Opinion
 
Iran amidst crisis
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December 09, 2011
Iran’s endeavor to accomplish mastery in the nuclear fuel cycle has not only disturbed the United States, Israel and European powers, but it has also created an anxiety in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The Arab nations have expressed their serious concerns over the Iranian nuclear program and its standoff with the Western powers. They believe that Tehran’s goal is not to acquire capability to generate indigenous nuclear-fuel for peaceful purpose, but it is for nuclear weapons.

Importantly, the recent debate on Iran’s nuclear program started after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released classified information about the Tehran’s work on the nuclear device design. On November 8, 2011, the IAEA reported that Iran had moved far beyond the blackboard to create computer models of nuclear explosions in 2008 and 2009, and conducted experiments on nuclear triggers. The announcement that Iran conducted experiments on nuclear trigger alarmed the concerned states, especially its Arab neighbors. Consequently, on November 22, 2011, the United States and other major Western powers took significant steps to cut Iran off from the international financial system, announcing coordinated sanctions aimed at its central bank and commercial banks. These counter measures may be proven unproductive and thereby having insignificant impact on Iran’s nuclear program modernization.

The Iranian ruling elite always deny the judgment of the international community about the objective and nature of its nuclear program. The Iranian high-ups always claim that they are only interested in the peaceful use of nuclear technology, which is their legitimate right being a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Being a party to the NPT, Iran built its nuclear infrastructure with the assistance of nuclear supplier states. That is why Russian Federation assisted Iran to build its nuclear plant at Busher.

The NPT divided its member states into two categories, i.e. Nuclear Weapon States and Non-Nuclear Weapon States. The former are those states, which conducted nuclear explosions prior to January 1, 1967. According to this definition, Iran is a non- nuclear-weapon-state. Therefore, it cannot use nuclear technology for military purposes. In addition it is mandatory that Tehran should keep all its nuclear facilities under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards. It is the responsibility of the IAEA to monitor the Iranians nuclear program continuously and adopt effective measures to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. Tehran can get rid of IAEA safeguards or monitoring by invoking the withdrawal clause of the NPT and renouncing its membership to the Treaty.

The perception that Iran has been acquiring nuclear weapon is very much disturbing for its Arab neighbors, particularly Saudi Arab and Egypt. Indeed, Iran’s nuclear program having military dimension would jeopardize the regional balance of power. The deterioration of existing balance of power would unleash the arms race in the region. Saudi Arab and United Arab Emirate have already been spending a colossal amount of money on the conventional weapons. The security observers believe that Iran’s nuclearization would have domino effect on the entire region. There are ample chances that a few Arab states leave the NPT and develop nuclear weapons to balance Iran.

The differences between Iran and Western countries have been increasing. Recently, the United Kingdom Embassy in Tehran was stormed by Iranian protestors due to London’s accusation that Tehran was developing nuclear weapons. The rowdy mob attack on the British Embassy multiplied the anger of the Western nations. On November 30, 2011, British Foreign Secretary William Hague stated in the parliament: “If any country makes it impossible for us to operate on their soil, they cannot expect to have a functioning embassy here.” Subsequently, Britain had closed the Iranian embassy in London and asked all of its diplomats to leave the country immediately on December 2, 2011.

In the recent high-profile Gulf Forum 2011 (The Gulf and the Globe) jointly organized by the Institute of Diplomatic Studies of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Saudi Arab and Gulf Research Center of the UAE at Riyadh from December 3-5, 2011, the Arab leaders had expressed their serious concerns over the Iran's hostility toward the West. They also claimed that Iran’s nuclear obsession would destabilize the region. The leaders of GCC countries at the forum demanded that Iran should refrain from developing nuclear weapons.

To conclude, Tehran’s increasing differences with the Western powers and Gulf Cooperation Council countries would have severe repercussions for the regional stability. It would further widen the gap between Iran and GCC countries and also justify extra regional powers to intervene in the region.


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