The war on terror began with the bombing of Taliban strategic positions on Oct 7, 2001. Over six years on, Taliban and their ideological partners - al-Qaeda operatives – continue to challenge the US-led 43,000 NATO troops in Afghanistan. On this side of the Durand Line too, we are told, over 80,000 Pakistani troops are battling hard terrain, rough weather as well as Taliban militants in coordination with the coalition forces across the border. The Pakistani vigil also includes surgical strikes and search operations in the seven tribal agencies of FATA, spread over about 27,000 square kms. Of great concern are North and South Waziristan, Kurram, Khyber and Mohmand agencies. And in the eye of the storm is the wily Waziristan region, where Taliban militants feel themselves sandwiched between the Pakistani security forces and the US-led Afghan and NATO troops. They are feeling pressure and head also because authorities have tried to engage some of the fighters, thereby creating the impression that they have embraced the government to the detriment of the Taliban movement. The symbol of this fury is nobody else than Baitullah Mehsud. Mehsud, 34, whom not only the Afghan and US officials accuse of organizing suicide attacks in Afghanistan; Pakistani officials have also blamed the Taliban commander for the December 27 assassination of Benazir Bhutto. This, however, appears to be one of the many missions Mehsud's people or like-minded militants members carried out during 2007, which turned out to be the bloodiest year in the country's history; the country suffered a ten-fold increase in suicide bombings in 2007 as compared with 2006, an interior ministry document (released Jan 12) says.
As many as 56 suicide attacks left 419 law enforcement personnel (LEP) dead – up from 46 LEPs and 91 civilians lost in six attacks during 2006. About 20 of the attacks occurred between October 18, when Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan, and December 27, when terrorists finally took her life along with 24 others in Rawalpindi. December topped with 10 suicide attacks in all.
Attacks on LEPs and organs of the security establishment increased by 100 percent with 234 personnel losing lives in about 465 attacks across the country, including some on installations and vehicles of intelligence agencies and one on a training and monitoring facility for special counter-terrorism Pakistani and US troops near Ghazi Barotha. Military training and recruitment camps and checkposts were also among prominent targets. Some 262 civilians were also killed in these attacks compared to 224 such strikes against LEPs in 2006, which had resulted in 82 LEP and 159 civilian deaths. Most of the attacks on LEPs were carried out in FATA and the settled districts adjacent to the tribal agencies.
All attacks and bomb blasts taken together, as many as 2,116 people, including 558 LEPs were killed and 3,962 injured in 1,825 attacks in year 2007, up from 1,482 attacks in 2006 which killed 967 people, including 263 LEPs. Incidents of missile/rocket firing, improvised explosive device (IED) explosions and mine explosions went down to 417, far less than 528 such acts of terrorism in 2006.
These statistics don't augur well for Pakistan's internal security. The attack ahead of lawyers' protest on January 10 in Lahore indicate a change of strategy also; although most of the victims of this attack belonged to the police, yet it left little doubt that the forces intent on creating state of insecurity are now turning their guns and suicide bombers even to civilians.
Officials responsible for keeping an eye on militants in FATA say that increased Pakistan military presence and greater coordination with the US-led coalition troops across the border have forced the militants to turn to settled Pakistani areas. The cross-border movement for these militants seems to be mounting pressure on them to look for targets inside Pakistan.
Currently about 27,000 Americans are based in Afghanistan, 14,000 as part of ISAF and 13,000 operating under Operation Enduring Freedom. US Defence Secretary Robert M. Gates, according to a January 11 report, wants another 3,000 marines for Afghanistan, which he believes could have a significant impact on operations in the country. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Navy Adm. Michael G. Mullen said January 11 that the proposal was on the table and that the secretary has discussed it with military leaders, including the commander of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force, Army Gen Dan K. McNeill.
The issue of additional forces to Afghanistan speaks to challenges NATO and the United States have faced there, Mullen said. "Though there has been a "tremendous amount of success" in the country, it has been uneven,” Mullen was quoted as saying.
The chairman also reiterated that "al-Qaeda and the Taliban are using the federally administered tribal areas in that country to plan, train and finance operations inside Afghanistan and worldwide."
Pakistani intelligence agrees that reinforcement of US and international troops in Afghanistan could help in curbing militants in Afghanistan. But that means a proportionate increase in their activities on the Pakistani soil, said an official, pointing to the number of attacks and deaths during 2007. And this confronts Pakistan with a massive challenge.
Pakistan's challenge
Insecurity that is rooted in the tribal areas and is now fanning out to urban centres poses a daunting challenge both to Pakistan and the United States. Almost all suicide attacks bear the hallmark of al-Qaeda but carry no clue as to whether it is the work of this organization or of the Pakistani Taliban. Or is this form of terrorism a fusion of both al-Qaeda and Taliban?
A January 7, 2008 stratfor.com analysis also addresses the issue of al-Qaeda proliferation across Pakistan and says the amorphous organization has very skillfully turned this country into its regional headquarters.
"Unlike in Iraq and most other places, al-Qaeda can actually claim a significant degree of success in Pakistan. However, the last time al-Qaeda issued a statement on Pakistan was September 20, 2007, when bin Laden vowed to retaliate against Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf for the killing of the cleric who led the uprising at Islamabad's Red Mosque (in July 2007)."
Since then, the jihadists in Pakistan have successfully staged multiple suicide attacks against army and air force installations and personnel, as well as those of the Inter-Services Intelligence directorate. More recently, the insecurity and instability in Pakistan increased sharply because of the assassination of top opposition leader Benazir Bhutto. The deterioration of political stability in Pakistan is obviously forcing the United States to re-evaluate its options — the New York Times reported on Sunday (Jan 6) that the National Security Council is considering expanding the authority of the CIA and the Pentagon to conduct more aggressive covert operations in Pakistan's northwestern regions. Chaos, weakening of government control, and the entry of the US military into the fray — these are the conditions in which al-Qaeda thrives."
Stratfor analysis also converges with what Pentagon in particular believes. "Al Qaeda prime is, after all, headquartered in Pakistan. With Washington's focus shifting from the chaos in Iraq to the chaos in Pakistan, it might be that the spotlight is shining uncomfortably close to the apex leadership. From al-Qaeda's point of view, the Afghanistan-Pakistan theatre is perhaps the only area of opportunity left for the jihadists to exploit, and the area where the final battle of the US-jihadist war will be fought.
The writing on the wall is clear; the US is growing impatient for actions that the administration believes will help it showcase performance in the war against terrorism. And the peg for these actions obviously is the belief that behind the cover of the Taliban, al-Qaeda is quietly carrying its anti-US and anti-West war forward. The weeks ahead will probably determine the extent of Pak-American anti-terror cooperation. Publicly, Gen ® Pervez Musharraf and Pentagon look at odds over the strategy. Covertly, they couldn't agree more that the strikes on and surveillance of Taliban/al-Qaeda hideouts must pick up. Therein lies the justification for the "political expedience" that Washington has displayed on a number of controversial issues (such as emergency and retirement of five dozen judges).
