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Afghan quagmire: need for practical solution
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May 25, 2012
NATO’s Chicago summit-2012 is an effort to decide about the future of international alliance in Afghanistan after 2014. The issues which are of high importance are withdrawal of 130,000 troops from Afghanistan and handing over the security to Afghan security forces. Other issues include arrangement of funds for the maintenance of Afghan security forces. Issue of reopening of supply lines from Pakistan, Pakistan’s support in the dialogue process with Taliban, elimination of alleged safe havens of Taliban and Al-Qaeda-linked militants inside FATA and operation against Haqqani network and other linked militant groups will also be on the agenda of this meeting.

Training of the Afghan security forces will be crucial for the stability of Afghanistan. To maintain a force of 350,000 after 2014 will require at least 4.1 billion dollars annually. Ashraf Ghani, who is head of the commission overseeing the process of passing the baton to Afghan forces, says: “Our security forces last year cost $6 billion while our national revenue was $1.7 billion”. It is impossible for Afghanistan to bear such a huge cost; definitely this burden will be shared by the US allies and international community.

Keeping in mind global financial crunch and unpopularity of Afghan war in Europe, it would be an uphill task for the US-led alliance to bear this huge cost. No body can guarantee peace in Afghanistan after 2014.

It is unlikely that Afghan security forces at this stage will be able to secure Afghanistan from possible civil war and Taliban onslaught. It is idiocy to accept this half truth that Afghan security forces are ready to take responsibility of Afghanistan. Other important issue is of composition of the Afghan security forces. As we know that Taliban are mostly of Pashtun origin who were neglected after the US attack on Afghanistan. If Afghan army and other law-enforcement agencies are composed of other factions and Pashtun factor is again ignored then we can expect a bloody civil war in the offing.

Such a move by the US-led alliance would not only politically destabilize Afghanistan, but also provoke an unending civil war among different ethnic groups in Afghanistan for the control of Kabul. Such a scenario would be alarming for Pakistan. Influx of refugees and cross-border raids would seriously hamper internal security of Pakistan. There is a need for political settlement in Afghanistan. All stakeholders should be on board including the Pashtuns, Uzbek, Tajik, Hazaras, war lords and other warring parties.

Another major issue is instability and turmoil in Pakistani tribal areas. These areas are unstable because of the uncertain political and security situation in Afghanistan. If Afghanistan is politically stabilized then there won’t be any disturbance in these areas. People of these areas are peace loving, therefore, instead of drone strikes and cross-border raids, there is a need to take tribal elders into confidence. To counter insurgency in tribal areas, Pakistani military carried out this strategy and raised Lashkars of tribal people. These Lashkars played a vital role in countering militant groups in tribal areas. But due to uninterrupted drone strikes, tribal elders are also getting against Pakistan army. It is necessary for the US to give peace a chance in Afghanistan and Pakistan. It has been proven that with the use force, we cannot win this war against terror. We need to have some political way out.

To achieve this goal we need support of the local population. Pakistan carried out effective military operations against militants in Swat and tribal areas with the support of local population, whereas situation in Afghanistan was different, and most of the operations by allied forces met with miserable failures, because local population was not in support of coalition forces. There is a huge cultural gap between allied forces and the local population. This is the reason that we have seen many incidents of Afghan soldiers involved in the killing of foreign troops. This gap was never filled, and which caused huge setbacks in Afghanistan in last 11 years.

Support for Afghan war is at its lowest ebb in Europe and America. Most of the people in America and Europe believe that they are fighting an unjust war. According to AP-GFK recent poll, only 27 percent of Americans support Afghan war while 66 percent oppose it. Public opinion in Europe is also against this war and they want an early pullout from Afghanistan. Australian government has already announced that they will bring back their troops in 2013, but their support for Afghanistan will continue in terms of training, reconstruction and development. French government has also announced that they will also pull out their troops from Afghanistan in 2013, but will continue their support with financial assistance and training of the Afghans security forces.

According to NATO’s Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen some allies have pledged to contribute a significant amount for Afghanistan. Britain has pledged $100 million annually; Italy, $120 million; Australia, $100 million; and Turkey, $20 million. It is expected that France will contribute around $256 and Canada $125 million. NATO secretary general believes that other partners will also come forward and pledge a considerable sum for the stability of Afghanistan.

US policy in Afghanistan is marred by suspicion and doubt. After strategic deal with Afghanistan, it is expected that America will stay there even beyond 2014 with around 15,000 to 25,000 troops. This means drone strikes, night raids, cross-border attacks and covert operations by Special Forces will continue in Afghanistan and Pakistani tribal areas. This force will be there to secure America’s strategic interests in Afghanistan, Central Asia and Pakistan, to eliminate safe havens of Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and to keep continued surveillance on nuclear activities of Iran. Presence of foreign forces after 2014 will destabilize Afghanistan. Taliban will attack these forces with impunity and more frequently. Ultimately, Afghanistan will again plunge into the quagmire of instability and turmoil.

Afghanistan needs some practical solutions; it is difficult for NATO to achieve the goal of a stable and prosperous Afghanistan. There is a lack of commitment in the US-led alliance. ISAF has seen frequent failures in last 11 years and now they are war weary. Their shaking economies and incensed public opinion does not allow them to continue this aimless war.

It is advisable that instead of spending billions of dollars on Afghan security forces, the US-led alliance with the help of regional countries like Pakistan, Russia, China, Iran and Central Asian states starts dialogue process in Afghanistan. There is a need to give equal political representation to all ethnic groups in Afghanistan. Politically stable Afghanistan will bring peace and prosperity and end hostilities among ethnic groups.

Pakistan’s role will be crucial in the stability of Afghanistan. Pakistan’s security forces proactively carry out search operation against militants linked with Al-Qaeda and other groups and never allow Pakistan’s soil against any neighboring country. Stable Afghanistan is in the interest of Pakistan. Stability in Afghanistan will open avenues of trade for Pakistan with resource rich Central Asian state. Without any comprehensive political strategy, it is not possible for international community to resolve Afghan issue. Role of the regional countries is crucial for the long-term peace and stability of Afghanistan.


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