As was being anticipated, the elections have been put off till the end of Muharram, and the new date has willy-nilly been accepted by the key political players. The PPP had earlier warned against postponement of polls, threatening to launch, what it called, a ‘civil disobedience’ movement if the Election Commission failed to stick to the original schedule. The PML-N had followed the PPP line, as it has doing more often than not since it parted company with APDM. Mercifully the ‘tough talk’ was mere rhetoric, as the two parties, one after the other, fell in line with the postponement decision, saying that despite their reservation they would fight the election. Hopefully this would bring an end to the election schedule controversy, as the way has been cleared for a full-blooded participation in the polls by all the parties, which had earlier on not opted for a boycott. However, the ‘boycotters’ are still on the scene, adamantly refusing to see the writing on the wall that they were fighting a losing battle. Needless to say, President Musharraf realising the gravity of law and order’s deterioration in the three days after Benazir’s killing thought it necessary to reiterate that no one would be allowed to disrupt peace during the election process, as he vowed to deploy the army in aid of the civil administration.
On the face of it, the PPP smelled a rat in polls postponement, since it feared foul play by the erstwhile Kings party. The ‘Chaudhry of Gujrat’, it was said, would make a desperate bid to resurrect the QML ‘dead horse’, which has virtually been parleyed in the wake of massive outpouring of sympathy for the slain Benazir. Whether or not the establishment is still capable of bailing out the QML by invoking the so called ‘rigging plan’, as alleged by PPP Senator Latif Khosa, there is some merit in the apprehension that the PPP adversaries would use their ‘new lease of life’ to employ all the tricks of the trade, fair or foul; to counter the ‘sympathy factor’. Critics say, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi’s press conference in which he charged that the ‘riots in Sindh were targeted against Punjabi settlers and Urdu speaking people, and were stage managed by Asif Zardari’, signalled the beginning of ‘whispering campaign’ that the PPP was a hostage to Sindhi nationalists opposed to the unity of Pakistan. Whether, or not this brand of anti-PPP propaganda would have any effect on the electorate in Punjab, the PPP, in particular Asif Zardari, would have ample opportunity till Feb 10 to reaffirm its commitment to the federation during the resumed election campaign in Punjab.
By popular reckoning the PPP is poised to ride the crest of a massive ‘sympathy wave’ and therefore set to perform much better in the polls than expected earlier. Some believe that it may even secure a majority. However a gallop pollster has predicted that a five to six per cent increase in the PPP’s popular vote may not translate into its tally of seats and in Punjab Nawaz Sharif, rather than the PPP, may be the beneficiary of loss of support fort the QML. In any case the erstwhile ruling party appears to be the big loser in the post-Benazir power scenario, and may no longer have the leverage to call the shots in coalition making. On the contrary some observers do not rule out the possibility of PPP-PML-N ganging up to upset the regimes applecart for future scheme of things, while others insist that the PPP under Zardari leadership, would still prefer to do business with President Musharraf, rather than chartering a course of total confrontation with the establishment.
Although a firm date has been given for a deferred elections, and President Musharraf has given a solemn assurance that the election process would be ‘free, fair and transparent’, political uncertainty still looms large over the horizon. Needless to say that the regime in Islamabad has a low credibility for fair play but the situation has been further aggravated on account of a flurry of allegation swapping. Charges and counter charges imputing sinister designs have raised the degree of mutual distrust to a level where no move, howsoever good intentioned, is accepted by the warring factions as legitimate. A measure of understanding between the government and the opposition is urgently called for to follow some rules of the game, if we wish to lend a modicum of credibility to the electoral exercise.