Opinion
 
Agni-V: Military Objectives beyond South Asia
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April 27, 2012
India has taken a lead in developing, testing, producing and deploying ballistic missiles in South Asia. The developed world assisted India instead of discouraging it. India’s Agni-V test, certainly, compels many nations to revisit their military doctrines and advance their military postures.
India’s missile project is on an advancing trajectory. The Indian scientists demonstrated their capability to design, develop and produce Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) on April 19, 2012. They conducted a successful test of Agni-V ballistic missile at Wheeler Island off the Odisha coast. The missile range is 5,000 km. It is a three stage solid propellant missile. Its speed is impressive, because within 18 to 20 minutes, it hits the target.

Presently, the fattening of Indian military muscle only intensifies the security dilemma of Pakistan. The critical review of global politics’ history and dynamics of real-politick predicts that sooner the nations which believe that India should emerge as a ‘Great Power’ to check China, would feel the repercussions of another global military power.

The recent successful test of Indian ICBM may have soothing impact on the Western nations due its checkmate impact on Chinese military rise. Sooner, these nations will realize the negativity of the military buildup of India. The Agni-V test, certainly, assisted Indians to nullify the impression that India has a ‘phony-rivalry’ with China. In addition, it may cause insecurity for a few other nations.

Importantly, the Indian scientific bureaucracy has been working on the ICBM project since the launch of Integrated Guided Missile Development Program (IGMDP) under India's Defence Research and Development Organization in July 1983. Though during 1980s and 1990s, ballistic missile project’s dividends were not promising, both the Indian government and Indian scientific bureaucracy remained committed to ballistic missiles development. Consequently, in the recent years, they were able to accomplish a few objectives, especially with assistance of Israel. For instance, the Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO) created Agni-V by adding a third stage to Agni-III, a missile with a range of 3,500 km while carrying a 1.5 tonne payload that was first successfully tested five years ago.

It was reported that Agni I and II have a diameter of one metre and the first stage of the Agni-IV has a diameter of 1.2 metres. Whereas, both Agni-III and V have a diameter of 2 metres, making them capable of carrying several warheads known as Multiple Independently Targeted Re-entry Vehicles. Thus, Agni-III and V are very sophisticated nuclear capable delivery vehicles.

Missile Range-km Payload-kg

Agni-1-solid-one stage-service 700 1000

Agni-11-solid-two stage 2000 1000

Agni-III-solid-two stage 3500 1500 (1.5 tonne)

Agni-IV-solid-two stage 3000 700

Agni-V-solid-three stage 5000 1.1.tonne

The successful test of Agni-V enabled New Delhi to strike Beijing and Shanghai, across the whole Asia, 70 percent of Europe, and Eastern Africa. Avinash Chander, Chief Controller of missiles and strategic systems DRDO, opined after the Agni-V test that: “This is the first time India will have a true deterrence. We had a good deterrence with Agni-III and an upgrade with Agni-IV. But Agni-V gives you a total quantum jump in that capability.” Dr. V. K. Saraswat, the DRDO Director General, dubbed the Agni-V as a “game-changer”. Indeed, it could be a game changer not only in Southern Asia, but also in other parts of the world.

The Indian scientific elite have been projecting Agni-V as a great success, but the Chinese response is very calculated and unruffled. Many security observers are not even ready to accept Agni-V as an Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile. It is because, the accepted classification of ballistic missiles, an ICBM must have a minimum range of at least 5500 km (even though the Chinese metric puts the figure at 8000 km.

The following table highlights the vulnerabilities of many cities located in different parts of the world.

Central India (Bhopal Corp)

Agni- II China (Lop Nur, Tibet etc), Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Iran – Pakistan Border area, Thailand, Northern Afghanistan.

Agni-III/IV Beijing, Singapore, Mongolia, Southern Russia, Kazakhstan, Southern Parts of Georgia, Armenia, Border area of Iran-Turkey, Baghdad, Riyadh, South Yemen, Malaysia.

Agni- V Northern Korea, South Korea, the Philippines, Indonesia, Moscow, Kiev, Ankara, Cyprus, Cairo, Addis Abba

d. South India (Madurai or Trivandrum)*

Agni-II Dhaka, Katmandu, Karachi, Medan, Bangkok, Rangoon.

Agni-III/IV South West China, South Kazakhstan, Tehran, Kuwait, Southern-Eastern part parts of Saudi Arabia, South Yemen, Mogadishu, Jakarta, Borneo (Pontianak), Southern China Sea.

Agni-IV Indonesia, Manila, Quezon City, Shanghai, Beijing, Southern Russia, Russian Central Asian Border areas, some parts of Turkey, Damascus, Jordan, South Egypt (on the Red Sea), Southern Sudan, Kenya, Western Australia, Flores Sea, Taipei, Ningbo, Palau, Ujung, Pandog, Zhangiang.

e. Indian Far Eastern Command

(Andaman Islands)

AgniII Chengdu (China), South China Sea, Patembang.

Agni-III/IV Quetta, Kabul, Dushanbe, Beijing, Shanghai, Ulan Bator (Mongolia), Davo, Flores Sea.

Agni-V Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Tehran, Krasnovodsk, Guryev (Kazakhstan), Southern parts of Russia, Sea of Japan, Japan (Kanazawa), Oska, Nagoya, Western Australian parts.

Indian Far Eastern Command (Nicobar Islands) Agni-II Malaysia, Bandung.

Agni-III/ IV Karachi, Central Pakistan, Islamabad, Beijing, Shanghai, Taipei, Indiamen

Agni-V

Doha (Qatar), Abu Dhabi, Salalah, UAE, Southern Iran, Ashkabad, Russian Border areas with Central Asia, Western Australia, Mongolia, China, Harbin, North Korea, Seoul, Kobe, Japan.

India has taken a lead in developing, testing, producing and deploying ballistic missiles in South Asia. The developed world assisted India instead of discouraging it. India’s Agni-V test, certainly, compels many nations to revisit their military doctrines and advance their military postures.


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