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The recurring gas crisis
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January 27, 2012
Pakistan is once again facing a major gas crisis as it faced during the last three years. Alas! This time the country has been hit by the severest natural gas crisis since its birth in 1947. The country lacks proper natural resources management, thanks to incompetent ruling parties that have not been able to improve infrastructure and production facilities even after 64 years of independence.

Natural gas, widely used for heating, cooking and fuelling of vehicles, has been on the decline since the beginning of winter. The gas shortage has brought to light the grim state of the country's economy and the inability of the hassled government caught up by the alleged memo scandal and the NRO verdict to provide even basic services to the people. The year 2012 began with violent protests, wheel-jam strike by transporters and gas station owners against the increase in price and shortage of gas. On the eve of New Year the government increased gas price by 13.98 to 207.10 percent for all categories of gas consumers, including households, which became effective from January 1. Major cities were virtually paralysed as people across the country demonstrated against gas shortages and price hike.

The gas tariff has been increased by 14 percent for domestic, commercial consumers and cement sector. For domestic sector, the gas tariff for consumers using up to 100 cubic meters has increased from 122.95 MMBTU to 132.46 MMBTU. Now consumers who consume 100 units would have to pay Rs63 extra and over consumption of 300 units, they would have to pay an extra Rs313.

Energy is an important prerequisite for the economic development of a country. On the one hand, it is used for industrial and agricultural purposes, on the other it is required for the domestic use. Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source. Pakistan’s largest energy source is natural gas, with demand and imports growing rapidly. Currently, natural gas meets 49 per cent of the country’s energy needs. Projections from the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources say the natural gas is facing depletion as demand soars from increased use and population growth.

The country is currently facing 1.8 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas shortfall per day, with forecasts estimating severe shortages in the future that could choke the economic growth for many years to come. Pakistan is likely to face a 3 billion bcf shortage in 2015 and a 6 billion bcf shortage by 2020, based on current resource estimates. To have a gas crisis in Pakistan is like having a shortage of ice cubes in Siberia or of sand in Saudi Arabia. It simply boggles the mind. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that over 51 trillion cubic feet of recoverable shale gas can be extracted in Pakistan. Even if the demand doubles from two trillion cubic feet a year, the estimated current gas reserves can last as long as 30 years or more.

Shale gas offers an alternative source for the energy-starved Pakistan. Rough estimates indicate the presence of at least 33 trillion cubic feet of unconventional gas reserves trapped in rocks. These unconventional gas reserves are in addition to the remaining conventional proven gas reserves of over 30 trillion cubic feet. But like most news events in Pakistan, the current crisis has many explanations. The central mystery of Pakistan’s chronic shortages of gasoline and even electrical power – is actually quite easy to explain.

According to Petroleum Minister Dr Asim Hussain gas reserves of the country were reducing very quickly. “Pakistan is rich in gas and oil reserves but steps had not been taken by the past governments to explore new gas fields in the country,” he said.

Apprising the National Assembly about the gas situation, he said presently the country was facing 1.8 bcf gas shortages thanks to irrational policies of Musharraf government. The minister said CNG sector was the main reason behind the gas crisis as it was consuming a major chunk of the commodity. Besides, some elements are involved in gas theft. Musharraf government had issued licences for new CNG stations, ignoring the negative impact of their mushroom growth on domestic consumers and the industrial sector. It’s not that Pakistan is unaware of its problems or fails to plan for them. Dr Asim said the government will present a roadmap in the House in two months to overcome gas shortage.

The previous government had planned five major initiatives to meet the energy requirements. They included three gas import pipelines, Gwadar port as energy hub and LNG import. However, four of these measures, including the three import pipeline projects, show no signs of progress for various reasons while concentration on energy facilities in Gwadar would chiefly depend on security situation, besides oil and gas import pipelines. Given Pakistan's heavy dependence on natural gas for energy and as feedstock for industries such as fertilizer, fibre and plastics, it's important to pursue shale gas fields’ development. Unconventional gas usage in Pakistan could play the same role of ‘price cooler’ as it had in the US.


Another viable solution to the gas crisis is to start gas rationing. Instead of closing the CNG stations for 3-4 days, causing immense problems to the people, the government should issue gas-rationing stamps and coupons that people and transporters can use. The odd-even gas rationing that went by your license plate number could work. The last number on your license plate would determine when you could get gas. An odd number would mean you could get gas on odd numbered days only, an even number would entail you could get gas on even numbered days only.

Back in the 1930s when the US was experiencing gas crisis, much as we are today, the American government installed what was called a "govenor" on all vehicles. The "govenor" was to keep vehicles from travelling beyond a set speed limit, therefore rationing gas usage even further. This idea would never work in Pakistan as people would devise ways to tamper with the “governor” Mindless, selfish people are the reason we are having a gas crisis. Why can't anyone realise that gas-guzzling speeders are just making the gas crisis even worse? Many people believe this crisis is made up. They think the crisis is artificial in order to sell the costly LPG. Maybe they are right. But, we aren't going to make the politicians change anything. Who can we trust anymore? We can only trust ourselves.

As a nation, we need to wake up; we need to realise that we are going to stay in this situation until someone steps up to make a change. Each and everyone who reads this can be that someone. It can start with one person, one car, one thought, one idea, one plan. If we work together, if we spread the word, if we talk to our family, our friends, our neighbours, our co-workers, we can start to make a change.

Start by reducing gasoline consumption by at least five percent below its current level; insulate homes and all buildings instead of relying on gas/electric heaters; walk and use the vehicles only when necessary; citizens who insist on driving large, unnecessarily powerful cars must expect to pay more for that luxury.

The energy crisis has not yet overwhelmed us, but it will if we do not act quickly. It is a problem the government will not solve in the next few years and it is likely to get progressively worse through the rest of this century. We simply must balance our demand for energy with our rapidly shrinking resources. By acting now, we can control our future instead of letting the future control us.

How do you want to be remembered? Someone who made a difference or someone who walked away shaking their head because they thought they couldn't.

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