Politics
 
Elections-2013: a Ray of Hope or Symbol of Despair
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June 15, 2012
Pakistan is facing many challenges today. Political instability and blame game among political parties is order of the day. For next general elections in 2013, a tug-of-war is already underway between Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, Muttahida Qaumi Movement, Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam, Muslim League-Q, Likeminded Group, Pakistan Tehrik Insaf and many other political parties.

Many political leaders and parties are changing their loyalties for the next general elections and joining other camps. Elections-2013 would be the toughest contest in the political history of Pakistan because it would be free and fair under the supervision of vibrant media and active judiciary. This time, military and intelligence agencies will not play any negative role in these elections. The policy of siding with one party and marginalizing the other is over now.

Army has shown unwavering support for the democratic process in Pakistan. Under the command of Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, Army closed its political wing and supported the civilian government. Gen Kayani’s role is commendable and will be remembered. Despite getting so many chances to bring coup, he supported the democratic setup, respected the mandate of the people and never tried to derail the political system.

If we analyse the current political situation in Pakistan, then we can say that PPP and their cronies i.e. MQM, PML-Q, ANP, and others will contest election-2013 as allies. Keeping in mind the position of PPP in Pakistan, it is a possibility that PPP will win good number of seats in Sindh, because of their unwavering vote bank.

In addition to this, it would be difficult for any other party to break MQM’s vote bank, and it is a possibility that MQM will again emerge as a major party with 20 to 25 seats in the National assembly. Whereas, PML-Q and ANP will face tough resistance by PML-N and PTI in Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. But if we analyse on numbers, then PPP and its allies would get a good number of seats in the next general elections.

PML-N is also determined to win in Punjab, but it would be difficult for them to get some seats in Sindh. They may get some support in Balochistan and KPK. In Balochistan, PML-N will face resistance from nationalist parties and JI, and in KPK, they will face tough time by ANP, PTI, JUI-F and other religious or nationalist parties. But it is expected that PML-N will again be a majority party in Punjab. However, to get majority in the National Assembly, it has to join hands with other political parties, otherwise it would be difficult for them to stop the PPP and their allies from coming into power again.

PTI could be a game changer if they get overwhelming support of the youth. The problem with the youth is that they never take interest in the elections, and most of them never cast votes. Pakistani youth must cast their vote this time. As per surveys, the young generation in Pakistan wants change because they are sick and tired of the treachery of the already tested corrupt political parties.

They see a ray of hope in Imran khan, and they believe that he can bring a change in Pakistan. But, unfortunately, most of the population in Pakistan is illiterate and politically naive. For example, PPP’s corruption is in front of everyone. In their four years of government, Pakistan’s economy is on the verge of collapse, foreign debt has been doubled, and energy shortage and load shedding has played havoc with the industrial output. Transparency international’s report has also exposed corruption of this government. Despite all these malpractices, PPP’s vote bank in Sindh is intact. This means that with the help of their allies, they will be able to maintain a majority in the lower house of the parliament. Such an outcome will be unfortunate for Pakistan.
It is expected that PML-N will win considerable seats, but PML-N’s leadership’s autocratic style will cost them a lot. They have to show some flexibility and bring anti-PPP political forces under their clout. If they are able to get the support of PTI, JUI-F, Like-minded group and other nationalist parties in KPK, Balochistan and Sindh, then it is a possibility that PML-N will emerge as a major political force in the next general elections in 2013.

PML-N has become mature enough in last 11 years. Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif has played a commendable role in the development of Punjab province. It is imperative for the PML-N to broaden their horizon and join hands with other smaller parties who can win significant number of seats. PML-N alone cannot win against PPP and their allies.

Pakistan needs political stability because it is facing numerous security challenges to its existence. There is instability and turmoil in FATA; drone strikes are inexorable, fueling an unending war in the tribal belt; cross-border raids have also caused huge damages; and target killing in Karachi has played havoc with the peace and stability of the economic hub of Pakistan. Only a politically-stable government can save Pakistan.

Security situation in Balochistan is also getting worse day by. We need a political solution in Balochistan because with the use of force, we can never resolve this issue. There is dramatic surge in kidnapping for ransom, street crimes, and bank robberies in every nook and corner of Pakistan.

Political instability has added duel to fire. Apart from all these internal matters, our relations with America, Afghanistan, India and Iran are also not convivial. Pak-US relations are at their lowest ebb since 2011. America and its allies are planning a withdrawal from Afghanistan, but we don’t have any political strategy to cope up with these emerging challenges in the neighborhood.

At this moment, Pakistan needs political stability at home -- only then can Pakistan face internal and external challenges. A step towards political stability would be free and fair elections in 2013 under the supervision of independent election commissioner, sovereign judiciary, and free, independent & impartial media.

Whosoever wins elections in 2013, other parties must accept the mandate of the people, support the winning party and work together for the peace and stability of Pakistan. New government must focus on energy projects on priority basis. Pakistan must also invest in renewable energy sources like wind, coal, solar, and thermal power, because in near future, dependency on oil will become a nuisance for already ailing economy, and fate of gas pipelines from Iran and Central Asia is also uncertain due to geo-political compulsions.

It is advisable for the next government to mend its ties with the neighboring countries including India, Iran and Afghanistan. Policy of confrontation has to be changed with the policy of cooperation for mutual benefit. Pakistan needs tax reforms at a large scale; it is necessary to bring more people into the tax net to increase the income of the state.

Pakistan’s major issue is corruption; whosoever comes in power must take some concrete steps to eradicate this menace from society. There is a need of free and fair National Accountability Bureau, and anti-corruption department in Pakistan. Only then can we overcome this nuisance. Next elections will decide the fate of Pakistan and it is expected that Pakistan will emerge as a vibrant nation after general elections-2013.

  • Khyber-PakhtunKhawa
  • Balochistan
  • Punjab
  • Sindh
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