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Moving towards new confrontations
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Visits 41
    
January 20, 2012
Something bigger is going to happen in the Gulf, as both the US and Iran are again locked in a fierce diplomatic stand-off that has the potential of not only jolting regional stability, but also global economy. If Iran chokes off oil traffic in the Strait of Hormuz or the world stops importing Iranian oil on US pressure, both ways can trigger the ongoing heightened tension towards a war-like situation. Apparently, it looks both are not away from war; ship collusions or aircraft intrusions also can’t be ruled out.

The Strait of Hormuz is strategically important as 40% of the world oil passes through it. The ‘blockade’ of this important sea route can shot up flames to skies which Iran is doing at its best. China, the biggest Iranian oil importer, and European Union are the crucial pillars to decide the future cartography of events. If they both denounce Iran and join the US in bringing pressure to bear upon Tehran, then it will definitely hurt Iran’s strategic position and afford the US an opportunity to encircle it.

The US is mounting pressure on Iran as it defies its influence and is ‘perceived’ as threat to Israel. As for as security of Israel concerns, we find a famous Israeli military historian-strategist Martin van Creveled once said: “We are in no danger at all of having an Iranian nuclear weapon dropped on us….thanks to the Iranian threat, we are getting weapons from the US and Germany.” Here we see some different tones within America on Iranian nuclear capability as US General Abizaid once said: “The world can tolerate a nuclear Iran which like other countries doesn’t wish to commit suicide.” So this may be absurd that Nuclear Iran can be a ‘bigger threat’ to US strategic interests in the region as much hyped by the war-mongers.

Why the US feels threatened from Iran even if it builds a nuclear bomb for its security or enriches uranium for its energy needs? Why the US is desperate to fail the Iranian bomb especially when its economy is going downhill and it is seeking a safe exit from the Afghan puzzle? Also, we find the war mongers distorting the Iranian statements and actions to their own ends like the Iranian offer to dismantle Taliban after 9/11 and efforts to settle Palestinian peace with Israel, its relations with Hezbullah etc.

The US is pursuing a coercive diplomacy by blocking Iranian crude oil or damaging its oil revenues on the pretext that it is developing a nuclear bomb. Neglecting Beijing, Saigon and Tokyo by imposing economic sanctions on Iran and aligning allies onboard, the US is facing a matching response and resistance from Iran, especially from its clerical establishment. Whenever tension heightens, some relative events also collaborate to enhance its grave intensity such as the killing of Iranian nuclear scientist on US pressure which is the fourth killing since 2010. The role of UN is also discriminatory as even after receiving a letter, there is no substantial response from the world body nor any human rights organization raised voice against its double standard.

Such actions may be part of the US design to provoke Iran, especially its fiery clerical establishment, to retaliate against the US saber-rattling that may lead to an all-out war. Iran firmly believes the West is not ready to see Muslim world prosper in technology. The American efforts to single out Iran are obvious, as South Korea and India too have decreased imports from Iran following the US economic sanctions. The EU embargo halted for six weeks more to avoid any ‘economic shocks’ in the Strait of Hormuz. Greece, Spain and Italy are also hindering the UK push for some blanket ban as it could harm the already crisis-ridden economy of Europe. China has not so far given any assurances to the US treasury secretary who dashed last week to Beijing. The Chinese premier also dashed to Riyadh to find some ‘alternative’ ways for its energy needs. The European Union is all set to put embargos on Iranian oil but now there are reports that it has been halted for six weeks. This might be another chance for Iran to stop its ‘nuclear enrichment’ for a possible bomb.


Here neo-cons have also set the war tunes as Ron Paul’s inimitable words, “lie their way into invading Iraq” set for Bush in 2003 may set for Obama to secure the upcoming 2012 presidential elections. One finds no WMDs. Whenever elections come in America, rhetoric comes to top triggering uneasy tensions with other states with tactfully measured political statements to secure the domestic audience. Surely, Obama is wise enough to not let the Republican ‘guards’ inch their way towards presidency. We cannot ward off the ‘efforts’ of Israeli lobby against Iran or leading US towards another ‘failed adventurism’ when more than 70% Jewish vote goes for Obama and their election financing also does matter. The US pro-Israel policies may give an impression that the US affairs are run in Tel Aviv.

Not only the US and Israel, the Arab sheikhdoms, the regional rivals of Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE also fear the Iranian nuclear programme believing that it may trigger an arms race in the region which may jeopardize regional stability, security and economy.

Would it be easy for Iran to keep itself away from any provocation or it would go along the wind to match the US or Israeli ‘response’ with force? What are options for Iran in hand in this extreme ‘hostile environment’? What a state should do when it is surrounded by the adversaries and three of its borders have US fleets which are viewed as the “guards of Israel”. The Iranians are in no mood to believe the US, as it toppled the elected Mussadq government, supporting Saddam to invade their homeland and now playing some coercive measures to isolate it internationally through economic sanctions. Iran is witnessing cyber-attacks, air violations though drones and explosions at its installations which are adding fuel to fire.

We here also find some tactful moves by the Iranian president to align the Latin solidarity aimed at snubbing the coercive diplomacy of US and Tel Aviv’s wish to go along the US-imposed trade sanctions on Iran.

The alleged Iranian nuclear program is an eye-sour for the US desperate to strangulate it financially by isolating it from economic zones. Imagine the scenario if 17 bpd oil does not reach to the outside world after the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz? Is the US desperate to eliminate the Iranian nuclear installations to secure the existence of Israel?

China is the biggest Iranian oil importer which has not yet shown any inclination or issued a public statement to cut short its imports. The Chinese premier discussed it in Saudia, the arch rival of Iran, to seek some alternative oil routes to meet its energy needs. If it is true, then Iran surely would be worried about its encircling. It merits a mention here that Japan has refused to decrease oil imports on US pressure.

Russia has opposed oil sanctions and emphasized the need for finding a viable solution to the problem rather than adopting the path of confrontation. It is also of the same view as of Turkey to ask for new ‘Iran SIX’ talks to settle this issue. The Russian role along with Turkey and China can stop the ongoing confrontation from leading to ‘deadly consequences’. Turkey, a crucial Iranian neighbor and emerging influential Muslim economy, has decided not to stop its voluminous trade with Iran and its growing energy partnership. Pakistan too will continue its trade and is desperate to see the gas pipeline project functional.

Concluding the debate, the rhetoric on both sides needs to be toned down through multilateral talks or finding some ‘consensual’ way to save the region from a new ‘strategic jingoism’.


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