-P government becomes crucial, a non-feudal figure will be picked up from Punjab. There is strong chance that Aitzaz Ahsan will lead the next cabinet. If it happens, Sindh will be saved from another tragedy - it has had many due to its over-ambitious leadership.
