Economy
 
Energy crisis hijacksPakistan’s prosperity
Visits 43
Visits 43
June 29, 2012
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has termed the economic growth of 3.7% ‘notable’ — a figure that is below the government’s target of 4.2%.The SBP’s Third Quarterly Report cites damage to cotton crop due to floods, ongoing energy shortage, rise in international oil prices and security concerns as the stumbling blocks.

It also hinted as wheat crop to be another stumbling block in the coming future. The commodity’s production, currently in process, is expected to drop amid lower yield and water shortage.The growth rate of 3.7% posted during July 2011 to March 2012 is better than the growth of 3% last year and also comes in the wide range of 3% to 4% projected by the central bank.This growth was supported by a better harvest, pick up in construction and increase in value addition from the finance and insurance sub-sector, adds the report.

The report also mentions that there has been a shift in the largest contributor during the financial year with commodity producing sectors taking over domestic growth such as car sales.The agriculture sector performed better this year with livestock remaining the highest contributor in agriculture GDP.Major crops, mainly the kharif crops – rice, cotton, sugarcane and maize – also contributed to agricultural growth.

The report gave a heads-up to the disappointing wheat outlook, a commodity that contributes 13% of the total value addition by the agricultural sector and is cultivated over 37% of the total crop area.

Preliminary estimates suggest a total production of 23.5 million tons, compared with 25.2 million tons realised in the previous year. Not only was the area under wheat cultivation lower this year, but crop yields also declined because of lower fertilizer use and water shortages.Hence, even the incentive of higher wheat support prices fell short in enhancing production towards achieving the target of 25 million tons.

The industrial sector surpassed its growth target of 3.1% for financial year 2012, mainly due to higher-than-targeted growth in mining and construction industries.With the end of winter, construction activity – one of the largest contributor to the growth – gained further momentum particularly in March. As a result, cement sales reached a record high of 2.6 million tons in March 2012, showing a yearly growth of 10.6% over March last year. Moreover, some building material producers, whose production had been declining until the last quarter, posted positive growth in the third quarter.

According to preliminary estimates for fiscal 2012, the construction industry reported 6.5% growth compared to a 7.1% decline in FY11. This growth was well above the target of 2.5%.Higher inflows of project aid and larger fund releases under the public sector development programme, suggest greater activity in public sector projects. The food, beverages and tobacco industry has performed well on the back of a better harvest, strong domestic demand, and greater exports to Afghanistan.

Over the past year, five new beverage plants have opened in Khyber-Pukhtunkhwa. The government also reduced excise duties on beverages in financial year 2012 budget. Similarly, oil and ghee exports to Afghanistan have also been higher.In the pharmaceutical industry, the government reduced the customs duty on raw material imports – in most cases from 10% to 5% – which made exports more competitive. In the domestic market, an upward revision of some medicine prices also led to improved margins.


It is widely held that the import of consumer durables is impeding the domestic industry. In the case of home electronics, smuggling of Korean and Indian TV sets – via Dubai and Afghan Transit Trade route – and under-valuation and under-invoicing of Malaysian and Chinese air conditioners have put the local industry under stress.In the lower-end of the market, the demand for fans has fallen substantially because of extreme load-shedding in Punjab.

The State Bank observed that although the economy has shown some recovery in terms of GDP growth, the key macro indicators still remain weak

State Bank of Pakistan Governor Yaseen Anwar addressing at national roll-out of Microfinance-exclusive Credit Information Bureau (MF-CIB) at SBP Learning Resource Centre said that Microfinance-exclusive Credit Information Bureau will help Microfinance Banks (MFBs) and Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) in developing robust risk management system and practices, which in turn reduce the risk of multiple borrowing and loan defaults.

He said the MF-CIB will open access to credit for millions of potential poor borrowers and reduce the credit risk cost of the lenders, besides lowering the loan price for the borrowers.Anwar pointed out that at present even the credit-worthy borrowers of microfinance institutions face difficulty in accessing larger loans from MFBs or commercial banks due to non-availability of their long history of loans and timely repayments with a microfinance institution.

