Opinion
 
Conference on Disarmament: Pakistan needs to stick to its guns
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January 27, 2012
The Conference on Disarmament, the world’s sole multilateral forum for disarmament negotiations, held the first public plenary of its 2012 session on Tuesday, January 24, 2012, at the Palais des Nations in Geneva.

Pakistan would remain in the limelight during the first session of the Conference on Disarmaments 2012 due to its stance on the Fissile Material Cut off Treaty (FMCT) in particular, and its proactive participation in the Conference on Disarmament (CD) pursuits to accomplish its annual agenda in general.

Importantly, on September 15, 2011, the CD closed its 2011 session. The last year was a thirteenth consecutive year without substantive work. Many analysts had mistakenly concluded that Pakistan was the only state, which had thwarted CD’s 2011 agenda. But they failed to acknowledge that Pakistan straightforwardly upholds affirmative stance on ‘Global Nuclear Disarmament’, ‘Negative Security Assurances’, and ‘Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS)’.

PAROS is very important to prevent the Outer Space from weaponization. Notably, world is gradually inching towards fourth medium of warfare, i.e. Space Warfare. United States, Israel and India had vetoed PAROS in 2005 and these nations have been developing missile defense systems. The development of missile defense system will necessitate the revision of the concept of nuclear deterrence, which was the edifice of deterrence stability between the nuclear capable adversaries. These developments certainly thwart the global and regional comprehensive arms control and disarmament initiatives at the CD.

Pakistan did not oppose FMCT in totality, but it is only insisting to broaden its scope, which must include disarmament and regional security architectures. It is an established fact that any treaty which fails to address the security concerns of the state(s), is not acceptable to the nation(s) concerned. Similarly, anything which undermines Pakistan’s sovereign defense, should be simply rejected.

Islamabad’s stance on the FMCT has not been acceptable to various Western nations, including the United States. They have been pressurizing Pakistan to enter into the negotiations on the Treaty draft formation process instead of obstructing it. Ironically, they do not take into account Pakistan’s security problems due to India’s military buildup.

The United States and its likeminded states have been encouraging India to modernize its military potential to check the Chinese power in Asia without comprehending the repercussions of their policies. They are least sensitive to the fact that India’s drive towards Great Power multiplies Pakistan’s military challenges and increases its reliance on its nuclear weapons capability.


Pakistan’s strategic challenges due to its chronic unsettled disputes with India and its limited resources to address the conventional asymmetry oblige it to not agree to work on an FMCT based on the Shannon mandate. It is because the Shannon mandate only encourages nations to negotiate an arms control treaty, which is not in the strategic interest of Pakistan.

Importantly, the Pakistani armed forces will only be capable of deterring and defeating aggression launched by our eastern adversary, if they are armed effectively. Therefore, Pakistanis need to be cautious about the military needs of the country, and also avoid any international trap, which may cap country’s indigenous nuclear weapon program.

The credible deterrence results from both the capabilities to deny an aggressor the prospect of achieving his objectives and from the complementary capability to impose unacceptable costs on the aggressor. Thus, for credible capability to deny aggression and if deterrence fails to inflict unacceptable damage on the adversary, Pakistan needs to invest in both strategic and tactical nuclear weapons.

The strategic and tactical nuclear weapons require nuclear fissile material. The demand for the fissile material increases with the shift at the technical level of the adversary’s strategy coupled with its persistent denial of bilateral nuclear restrain regime proposal or a comprehensive arms control treaty. The absence of an arms control treaty between India and Pakistan limits latter’s options, and, thereby, it is not possible for it to unilaterally abandon its military modernization, especially nuclear arsenal upgradation, qualitatively and quantitatively.

To conclude, the strategic challenges should be addressed with realistic strategic calculations rather than idealist or pacifist notions of nuclear abolitionists or non-proliferationists. Pakistan’s stance on the FMCT and other items of the CD agenda should only take into account or serve the strategic interest of the country rather than intended to please any Great Power or expose any other state at the conference on Disarmament.

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