Opinion
 
Shaheen-1A: technological advancement
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May 04, 2012
The recent missile tests of India and Pakistan accentuate the fact that both sides cling to their policies of strategic competition and the enduring primacy of military security. The investment in the military sectors will continue, with this arms race undermining the social and economic prosperity of both nations. Hence, it is imperative that New Delhi and Islamabad realize that arms race only intensifies their insecurity and taxes their resources without any bona fide dividends.
The ballistic missiles coupled with nuclear weapons have provided Pakistan the capability to bypass the battlefield and hit New Delhi or strategic targets in the Indian heartland and also far-away into South-India with relative impunity. This striking capability is an integral component of Pakistan’s deterrence strategy. Therefore, Islamabad jealously guards and avidly improves its missile capability.

On April 19, 2012, New Delhi proudly announced the successful testing of Agni-V nuclear capable intercontinental ballistic missile. The introduction of Agni-V in India’s arsenal did not instigate Islamabad to follow suit. Though Agni-V had not prompted or shaken Pakistani strategic enclave, the makers of Pakistani strategy could not remain oblivious to India’s craze to amass large quantities of conventional, ballistic missile defense systems and series of Pakistan specific nuclear capable ballistic and cruise missiles.

Since November 2007, India has also carried out a series of Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system tests and announced confidently that it would deploy these missiles within a few years. Dr. V K Saraswat, a leading scientist of Defense Research and Development Organization, claimed in December 2007: ‘Within three years, major cities such as Delhi and Mumbai would be under a protective shield. A county, which has a small arsenal, will think twice before it ventures.’ It reflects New Delhi’s consistency in institutionalizing a sophisticated Missile Defense System to reverse the prevailing strategic equilibrium between India and Pakistan, which was corrected by nuclear explosions in Chaghi on May 28, 1998.

Admittedly, it is debatable whether the Indian BMD would have any practical military significance in the Indo-Pakistan geo-strategic environment, but it is obvious that it would have ramifications for the deterrence stability in South Asia. The confusion about the practicability of the BMD in subcontinent strategic environment lessened due to the India-United States strategic partnership and the latter’s decision to assist the former in its space technology pursuits. In addition, New Delhi and Tel Aviv defense pact has also boosted India’s both offensive and defensive missiles inventories.

India’s gigantic increase in defense budget (i.e. around 40 billion US dollars) and advances in weaponry certainly have serious ramifications for the regional strategic environment in general and destabilizing repercussions for Pakistani defensive fence in particular. The fattening of Indian military muscle necessitates that Islamabad should revise its strategic policy to uphold the credibility of its nuclear deterrence capability. More precisely, despite economic constraints due to a decade long global war on terrorism, Islamabad has to vigilantly invest in defense sector for preserving its sovereign defense against its eastern neighbor.

Importantly, the greater than ever conventional asymmetry between India and Pakistan has been increasing the latter reliance on nuclear weapons, especially on the nuclear capable delivery systems. A sober reading of Pakistan’s strategic posture reveals that Ballistic Missile systems, especially Shaheen series, remain an integral component of its nuclear strategy.

Pakistan introduced a new version of Shaheen ballistic missile on April 25, 2012. According to the ISPR Press Release (No PR98/2012-ISPR): “Pakistan successfully conducted the launch of the intermediate Range Ballistic Missile Hatf IV, Shaheen-1A Weapon System.” The missile is an improved version of Shaheen-1 with improvements in range and technical parameters. It is capable of carrying nuclear and conventional warheads.” The Director General of Strategic Plan Division (SPD), Lieutenant General Khalid Ahmed Kidwai (R), stated that “the improved version of Shaheen-1A will further consolidate and strengthen Pakistan’s deterrence abilities.” Prior to the last week missile test, Pakistan had two versions of Shaheen missiles. Among them, Shaheen-I was already handed over to the strategic forces.

Name Fuel Alternate Names Range (km) Payload (kg) Test Firings Developed by Status

Hatf-4 Solid Shaheen-1 750 1000 April 1999 NDC In service

Hatf-6 Solid Shaheen-II 2400-2500 1000 March 2004 NDC ?

The Shaheen-1A attracted the attention of the strategic observers because its impact point was at sea. It means that it augmented Pakistan’s maritime military capability. India’s obsession to build its blue water Navy with the introduction of aircraft carriers and leased nuclear propelled submarines from Russian Federation undermines the coastal security of the Indian Ocean littoral states. Indeed, Shaheen-1A would be an effective weapon to deter the adversary naval aggression or blockade of Pakistani seaports.

The SPD did not share the actual range of Shaheen-IA, yet it mentioned that the missile is intermediate range and technically improved nuclear capable delivery vehicle. This deliberate concealment policy about the range does not hide the fact that its range is substantially greater than the older Shaheen-1. The term “intermediate”, itself is very much explanatory. At least, Shaheen-1A is neither short nor medium.

The recent missile tests of India and Pakistan accentuate the fact that both sides cling to their policies of strategic competition and the enduring primacy of military security. The investment in the military sectors will continue, with this arms race undermining the social and economic prosperity of both nations. Hence, it is imperative that New Delhi and Islamabad realize that arms race only intensifies their insecurity and taxes their resources without any bona fide dividends.

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