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Pessimistic situation warrants Grand Strategy
May 13, 2011
The ruling elite’s unconvincing response on both the Pakistani intelligence failure in detecting Osama’s hideout in Abbotabad and air-defense impotency in detecting the four American helicopters’ swift incursion has confused and demoralized the people of Pakistan. People have been worried about the security of the country. They have been demanding that government should take appropriate measures to guard the sovereignty of the state.
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The dramatic killing of Osama germinated great upheaval in the Pakistani domestic politics and raised serious concerns regarding the state security and sovereignty. The assassination of the 21st century terrorist icon did not end the insecurity of the people of Pakistan. The terrorist groups articulated their resolve to hit the innocent citizens and law-enforcement agencies of the country. In addition, the United States is not ready to change its unilateral striking strategy. In simple words, it will continue violating the sovereignty of Pakistan. This pessimistic situation certainly warrants chalking out a pragmatic Grand Strategy to ensure the security of the people and also to guard the sovereignty of the country.
The ruling elite’s unconvincing response on both the Pakistani intelligence failure in detecting Osama’s hideout in Abbotabad and air-defense impotency in detecting the four American helicopters’ swift incursion has confused and demoralized the people of Pakistan. People have been worried about the security of the country. They have been demanding that government should take appropriate measures to guard the sovereignty of the state.
The presence of transnational terrorist groups in its urban centers and peripheral regions is very much detrimental for Pakistan. The government’s failure to eliminate the terrorist sanctuaries and their nexus with the local militant groups not only destabilizes the country internally, but also maligns its image internationally. On May 9, 2011, Prime Minister Gilani tried to restore the confidence of the nation by making a policy statement in the National Assembly over the US Navy SEALs swoop on bin Laden’s hideout in Abbotabad. While defending the premier national intelligence agency, he stated: “Indeed, the ISI is a national asset and has the full support of the government. We are proud of its considerable accomplishments.” He announced that Adjutant General of Pakistan Army Lt-Gen Javed Iqbal will investigate the entire episode.
The leader of the opposition in National Assembly, Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, severely criticized the government policy. Referring to prime minister’s statement, he said ‘the questions which are being raised in bazaars and streets remain unanswered’. He stated: “The nation wants to know how Osama reached Abbottabad and lived there for such a long time without the knowledge of the security agencies.” The majority of Pakistani security observers were also unimpressed with the policy statement of the head of the government.
The opposition in the National Assembly seemed dissatisfied with the institutional inquiry alone; they are demanding a national commission to investigate the failure of defence establishment. Mr Nisar argued that “the commission should be comprised of people from the cross section of society with a specific time frame to come out with its findings.”
The prime minister’s policy statement contains futile historical narrative. It is important that the ruling elite of the country should leave the history of the country aside or stop repeating the historical mistakes to camouflage its own misdeeds. It needs to understand that history is important for understanding the present, but it has nothing to do with the future course of action. The current trends must guide our future policies. Unfortunately, the government is simply clamoring ‘why is it happening,’ instead of eliminating the causes of the menace of terrorism and factors which are responsible for foreign incursions.
The United States’ successful operation has boosted its moral and justified its unilateral operational strategy on the territory of Pakistan. Instead of admitting that it violated the sovereignty of its frontline state in the war on terrorism, it has been threatening that it would not change its policy. On My 9, 2011, the United States Ambassador to Pakistan Cameron Munter stated that Pakistan had to take decision wisely whether it would take action against Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri and spiritual leader of Taliban Mullah Omar with support of Obama administration or face unilateral action by the US. The message is very clear.
The Americans lawmaker and think-tanks have been questioning Pakistan’s sincerity and commitment to fight terrorism. Ironically, they are not ready to admit that Osma was hiding in a garrison town without the support of Pakistani intelligence. Though the government of Pakistan is claiming that the den of Al-Qaeda’s leader was identified by the CIA after the detection of his courier by Pakistani intelligence agency, the Americans question its role in this protracted asymmetrical warfare.
The Americans articulated that from the Osma’s compound, they recovered a lot of data in the form of computers, USB drives, etc. This information will certainly assist them in unearthing the secret groups and sympathizers of Al-Qaeda residing in different parts of the world, including Pakistan. Indeed, it would increase Washington’s pressure on Islamabad to do more. The disadvantageous position of Pakistan would multiply its problems.
The pragmatic approach to get rid of this entire mess is that Pakistan should revise its foreign and strategic policy. It should chalk out a strategy, which completely negates the concepts and tactics such as ‘strategic-depth’ and ‘strategic-assets’. Indeed, for last three decades, the Pakistani state and society has been a victim of these imprudent strategic notions.
Pakistan is a nuclear weapon state. It possesses reliable nuclear delivery systems. Its strategic and tactical nuclear weapons multiplied the defensive power of its conventional forces. Despite country’s gigantic military potential, the makers of strategy in Pakistan have been failing to act confidently. Therefore, it is imperative that the government should constitute a ‘Grand-Strategy’ in consultation with all stakeholders. Simultaneously, it should rehabilitate or eliminate all the militant laskhars or terrorist cells operating in the country.
Internal vulnerability of the state always invites or encourages the external incursions. In the realpolitik, only those nations have a luxury to act as sovereign political entities, which are capable to establish rule of the law within the state, and with their domestic strength, are capable to guard their borders.
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