Opinion
 
US – Iran Nuclear standoff warming up
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June 24, 2011
US’s face off on nuclear issue with Iran is now almost a decade old, and both in coercive policy and international pressure on Iran, Obama has carried the policy of confrontation and shown no inclination for compromise. Iran on its part has been equally unyielding. It rightly maintains that being a member of NPT it has the right to develop a civilian nuclear programme for energy and that it has no weapon programme.
President Obama in his election campaign promised a balanced foreign policy in the Middle East and less belligerent diplomacy abroad. However since getting into the White House, Obama’s policy has been a continuation of Bush’s agenda and in many ways more strident. Obama has pursued a deeper military engagement in Afghanistan with a ‘surge’ of 30,000 troops, raising the total number of US troops beyond 100,000. This war against terror has also strong echo of past policies. ‘Unilateral action against terrorist, wherever they may be’, in violation of international law and the doctrine of the ‘regime change’ as being presently pursued in Libya are yet other illustrations of this gun boat diplomacy.

US’s face off on nuclear issue with Iran is now almost a decade old, and both in coercive policy and international pressure on Iran, Obama has carried the policy of confrontation and shown no inclination for compromise. Iran on its part has been equally unyielding. It rightly maintains that being a member of NPT it has the right to develop a civilian nuclear programme for energy and that it has no weapon programme. The IAEA nuclear inspectors investigating Iran nuclear sites have also found no evidence that Iran is processing nuclear warhead design or has conducted a nuclear weapon programme. Iran’s contention that its nuclear programme is not weapon oriented and the uranium enrichment is not in violation of the proliferation control regime has been ignored by the US.

The nuclear standoff captured the headlines last month when on June 8 Iran announced its plans to triple its capacity to purify uranium later this year, when it will transfer 20% enrichment uranium from Natanz to the Fordo plant. The announcement brought immediate condemnation from the EU and the US, calling it “provocative”, asking Iran to reconsider its announced intension to expand its enrichment programme.

Iran has already been subjected to four rounds of sanctions since 2006 by the Security Council at the initiative of US. The 2008 sanctions are most stringent and comprehensive. The list includes 22 companies involved in alleged nuclear activities in addition to 40 Iranian individuals subject to an asset freeze. The resolution further requires UN members to conduct cargo inspection on Iranian vessels. Additional sanctions have been imposed by the US and EU unilaterally against Iranian entities including banks and foreign investment. These measures, however, have failed to break the resolve of Iranian leadership.

Iran’s nuclear diplomacy has shown extreme finesse and deft handling of a highly sensitive issue. While maintaining its nuclear stance, Iran has agreed to proposal through IAEA and UN to divert if not defuse the concerns on Iran programme. In May 2010, Iran agreed to the UN offer to part with 1200 kg of low and enrich uranium, which is potentially nuclear weapon material, in return for special fuel rods for medical research. It entered into a deal with Turkey and Brazil under which it would ship some low enrichment uranium to Turkey in return for higher grade fuel for research reactor. EU and the US however, rejected the deal.

The deal was a part of an offer by the US and EU in 2008 to Iran extending diplomatic security and economic incentive, in return for Iran dropping parts of its nuclear programme that could be used to build atomic bomb and relying on Europe for supply of fuel for its reactors which Tehran maintains are for peaceful purposes. The proposals emerged after two years of intensive diplomacy by European negotiators — Britain, France and Germany — but were rejected by Iran as “they provide no guarantee for Iran’s interests and are contrary to NPT.” The negotiations with EU that started in October 2003 had resulted in an agreement to suspend uranium enrichment and a second agreement in November 2007 signed in Paris to suspend all enrichment related activities while the talks continue.

The EU package identified political and security cooperation, economic and technology cooperation and support for Iran civil nuclear programme, providing, inter alia, (a) access to global nuclear technologies market, (b) help to develop a civil nuclear programme, (c) help identify Iranian requirements for a further research reactor, (d) cooperate in other peaceful uses of nuclear energy and (e) long term supply of fuel of light water reactor. In return, Iran will not pursue fuel cycle activities other than construction and operation of light water power and research reactor, and it will not withdraw from NPT and keep the IAEA safeguards.

The diplomatic efforts continued and in January 2011 talks were held in Istanbul between Iran and so called P5-plus-1 group of Britain, China, France, Russia, US and Germany. P5-plus-1 sought to negotiate a revised version of nuclear fuel swap proposal and vase to improve transparency through monitoring measures by IAEA. Iran, however, insisted on recognition of its rights to enrich uranium and the lifting of sanctions as a pre condition for talks as a possible nuclear fuel swap. The talks failed but both sides termed them as ‘positive’ and “door remains open”.

The recent announcement to triple the enrichment capacity and transfer 20% enrich uranium to Fardo has heightened the existing concern and tension. US is contemplating to extend the sanctions net. The Fardo plant was built secretly deep inside a mountain near the holy city of Qum. In February this year, Iran informed IAEA that Fardo plant was prepared to keep centrifuges and would become operational in summer.

Iran’s latest move has prompted US to launch a fresh campaign to enlist greater international support against Iran. Secretary Clinton has reiterated US resolve not to let Iran ever develop atomic arms and has urged Arabs to confront Iran for promoting tensions and instability in region.

Iran’s riposte has been a statement by President Ahmedi Nijad accusing US of planning to sabotage Pakistani nuclear facilities. “We have precise information that America wants to sabotage the Pakistani nuclear facilities in order to control Pakistan and weaken its government and people. The US would then make use of the UNSC and some other international bodies as levers to prepare the ground for massive presence and weaken sovereignty of Pakistan”, he told a press conference in Tehran.

The alarming statement has fallen on receptive ears as there are growing apprehensions in Pakistani public based on a host of media reports of US design on Pakistan nukes. It is a subtle move on the part of Iran to reach out to anti-American lobby, play on the fears of Pakistanis and weaken American position in the Muslim world. How affective this strategy would be is yet to be seen, but it certainly enlarges the scope of controversy and face-off.

What ever the motivation or truth behind these allegations, Pakistan must reckon it seriously. The increasing scary scenario in the US and western media about the possibilities of Pakistan’s nuclear assets falling into the hand of extremist should cause us deep reflection and concern and demand higher security profile for our nuclear assets.


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