Opinion
 
Understanding the Afghan puzzle
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April 27, 2012
War on terror seems to have reached no conclusion, as the recent attacks testify to the ‘strong presence and tactful access and capability of Taliban to target the well-guarded sensitive installations’ in four different provinces of Afghanistan.

These attacks have raised concerns about the post-US withdrawal scenario in this war-plagued country. The brazen Afghan Spring Offensive has shattered the seven-month lull exposing serious lapses in the security and intelligence apparatus. It has also questioned the response-capacity of Afghan forces as insurgents kept these places hostage for 18 hours.

This failure of US-Nato also stumps the Taliban foothold with incapacity of ANSF to replace the foreign troops. It has questioned the rationale behind the speedy withdrawal of US-Nato forces and handing over responsibilities to Afghan National Army. It also generated a heated debate to give a fresh rethink on the US power transition plans (from combat to train) which was already criticized for its hastily done and vagueness as no consensual framework for its applicability and procedural structures to link US and its allies in post-withdrawal region and nature of relationships was defined. The West must either respect its domestic audience wanting immediate withdrawal of troops and end to the war, or eliminate the threat which could be more lethal in future if left unaddressed.

A cursory look shows even after eleven years continuous hunt for culprits, spending more than $450 billion dollar and raising the causality scale high on both sides, the US and its allies are still unable to ensure peace and stability in Afghanistan by rooting out militants and al-Qaeda rather its spillover effect in border areas have wreaked havoc on Pakistan and expanded the war across the border. Year 2012 is proving to be tough for the US and its allies since its beginning. Desecration of Quran, killing of 17 Afghans by a US soldier, urinating on Afghan dead bodies and now Taliban attacks have won criticism to the Obama administration.

Here are few questions which may clarify the picture and impart a sense.

Is the ANSF capable of replacing the foreign troops and countering any campaign from Taliban?

US-Nato must consider the idea of power transition which looks bleak, ineffective and of non-pragmatic approach amid an inept and corrupt Karzai government. Will it work here where the Taliban are more powerful, intact and organized than Iraqis? Will the ANSF be capable enough to take responsibility of state security alone? An enormous and continued aid is required to train Afghan National Security Force and build its structures along weaponry which is not possible for looming economies of the US and its allies to keep generating flow of billions amid the already devised drastic cuts in military aid to Afghanistan.

Afghanistan has developed nothing except war economy. Also, officially it has pronounced in the Bonn Conference that it needs money flow and ISAF assistance for major combats. The general impression is that the major chunk of ANSF may join the Taliban after training or in the post-withdrawal scenario. Furthermore, the recent brazen attacks have shown loopholes and capability of ANSF and grim picture in the post-US Afghanistan. Also we find no consensus among the allies about the framework and standards of security and development of ANSF and the capabilities of Afghan government.

Is it the domestic pressure of looming economy or presidential campaign pressing the US hard to pull out its troops from this quagmire?

This war is getting longer than the Vietnam War and costing not only the US economy, but also of its allies. Obama is facing flake for violating pledges and failed plans as Surge Strategy failed badly to suppress the insurgents rather it brought more to their loop, increasing debt and unemployment at home may cause his Presidential campaign. The recent ABC polls found an enormous proportion of 69% Americans want the war end also Financial Times reported a poll which says 54% British demands immediate withdrawal. This is the picture at home which may better response at continuation of war in Afghanistan or not.

Are the Taliban proved so resilient to be defeated and curbed with ‘better tactics and drug trafficking’ to continue their struggle?

This is an asymmetrical warfare where the Taliban have a genuine concern of survival irrespective of causalities and destruction except sole objective to get rid of foreign troops. They stuck to this objective and kept on bleeding the US-Nato forces through generating the funds from extending the guarantees to drug-trafficking, establishing their foothold through human intelligence, avoiding cellular and electronic devices. Rhetoric is usually backfires if not meets the results especially in asymmetrical warfare and Taliban proved their credibility while undermining the potential capabilities and credibility of US-Nato to ensure peace through coordinated deadly assaults. It might have helped the Taliban by inept Karzai regime with infamous corruption stories along incapable in delivering to public. A general impression about these forces as occupiers could not be eliminated which further helps Taliban in finding new recruitments and human intelligence also sanctuaries. Taliban of today are much better than the past ones and better trained, experienced as grown up amid the wars, and pragmatic as well to commit any suicidal mistakes yet.


Will it be different today if Pashtuns were given due proportionate in politics and power structure in Afghanistan?

Taliban’s core majority is Pashtuns kept out of power loop and not given due share. They have not been in crafting the Afghan constitution. If they had been adjusted, most probably today's picture would have been different. Here comes a question if they are invited today, will they accept this offer which has lost significance after watershed in shape of these attacks. But this ongoing war and policies pursued by the US and its allies has deepened divisions in Afghan social fabric. Whatever happens, in post-US Afghanistan, there will be a civil war among the domestic stake-holders to gain power. No matter who proceed to throne, but would jeopardy the regional stability as regional actors would come to fill this power vacuum and guard their vested interests. They would surely come to strengthen their factions and hence again this may fall in chaos and shadows again. So a pragmatic solution to this puzzle is to invite all the intra-afghan stakeholders to renegotiate and seek solution which apparently looks nowhere because a mature and proven-established insurgency may not agree now on to share power cake which they have been denied for eleven years.

If the US kept aligned with Pakistan and not wooing India over Pakistan which latter felt ‘ditched and bypassed’ could Afghan peace be achieved?

The Taliban attacks also triggered the US-Pakistan relations who are odd bed fellows. The US has sidelined Pakistan. Whatever happens in Afghanistan, it puts the blame on Haqqani Network and Pakistan. It is evident from the past engagements that the US and Pakistan are tactical partners with divergent objectives and overlapping strategic priorities. For US, India is a bigger actor, come what may, to counter China in Asia, ignoring the fact of long acrimony of Indo-Pak. It woos India for Nuclear Energy and refuses the same to Pakistan at the same time. Another concern is of drones which is hampering US-Pakistan ties and affecting the War against Terror. The only solution to Afghan puzzle is ‘political settlement’ which apparently looks impossible ignoring the role of Pakistan. The US must be less placatory towards India for the stability in Afghanistan and bringing Pakistan back to the loop and avoiding the ‘red lines’ which already jeopardized the relations between them. One has truly said, devil lies in the details so avoid generating new concepts to confuse more rather solving the puzzle you already have.

Concluding, the given puzzle with its contours demands an adroit and pragmatic strategy to deal with this rather blaming each other. Pakistan, US and Afghanistan have to sit together to draw a consensual line of action if three musketeers want a ‘fair show’ and avoid any future threat which are hovering in terms of insurgents’ resurgence to topple peace.

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