The water scenario has become critical due to inability of successive governments to build new mega water reservoirs, except Ghazi Brotha, following completion of Simly and Khanpur dams in 1983, and depletion of the storage capacity of the existing water reservoirs from 18.37 MAF to 13.22 MAF due to sedimentation, resulting in 28 per cent loss of their storage capacity
Amongst the pre-requisites for sustained growth and progress of a country, electricity and water occupy a position of great significance. However, Pakistan's thirst for both water and electricity has constantly been rising over the years because of population growth, increase in industrial activity and the successive governments’ failure to harness the country’s water and other resources for producing enough energy to meet its growing needs for electricity.
Resultantly, the country now faces a shortfall of about 1,000 MW of electricity and, according to Private Power and Infrastructure Board, Pakistan's additional demand for electricity is projected to rise to 5,000 MW by 2010.
To meet the widening gap between the demand and supply of electricity, the Planning Commission has drawn up a Vision 2030 programme, which envisages an annual production of 162,590 MW of electricity by 2030. During the last 60 years, the country has, however, been able to achieve an annual generating capacity of 20,000 MW only.
Under the Vision 2030 programme, it is envisaged to increase the annual generating capacity of electricity to: 8,800 MW from nuclear, 32,660 MW from hydel, 19,910 MW from coal and 91,520 MW from gas and oil fired thermal power stations, against 462 MW from nuclear, 6,460 MW from hydel, 200 MW from coal and 12,500 MW from gas/oil thermal stations at present. In addition, the Vision 2030 programme has set a target of obtaining 9,700 MW electricity from alternate sources of energy, including solar, wind, biogas and sea waves etc.
At present, the country has two nuclear power stations, while the third plant, presently under construction, is expected to be operational by 2011. To augment the ratio of nuclear power in the energy mix, the authorities plan to set up few more nuclear power stations. China may reportedly give Pakistan five more nuclear power plants, each having a capacity of 300-1,000 MW.
Pakistan has vast hydel resources, which, according to various studies, have the potential to yield 42,000-45,000 MW electricity. However, these hydel resources have so far largely remained untapped for one reason or the other. Despite its ever-growing needs, Pakistan has been able to utilise only 13 per cent of its hydel resources during the last six decades by constructing reservoirs, barrages and dams. On the other hand, some countries make optimum use of their hydel resources. For example, the USA has developed 497 per cent storage capacity from the annual flow of River Colorado, Egypt 281 per cent on River Nile and India 35 per cent on Sutlej and Bias Basin.
For want of storage reservoirs, in addition to electricity, the scarcity of water has also emerged as one of the main impediments to sustained growth of agriculture and industry. Shortage of water, according to experts, would increase to 100 million acre feet (MAF) by the year 2013 and to 150 MAF by 2025, if new water reservoirs were not built.
The water scenario has become critical due to inability of successive governments to build new mega water reservoirs, except Ghazi Brotha, following completion of Simly and Khanpur dams in 1983, and depletion of the storage capacity of the existing water reservoirs from 18.37 MAF to 13.22 MAF due to sedimentation, resulting in 28 per cent loss of their storage capacity. Meanwhile, fearing scarcity of water in future, many other nations have throughout remained engaged in building mega reservoirs for the storage of this precious gift of the nature. Presently, China is building 95 major dams with a height of 200 feet or more, Turkey 51, Iran 48, Japan 40 and India 10 large dams.
In Pakistan, President Pervez Musharraf can rightly take the credit for being the first leader during the last 30 years who, realising the gravity of the situation initiated work not only on water conservation/irrigation projects but also on hydropower projects. In addition to construction of new multi-purpose dams, raising the height of existing Mangla Dam, the ongoing schemes seek extension in the canal network and building of a number of hydropower plants.
In fact, under Vision 2025 programme, Wapda has already started work on a number of hydropower projects, including Alai Khawar, Khan Khawar and Dabeer Khawar, which would, respectively, add 21 MW, 72 MW and 130 MW electricity to the national grid on completion. Meanwhile, work on 969 MW Neelam-Jhelum Hydropower project is also expected to start in the near future. In addition, feasibility studies on a number of hydropower projects, including 540 MW Bonji and 600 MW Kohala, are in progress. Completion of these projects would increase Pakistan's annual hydropower production to 42,000 MW.
In addition to the runoffs, the country also needs to exploit sea waves, hill torrents and numerous high altitude fresh water lakes, which exist in the Northern Region, for producing electricity. France and some other countries exploit the sea waves for producing energy, while some countries, including Germany (Bavaria) exploit their high altitude lakes for the production of hydropower.
As the flow of water is perennial and fast in streams in the hilly areas, small water reservoirs can be built, at appropriate locations, and used to produce and supply electricity in those far away regions of the country. In case of high altitude lakes, hydropower stations can be built, in the vicinity of the lakes, at sites 100 to 150 metres below the lake level, and the lake water fed to them through pipes for producing electricity. In this case, there is virtually no need to build big water reservoirs. In both the situations, the cascade system is generally the most preferred and economical option.
As the hydel power is comparatively more economical to the thermal and other sources of energy, if used on a wider scale it can provide tariff relief to the consumers, involve Pakistani manpower in the planning, designing and manufacturing of machinery besides accelerating the pace of economic development in the country in general and the remote rural areas in particular.
For electricity generation, coal is another option, however, despite large coal deposits, which exceed 185 billion tons, Pakistan is producing only 200 MW electricity from coal. Pakistan's Vision 2030 programme envisages to increasing electricity production from coal-based thermal plants to 19,910 MW.
Presently, Pakistan is obtaining 12,500 MW electricity from oil and gas fired thermal power stations. However, the country plans to increase electricity generation from this source to 91,520 MW. For obtaining an additional 79,220 MW electricity from thermal power, Pakistan would need to import large quantities of gas and oil, which would further increase country's dependence on imported energy, if new discoveries are not made in the country.
Meanwhile, power thefts and system losses remain extra-ordinarily high in the country. These are 25 – 27 per cent in the case of 16 power distribution companies and up to 47 per cent in the case of Karachi Electric Supply Corporation (KESC). Even induction of disciplined personnel in these companies could not curtail the incidence of thefts and line losses. This calls for overhauling the distribution system on the one hand and on the other to entrust the management of the distribution companies to companies of repute in the private sector.
