Economy
 
Food crisis far from over, WB tells world governments
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November 18, 2011
The World Bank has warned that the global food prices will remain high and volatile, hitting the poorest countries hardest and adding to the strains facing the global economy. Developing countries might have now limited resources to protect vulnerable populations following the economic crisis and stimulus spending.

In the backdrop of WB warning the prices of food items are also increasing in Pakistan and the inflation rate has touched 11 percent level in the first four months of current fiscal year, alarming sign for the government and its policy makers.

CPI inflation has increased by 11 percent on year-on-year basis in October 2011 as compared to 10.5 percent in the previous month. On month-on-month basis, inflation surged by 1.4 percent in October 2011 as compared to 1 percent in the September 2011.

Word Bank noted that “the food crisis is far from over and the prices remain volatile and millions of people around the world are still suffering”. The global lender has called for action to tackle this growing international problem because millions of people around the world face a daily crisis of hunger and malnutrition.

According to the Federal Bureau of Statistics FBS core inflation measured by non-food non-energy CPI increased by 10.4 percent in October 2011 compared with 10.6 percent a month earlier.

Prices of essential food items such as vegetable ghee increased by 25.87 percent, gram whole 24.79 percent, fresh fruits 24.70 percent, cooking oil by 22.42 percent, milk products 21.94 percent, milk fresh 21.29 percent and rates of tomatoes jumped up by 21.12 percent between July to October 2011.

Increasing inflation has severely hit the poorest segment of the country and contributing to the increasing vulnerability and fall in real income of lower, middle and fixed income class. It has also led to the uncertainty about future scenario of the business environment and instability of the financial system.

The prices of essential commodities are being increased in the country without any justification and the government’s relevant agencies are fail to control the price hike. The governments are still unable to device any mechanism to check the prices of commodities in the country.


The higher prices has sharply reduced the purchasing power of commoners, the hardest hit segment of the society. On the other hand the unemployment rate is also showing rising trend which multiplies the suffering of poorest of the country. According to the official data the unemployment rate stands at 6 percent. The unemployment rate among male population is particularly on the rise as out of every hundred males 5.1 are unemployed. Apart from rising prices of commodities growing unemployment is also adding to the miseries of already suffering class which needs to be address on priority bases.

Volatility, According to the WB, which is higher in low income countries, is expected to persist in the medium term due to multiple global and domestic factors. Structural factors contributing to the volatility include rising populations and changing diets, increasingly intertwined relations between food and energy prices, and increasing production of biofuels.

On the other hand, a favorable outlook on supply and stocks is likely to relieve some of the pressure on global food prices. Latest forecasts show global wheat stocks reaching a 10-year high in 2011-12, global production of maize to rise by 4 percent from increased production in Argentina, Brazil, China, Russia, and Ukraine. Global rice output is also likely to get a boost in 2011-12 due to an expected bumper harvest in India following very favorable monsoon rains. While a troubled global economy could dampen demand and push food prices down, the effect on developing countries would be mixed-hurting food exporting countries and poor producers in rural areas, and benefiting food importers and consumers. The problem, Food Price Watch warns, is that developing countries might have now limited resources to protect vulnerable populations following the economic crisis and stimulus spending.In addition, fears associated with the global economy may affect medium to long-term investments in agricultural research and more productive agricultural techniques, especially amid persistent volatility.

Keeping in view the global scenario of food prices the government of Pakistan may take some steps to prevent its population, especially the poor, from external and internal price shocks in future.

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