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IRAN-US: BRINKMANSHIP AND BRAVADO
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322
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Visits
322
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Visits
322
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January 13, 2012
What was being discussed as an option for Iran to retaliate the US saber-rattling or the outcome of the stalemate between Iran and the US has sprung up as a tangible threat leading to aggressive posturing in the Persian Gulf. Iran’s threat to choke the global oil traffic through the Gulf of Hormuz shot up the flames to the skies. Another salvo of sanctions fuelled and fired by the US has provoked Iran into making good on its threat to up the ante on its sworn opponent. Oil weapon that is much discussed and least used has once again been brandished underscoring Iran’s strength and the West’s vulnerability. In response the US also showed stiff stand by warning to counter any such move by force. The subsequent incident giving a humanitarian spin to strategic jingoism softened the tempers when the US marines rescued the Iranian sailors from pirates. But this humanitarian gesture has not toned down the rhetoric and cooled the tempers from both sides and hands on the trigger still stand with a lot of hot talk in background. The rationale behind Iranians’ threat to set alight the Persian Gulf waters is quite evident: Iran is the fourth largest oil producer and some 40 percent of world oil traffics through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran knows well that in these times of economic crunch all over the world unleashed by the US faltering economy the closure of Hormuz would send shockwaves all around. The US has taken up the gauntlet thrown by Iran trying to prove that it would not be blackmailed by the threat which in turn was met with same degree of aggression from the latter.
The key question is that why the US feels tempted or compelled to ratchet up pressure on Iran? Why has Iran ventured to use the Gulf of Hormuz option. President Obama’s much of actions and statements at this juncture of time would be made in line with the political calculations aimed at securing another term in the Whitehouse. The election year in the US some times results in unnecessary tension with other countries to appease certain lobbies and pressure groups at home. Obama knows his underbelly where the Republicans can harm him; and that is national security. He does not appear to be giving an easy ground to his opponents who can tar him with the brush of national security risk. The foot-dragging on START III with Russia last year from the Republicans made him look giving too many concessions. Withdrawal from Afghanistan is still an issue with some of the Republicans who can raise the heat on this issue anytime. Jewish lobby is another consideration to tip the balance in favour or against Obama. In 2008 presidential elections 78 percent Jewish votes went to Obama demonstrating his dependence on the Jewish vote. Israel’s influence on the US policy towards the Middle East and more so towards Iran is now an axiomatic truth. It is a default position of the US to take sides with Israel prompting an analyst to term the US as a branch of Israeli government operating in Tel Aviv. Iran is seen as creeping to build its nuclear fireball under the din and noise of diplomatic arm-twisting and sanctions. It has been proved in the cases of India, Pakistan and North Korea that sanctions can increase the cost of going nuclear and slow the quest and manufacture of nukes but can not prevent their acquisition. The holocaust denier Ahmadinejad who off and on sends the chill down the spine in Tel Aviv by calling for the total annihilation of Israel is the most fearful entity with nukes in the state’s arsenal. Nuclear weapons with pathological hatred for the enemy spurred on by religious radicalism is a nightmarish scenario, and this is what Israel fears most. The rightist regimes in Israel possessing basement bombs are equally alarming but unqualified support from the US and selective rays of the spotlight of the Western Media the country does not raise eye-brows anywhere where things matter.
Iran does not take the US as seriously as it used to because of its unaccomplished goals in Afghanistan and half-accomplished objectives in Iraq. The military failures in Iraq and Afghanistan have dented the credibility of the sole superpower of the world and like an injured lion it has to rub its wounds if attacked by flying birds and crawling insects. Alkaeda, Haqqani Network and Mehdi Militia have brought the giant on its knees and Iran is a fully functional state with sound operational military-so the US has to take leave of her senses before embarking on any foolhardy adventure against Iran. The leadership in Iran knows the compulsions and weaknesses of their opponent and they are behaving accordingly. The downing of the US drone which was sent in to test the scientific genius of the Mullahs must have brought the point home to the US war-mongers that Iran is bigger than what the mouth can chew and stomach can digest. On other hand in the wake of the Arab Spring Iran must be feeling emboldened as along with democratic upsurge anti-US ranks are also swelling. Raising the war clouds on Iran in this environment may well end up inundating the US. All these calculations make the US look like an unrestraint mad elephant committed to its own destruction whereas Iran realizing the limitations of its adversaries modulates the tone and tenor of its response so as to undertake a measured brinkmanship. At the end of the day both countries would take a detour to avert this current bout of tension initiating some other crisis as there is no visible prospect of improvement in bilateral relations.
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