With political disarray visible in the form of disintegration of various political alliances in the country it is quite certain that the coming elections will only add to the uncertainty in the country and lead to further instability.
None of the political parties will be able to gain any decisive success and a hung parliament will be formed. As a result of the coming elections formation of government will be practically at the mercy of the establishment instead of the political forces. This will once again see policies concerning public welfare being formulated by people who will be least bothered about them.
This is the reason why political circles can be seen raising hue and cry over the credibility of the present election process.
The same old American interests, establishment set priorities and role of the President House will continue to dominate the future political scenario as well.
Though some of the major political parties have jumped into the election arena in spite of reservations that they hold about the fairness of the election process, traditional air of election process is not visible.
The presidential camp and the establishment seem quite satisfied with the situation that is shaping up in their favour. They do not want to see any single force grabbing decisive majority in the elections that it could pose a threat to them.
They are not bothered about who would be the next prime minister; what they want is two-third majority for those who are pro-Musharraf and believe in pro-US policies. President Musharraf needs support from two-third of the parliament to secure his future and find a legal basis.
On the one hand various political parties are trying their best to secure maximum number of seats for themselves while on the other there is a group that is trying its best to cement and secure the legal position of President Musharraf. This group is paving the way for such political forces that could in future validate Musharraf’s term in office and carry forward the presently pursued policies. It has also been believed that presence of President Musharraf is mandatory for continuation of US policies in Pakistan.
It is very much in the air that Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) Chairperson Benazir Bhutto and some other important political leaders have extended their commitment to the US regarding their future political role and President Musharraf’s role in civilian capacity.
So it is quite clear that whosoever comes into power as a result of the coming general elections President Musharraf will continue as civilian head of the state. The status quo will persist in the country.
Overall no big change can be expected from the general elections.
This is the reason why some political parties especially Tehrik-i-Insaf (PTI), Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) and Pakhtoonkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) and some nationalist parties have launched their protests for independence of judiciary the prevalent system.
It seems that in the near future due to their agenda they will easily be able to mobilize the problem-stricken masses. So electioneering as well as protest demonstrations will be the hallmark of the coming general polls.
At the other level the flour crisis in the country has worsened. There is serious shortage of flour at the Utility Stores as well as the general markets. There is a marked increase in the price of flour. The price of 20kg flour bag has increased to Rs400. Whereas in Lahore it is available at Rs350 a sack. Even at this price flour is not easily available. It is pertinent to mention that the official price of 20kg flour bag is Rs295.
At the political scene after the PML-N chief also boarded the polls bandwagon, Imran Khan, Qazi Hussain Ahmed and Mahmood Khan Achakzai seem to be left alone in the arena.
After the announcement by Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) to take part in the general elections, ‘Lotacracy’ has reached its peak in the province. Dozens of leaders belonging to Pakistan Muslim League-Q have shifted their loyalties to PML-N or PPP. These include PML-Q Central Vice President Abdul Majeed Malik, former provincial minister Naeemullah Khan Shahani, PML-Q leader and former member National Assembly Sardar Mansur Taman, former provincial minister Col (retired) Shuja, deputy speaker Punjab Assembly Sardar Shaukat Hussain Mazari, former provincial minister Rana Nazir, former member National Assembly Akhtar Khan Kanjo, former MPA Chaudhry Asghar, former member provincial assembly Amanullah, Chief Whip in the National Assembly Nasrullah Khan Dareshak, former provincial minister Syed Qayem Ali Shamsi, former member National Assembly Dr Firdaus Ashiq Awan and dozens of others.
The coming general elections have resulted in the disintegration of Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) and the All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM). The idea of boycotting the general elections was strongly supported by Mahmood Khan Achakzai, Imran Khan, Qazi Hussain Ahmed, Gen (retired) Hamid Gul, Manzoor Gillani, Hameed-ud-Din Al-Mashriqi, Dr Abdul Hayee Baloch and others. The clash of approaches led to the split of the APDM as well as the religio-political alliance, MMA.
There is a strong possibility that the boycotters will gain in strength especially after the elections. This camp will get strong support from the judicial camp. Though the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz has entered the ring late but under the charismatic leadership of Nawaz Sharif it has the potential to perform well.
A strong contest between PPP and PML-N is expected. At present in the province the PML-Q dominates. Seventy per cent of its contestants have previously been assembly members. If luck favours Nawaz his party has all the potential to romp home. PPP in Punjab can only benefit in case votes split among the two major factions of the Pakistan Muslim League.
The Pakistan Muslim League-Q has yet to launch a full-fledged campaign in the province. Many believe that PML-Q’s rallies will be staged with the support of the official administration and use of government resources.
It is worth noting that if PML-N Chief Mian Nawaz Sharif would have opened party doors to the PML-Q dissidents Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi could never have been able to save PML-Q from disintegration.