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EGYPT UNDER ISLAMISTS?
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Visits
119
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Visits
119
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Visits
119
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February 10, 2012
The final tally of the Egyptian elections has clearly placed the Islamists at the cutting edge against their secular and liberal rivals. Out of 498 elected seats the Islamists have won 356 combined which is more than the two third parliamentary seats. Out of the final tally Freedom and Justice Party, the political wing of Muslim Brotherhood has grabbed 235 seats where Al-Nur Party consisting of Salafists has won 121. The world was focused on the Muslim Brotherhood but the performance of Al-Nur must have come as a surprise or shock depending the nature of the observers. Al-Nur is more right wing or extreme version of political Islam which is the talk of the town of the day. The Party was not well-placed to win that number of seats immediately after Mubarak’s ouster but managed to stand up to be counted as a force to reckon in the next political dispensation of Egypt. Now the tussle is on between these two Islamist parties to manage the coalition government. Muslim Brotherhood can form the government on its own as it holds high cards as an outcome of electoral victory. But in order to bring Egypt under its writ and rule it has to strike a coalition with the fellow Islamist Party.
The choice before the Brotherhood is to rule Egypt or bring about its transformation. It is surely to take the second path because it is in an ideal position to translate its vision into reality. The decisive encounter would be with the military which is all-set to ensure its presence in the next ruling dispensation. The military tried to highjack the post-Mubarak Egypt but was constrained because of popular pressure which refused to dwindle. Things took such a turn that there began to be a mention of second revolution in Egypt in November last year people once again took to Tahrir Square, the epicenter of anti-Mubarak protest to demand the total ouster of the military from power. The military realized the potency of this raging popular protest and decided to oversee the free and fair electoral process to let the people taste the fruit of democracy. How ever military has been able to carve a slight niche for itself in the elected parliament by nominating ten members. The number of these military nominated parliamentarians is not significant but their role and status in the parliament may test the limits of both sides throwing some spanner in the way of Brotherhood dominated transition. Although the military can nominate only a few of its members in 598 member parliament, but its small presence can work as a substance whose little amount can change the taste of a recipe.
The issue at hand is that what would Muslim Brotherhood do to pacify the restless tempers at home which have high expectations from the Party and how would it react to the concerns of foreign powers which critically view its victory. Egypt is a large country with majority of the population living at margins, to fulfill the expectations of such people is going to be a Herculean task. Brotherhood mobilized the people against Mubarak but more difficult is to keep people patient unless things are delivered. It is easier to do the politics of opposition and anti-regime because of incumbency factor which continues for decades in authoritarian Middle Eastern Countries, but to deliver things while being in the saddle of governance is entirely different. Up till now Brotherhood was clamouring about the injustices and corruption of the Mubarak regime and the military of the country, but now it has to do good on its promises and commitments which fell on a fertile soil at the hustings. It was operating mainly at societal front by offering people social welfare services but now it has to deal with hard political realities of the day. Distributing meat and other edibles among people on festivals has helped the Party to build and consolidate its grass-root presence, but to sustain this people-friendly image and charitable organisation along with the political Party is going to be the litmus test of its ability to translate rhetoric into reality.
Both Brotherhood and Al-Nur are negotiating hard to work out a coalition government and it would be seen that what compromises are going to emerge from both sides. Whatever the middle ground emerges, it has to be an arrangement where some form of Islamist rule would be agreed on. Tension with the US on the trial of 19 Americans on charges of incitement, blowing up of gas pipe line leading to Israel via Sinai and more than 70 deaths in football-related violence are the events which are going to pose an obstacle to the Islamists to take into account the agenda to set things right at home and establish a working a chemistry with other countries. Israel and the US are particularly concerned at the victory of the Islamists.
Either there would be attempts to assuage their apprehensions or they would be further aggravated if Islamists seek to keep restive population under control by keeping up the anti-West rhetoric. The ruling Military Council wants to ensure its influence on Mubarak’s trial and this is going to be a point of collision with the democratic set up led by the Brotherhood. Mubarak trial is still perceived to be not going in the right direction by the Islamists and they are sure to make their point once in power. The Islamists have won the field in elections but in order to sustain their stay in power they have to deal with high expectations at home and sharp concerns abroad, in between lies the tight-rope walking which would decide whether Egypt is able to reap the fruits of democracy under the Islamist political parties.
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