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Counter-productive Drone strikes
February 11, 2011
About 83% drone strikes were carried out in North Waziristan Agency (NWA). Currently Pakistan army is in peace deal with the tribal elders of NWA. These drone strikes would seriously hamper Pakistan army’s efforts in war against militants in other tribal agencies. Pakistan cannot afford to open another front; strategically it is not in favor of Pakistan army to engage Taliban in NWA. But frequent attacks on these areas would provoke people in NWA to revolt against Pakistan army and the government. Innocent civilian casualties will fuel more extremism and terrorism in Pakistan. These drone strikes have provoked an unending war in tribal areas.
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Drone attacks have seriously challenged the sovereignty of Pakistan. Whether with the consent of Pakistan government or not, these drone attacks have been counterproductive in the war against terrorism and extremism. In fact these drone attacks have increased the militancy and anti-American sentiments among the people of Pakistan. The reason behind failure of this tactic is the high number of civilian casualties. More than 222 drone strikes have taken place in FATA from 2004-2011, in which more than 2,500 Pakistanis lost their lives. It is estimated that drone strikes have killed almost 70 high profile suspected militants and almost 2,330 innocent civilians.
About 83% drone strikes were carried out in North Waziristan Agency (NWA). Currently Pakistan army is in peace deal with the tribal elders of NWA. These drone strikes would seriously hamper Pakistan army’s efforts in war against militants in other tribal agencies. Pakistan cannot afford to open another front; strategically it is not in favor of Pakistan army to engage Taliban in NWA. But frequent attacks on these areas would provoke people in NWA to revolt against Pakistan army and the government. Innocent civilian casualties will fuel more extremism and terrorism in Pakistan. These drone strikes have provoked an unending war in tribal areas.
In Pushtunwali code of conduct, “Badal” (Revenge) is closely related to the notion of honor. “Badal” (Revenge) is the most important, dominant and greatest of all Pushtun traits. The urge to take revenge is infused in the very blood of a Pathan. Recently, almost 2,000 people in the North Waziristan agency demonstrated against the US drone strikes. Now people of tribal areas have started resenting US drone strikes more forcefully. According to the latest survey by the New America Foundation and Terror Free Tomorrow, more than three-quarters of FATA residents oppose American drone strikes. Nine out of every ten people in FATA oppose the US military and drone campaign to pursue al-Qaeda and Taliban in their region.
According to another survey report by Regional Institute of Policy Research and Training, 67% people of Swat believe that drone strikes have caused anger among the people and fueled extremism and terrorism. A survey by Pew Research Centre in Washington on July 30, 2010, stated that two-thirds of Pakistanis oppose the US-led war in Afghanistan and roughly six in 10 think the US is an enemy. All these surveys clearly show that drone attacks are counterproductive as far as war on terror is concerned. People of Pakistan strongly resent US drone strikes in FATA. America should let the Pakistani forces tackle militancy and terrorism in tribal areas. Pakistan Army is capable enough to tackle such situations. The recent successful military operations are evident of Pakistan army’s capabilities. Drone attacks would never bear any fruitful results in future; in fact, they are provoking extremism and militancy in this region.
According to Mr. David Kilcullen, an expert on counterinsurgency and terrorism: “I realize that they (Drone attacks) do damage to the Al Qaeda leadership, but it was not enough to justify the program. Since 2006, we’ve killed 14 senior Al Qaeda leaders using drone strikes; in the same time period, we’ve killed 700 Pakistani civilians in the same area. The drone strikes are highly unpopular. They are deeply aggravating to the population. And they’ve given rise to a feeling of anger that coalesce the population around the extremists and leads to spikes of extremism. ... The current path that we are on is leading US to the loss of Pakistani government’s control over its own population”.
Use of force can never resolve the problem in Tribal Areas of Pakistan; Pakistan has to devise a comprehensive policy to root out militancy from FATA. Moreover, the expansion of drone strikes would shatter Pakistan’s national consensus against militancy. This would endanger Pakistan Army’s operation in other volatile agencies. Militants may cash these strikes and provoke people of tribal areas to join them against Pakistan army and government.
Another important factor of civilian casualties is the technological imprecision of US drones, which has resulted in the rise of civilian casualties in tribal areas. According to Rich Zimmerman, CEO of Intelligent Integration Systems, the targeting system is inaccurate by as much as 40 feet. This also suggests that the unmanned planes’ weapons aren’t as accurate as the agency claims. Such an inaccuracy has seriously resulted in higher number of civilian casualties in Pakistani tribal areas, provoking these people against the United States, Pakistan government and the Army.
A UN report says that “Drone strikes are against International Humanitarian law,” and the CIA operatives could be charged with war crimes for their participation in drone strikes. It is imperative for Pakistan and the United States to devise a comprehensive strategy based on mutual respect and coordination to root out militancy and extremism from Pakistani tribal areas. The United States must respect sovereignty of Pakistan and it must put hold on the unprovoked use of force policy. People of the tribal areas want peace; they don’t want Taliban like rule in the area. America has to support Pakistan with weapon, equipment and funds to carry out operations in its own way against militants in FATA.
Pakistan has to improve its human intelligence in these areas and it must get the support of the locals and pro-government tribes to eliminate the threat of extremism and terrorism. Pakistan government must try to avoid civilian casualties. Only then menace of terrorism can be eliminated from Pakistan. In addition to that there is a requirement that given the huge stake in the war against terror and the counter-insurgency efforts, sufficient public policy space is created so that counter terrorism strategy can be employed according to domestic aspirations and opinion rather than in strong opposition. United States of America has to reconsider this policy because it would have terrible implications for the US and Pakistan in future.
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