‘The MF-CIB will facilitate in the ‘graduation’ of such livelihood-based workers into small entrepreneurs,’ he added. He said that this nation-wide MF-CIB will be a major step for both lenders and borrowers with positive impact. ‘As the CIB expands its operations across the country, the quality and efficiency of the loan appraisal process will improve significantly, he added.SBP believes that a policy framework for credit bureaus is essential for their smooth and long-term growth, he said., adding that the Government and SBP have already been working on the development of a legal framework, which will strengthen private CIBs by establishing criteria for licensing, issuing regulations, and creating oversight mechanism. ‘All this will result into stakeholders’ satisfaction, and, most importantly, it will boost public confidence,’ he added.

Governor SBP urged upon the CEOs/ Presidents of MFBs and MFIs to improve corporate governance, management structures and put in place adequate systems & policies in their respective organizations for ensuring protection of consumer rights. SBP is already in the process of revising regulations to ensure that MFBs follow best standards in these critical areas, he said and added: ‘We count on your wisdom and commitment to reach out to millions of financially excluded people.’ SBP encourages that credit growth should be fairly distributed across all economic, social, and geographic segments of the target market. ‘The MFBs and MFIs should develop innovative credit methodologies and appropriate risk management policies to maintain growth and quality of loan portfolios,’ he added. It may be pointed out here that the MF-CIB is a joint initiative of the SBP, PMN and PPAF, with funding support from the DFID under its “Financial Inclusion Program” being managed by the SBP.

The statement of Governor SBP is significant as it highlights one of the biggest hurdles in business activities. If getting access to business loan is made easier then the target of fast-paced economic development can be achieved. The political upheavals in the country are the biggest hurdle in the promotion of business activity.

The country's political situation is before everyone. After the Supreme Court decision YousafRazaGilani has been disqualified and a new prime minister is in place. Due to political upheavals the investment situation is not feasible and ideal. Load shedding has destroyed the industry and unemployment is on the rise. The load shedding problem does not seem to end.

Pakistan’s financial penetration is the lowest in the world and 56 percent of its population is completely out of it while 32 percent have informal access. Currently, people who have access to loans from microfinance are facing great difficulty in getting loans.

The reality can’t be denied that until political stability is achieved business activities can’t gain the momentum. Investors always prefer countries that are politically stable and have ample energy resources. Although Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are not developed countries, they have achieved political stability due to which investors are turning to them. If Pakistan achieves political stability and solves the problem of energy crisis then business activities would gain momentum.

NA-121 Lahore has been in the grip of the PML-N since 1985, but evolving ground realties in the constituency, including the surfacing of the PTI as a new political force and the re-entry of the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) into electoral politics, ensures a tough electoral contest on May 11. In the past three elections, the PML-N and the JI coalition has won this seat. But in the upcoming polls, the ri
As the election campaign progresses, incidents of violence and lawlessness have increased. The law enforcement agencies have become silent spectators strengthening fears that blood will spill during elections this year. Attacks on the offices of political parties have gained momentum as May 11 — the day of elections — draws near. Since the announcement of election date, nine blasts have occurred i
The Pakistan Muslim League is likely to play a leading role in the formation of a coalition government in Balochistan, according to independent analysts who are closely monitoring the post-poll scenario. However, the key to this coalition is in the hands of the Pushtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP), which has emerged as a top winner with 9 seats in the 51- member provincial assembly, according
District Swat gives a new look with regard to 2013 elections as unlike 2008 elections when the law and order situation was very serious due to Maulana Fazlullah factor and only small portion of voters participated in them. However as it is evident from the enthusiastic electioneering campaign in the recent days a proportionate big turnout is expected on May 11. Unexpectedly in 2008 elections ANP h
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