Like a seasoned opportunist Fazlur Rehman is playing his cards well. He has virtually ripped apart the religious alliance – Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal – and has finally paved his way to the corridors of power.
Those, privy to these developments, say the military establishment is ready to offer him speaker-ship of the National Assembly. But he has to play his card, wisely.
The combined strength of the religious alliance in the last National Assembly was close to 60, of which more than 30 seats belonged to those who originally hailed from the JUI-F. Now with Jamat-e-Islami boycotting the elections, the JUI-F appears to be the main attracter of the MMA's vote-bank in the country.
In recent meetings with Rehman, the US Ambassador to Pakistan was said to have expressed her country's concerns over the ongoing war against terror in the Pakistani territory. The Maulana was informed that the United States had no problem if he manages to form his government in the NWFP along with the liberals like Awami National Party.
But Maulana is apparently not contented with what he is being offered. Instead, he wants more. According to the sources he demanded to his 'well-wishers' the same share what Nawaz Sharif got in the Islamic Jamhoori Itehad (IJI). He wants nobody should destabilise his future provincial government.
But, simultaneously, he does not like to sit on the opposition benches in the National Assembly anymore. The office of National Assembly speaker will certainly have an attraction for him. Similarly, he has made assurance to the US Ambassador about his cooperation if Benazir Bhutto tries to form her government. In deed, Maulana finds himself in a win-win situation.
Imagine a scenario where Pervez Kiyani heads the armed forces, Pervez Musharraf heads the country, Pervez Elahi heads the government. And to give legitimacy to the Pervez-Troika there are Benazir Bhutto and PML-Nawaz sitting on the opposition benches. And they have a friendly Mullah with them who, for the appeasement if the United States, will urge upon the Taliban fighters to shun violence and come to the negotiation table.
This is one of the plans, prepared behind the concrete walls of the power corridors. The intelligence agencies rate him one of the 'accessible' and 'vulnerable' politicians of his stature. His past speaks about his commitment to rendering his direct and indirect support to the military establishment.
Hailing from the Abdulkhel Banyala area in the Dera Ismail Khan, Rehman served as the opposition leader in the last National Assembly. Though Makhdoom Amir Fahim had got more MNAs with him, but Speaker Chaudhry Amir Hussain ignored that reality.
Rehman inherited from his father mass public support from their native area of Dera Ismail Khan. Of the four general elections, he contested since 1988, he won two with convincing margins. He lost the two elections in 1990 and 1997. Fazlur Rehman politics, like his father's, has been at odds with the Muslim League.
Rehman built his public image by supporting Benazir Bhutto during her second term as the prime minister. His cooperation with the PPP to some extent diminished his party's image of an anti-secular religio-political entity. His alleged involvement in some financial scandals, specially the charges levelled against him of supplying permits for exporting diesel from Pakistan to Afghanistan also threw a blot on the party's reputation. He is regarded by some as an opportunist posing as an Islamic leader – the charge he vehemently denies.
Often labelled as Mullah-Military Alliance, the MMA remained under harsh criticism for its reported affiliation with the military establishment. Contradictory claims were made from various quarters about the unprecedented rise of the religious forces in the last general elections.
The general perception about the Mullah-Military nexus was manifested after the MMA agreed to support the 17 th constitutional amendment. With the MMA support the coalition government of the PML-Q passed the 17th amendment with two-third parliamentary majority. It validated all the actions of General Musharraf, he took since overthrowing Nawaz Sharif's government in October 12, 1999. In return, the establishment promised the MMA's government in the NWFP will not be destabilise. Secondly, Rehman was made opposition leader in the lower house of Parliament.
Five years after enjoying absolute power NWFP, the Islamist parties are now divided and in disarray. Jamat-e-Islami has decided to boycott the elections, scheduled for January 8. The two major parties of the MMA – Fazlur Rehman's JUI-F and Qazi Hussain Ahmed's JI – are poles apart on the issue of boycotting the elections.
The Jamaat says that taking part in the polls would legitimise the process, which according to it is unconstitutional and illegal, particularly after General Musharraf imposed the emergency, issued the Provisional Constitutional Order and sent the defiant judges of superior judiciary home.
While, the JUI-F wants to participate rather than let rival parties take control of its strongholds. In the last National Assembly the MMA had over 60 seats. The JUI-F feels it can still manage to get more than 40 seats, if the Jamaat decides to stay away from the process.
After coming into power in the NWFP, the MMA launched a drive to extend Islamic law, but they failed to change fate of the people – many of whom are still languishing below the poverty lines. Neither could they reduce the crimes through their so-called Islamisation. Nonetheless, the activists tore down billboards they considered obscene, and music was banned from public buses.
The most threatening aspect of the domination of the reactionary forces of the NWFP was that extremism crept in the settled areas of the province. Now the extremists are virtually in control of many areas of Tank, Laki Marwat, Karruk and other districts. That situation developed because moderate forces of the NWFP like Awami National Party were pushed to the wall.
But with former Prime Ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif - leaders of the mainstream moderate opposition parties - back in the political limelight, religious groups are in a quandary about how to shore up their influence. Experts believe the moderate forces possess an opportunity to diminish the influence of the reactionary forces. But will they be successful, is not a simple question to answer.