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Pak-India ties: start of a new era?
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June 22, 2012
The recent talks between the defence secretaries of Pakistan and India over Siachen issue show that both countries want to settle their outstanding issues. But unfortunately the talks were failed because of the Indian government’s stubborn attitude. Both countries have fought many wars and lost hundreds of men, but regrettably both have not learnt from their past mistakes.

It is clear that after the nuclearisation of the subcontinent any major war is not possible but the possibility of a limited war cannot be ruled out. The ingredients of war e.g Kashmir, water issue, and terrorism are still there and it is a possibility that the next war between both states may start over these unresolved issues.

There is a history of mistrust and suspicion between India and Pakistan. Soon after the independence of Pakistan, India annexed few states which should have been part of Pakistan including Kashmir, Junagarh etc. Such a step from India compelled Pakistan to grow up as a security state. Then wars in 1965 and 1971 further widened the gap between two states. In 1974 India tested its first nuclear device and started a new arms race in the region. Pakistan had no other option but to go for nuclear weapons to avoid 1971 type of annihilation in future and also to deter a conventionally larger enemy.

Relations between both states have never been cordial. Both countries started nuclear signaling in 1980s to 1990s. According to different estimates Pakistan had developed nuclear capability in 1980s. Pakistan deterred India in 1986-87 when it amassed huge forces in Brass Tacks military exercises close to the border with Pakistan. In 1984 India secretly annexed Siachen glacier raising an alarm in Islamabad. Siachen glacier has no strategic value but despite that both countries are occupying posts at an elevation of 6,000 to 20,000 ft. Both countries have suffered a lot at Siachen. Losses on the Indian side have surpassed Pakistan. India has lost almost 8,000 soldiers whereas the casualty rate at Pakistan side stands at 5000. Most of these soldiers died due to harsh weather conditions. In 1999 Pakistan repeated at Kargil what India did in 1984 at Siachen.

Pakistan military in harsh winter captured Kargil posts with an exceptionally fabulous military operation but due to logistical constraints and lack of strategic operational planning, it had to vacate Kargil. Relations between both countries were at their lowest ebb after the Kargil war. The attack on Indian parliament brought both countries in front of each other. India moved its forces to border to teach Pakistan a lesson where as Pakistan also moved its forces to border and a war-like situation paralyzed both nations. Eventually an effective diplomacy by international community and nuclear signaling between both states helped in defusing the tensions between both states.

Pakistan in good will gesture started crackdown on organisations who were involved in Kashmir freedom struggle. Meantime Musharraf suffered two assassination attempts but escaped unhurt. Pakistan started the dialogue process with India and slowly moved towards the resolution of issues including Kashmir and others. But in 2008 relations between India and Pakistan suffered a huge blow because of Mumbai attacks. The Indian government and the media outright blamed Pakistan for those terrorist attacks and the situation got worse. Both countries were again on the edge and there was total breakdown in the dialogue process.

Under the PPP government relations between both countries are again on track. Pakistan allowed Indian goods to Afghanistan; the possibility of MFN status and exchange of good will gestures by both states would improve relations. But if we want a long-term viable relationship between the two states then we have to resolve all outstanding issues including Kashmir, Siachen, sir creek, water disputes, and terrorism.

On the one side, India is carrying out dialogue with Pakistan for peace, on the other it is modernizing its overall military machine and creating a huge conventional disparity. Such policies would provoke an arms race in the region. Suspicion and mistrust between both states would further jeopardize the already fragile relations. It is necessary for regional peace that the two countries resolve their outstanding issues for long term peace and stability of south Asia.

The author is Research Fellow at South Asian Strategic Stability Institute Islamabad and can be reached at masood.khatak@gmail.com

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