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Islamabad-Moscow enmity yielding to amity
January 28, 2011
Central Asia is Russian Federation’s ‘strategic backyard’ and for Pakistan an ‘economic promising region’. Anything disturbing in this region would raise strategic concerns for Russia, and diminish Pakistan’s economic opportunities. Both states have great stakes in the region and thereby their bilateral cooperation would have political and economic dividends for both Islamabad and Moscow. In addition, there are numerous areas of common interest ranging from bilateral economic cooperation to multilateral arms control and disarmament.
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The changing parameters of international politics and security environment have been necessitating pragmatism in Islamabad and Moscow bilateral relations. The Cold War enmity has been gradually yielding to amity in the twenty-first century.
This new era of constructive bilateral relations between Islamabad and Moscow has been started with the President General Musharraf’s visit to Russia on the invitation of Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin from February 4 to 6, 2003. It was followed by Russian Prime Minister Mikhail E Fradkov visit to Pakistan from April 11 to 14, 2007. During these high-level visits both sides agreed to intensify mutually beneficial cooperation especially through close economic interaction and augmentation of their bilateral trade. Cooperation in such sectors as energy, metallurgy, telecommunications and several infrastructure development projects were identified as promising areas of cooperation.
Recently, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey A. Ryabkov visited Pakistan for a two-day bilateral counter-terrorism meeting. He arrived in Islamabad on January 24, 2011. During his stay he met government officials and also participated in the roundtable talk organized by the South Asian Strategic Stability Institute on Special Bilateral Talk on “strategic stability: Pak-Russian Collaboration & Prospects” on January 25, 2011. During the round-table talk the Russian Minister was very frank. He also gave an impression that Moscow is serious in cultivating workable bilateral relations with Islamabad. More precisely, the visit of Mr Ryabkov has soothing effect on Islamabad and Moscow bilateral relations.
Presently, Pakistan and Russian Federation’s primary objective is to combat the menace of Islamic militancy and destroy the nexus between transnational terrorist organizations. The transnational Islamic militant organizations have been undermining both states internal security. The link among the Al Qaeda, Afghan Taliban, Tehrik-i-Taliban, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and militants from the North Caucasus and other Muslim Russian regions has been very devastating and destabilizing for both Pakistan and Russian Federation.
Russia’s membership of the original Shanghai-5 underscored its desire to work closely with the regional states to combat terrorism. In this context, the Russians have been supporting Pakistan’s permanent member’s candidature to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Islamabad had also played an active role in assisting Russia to get an observer status at the OIC.
The stability in Afghanistan is in both states national interest. The political instability in Afghanistan negatively influences both states internal security and hinders their economic progress. They are not oppose to the US, NATO led ISAF forces role in Afghanistan’s peace restoration. Simultaneously, they understand that the long-term presence of Western forces (NATO Forces) in the peripheral region is neither conducive for Islamabad nor in the Moscow’s interest in the Central Asian States.
The unending protracted warfare in Afghanistan has been taxing both United States and NATO led ISAF forces severely. Realistically, the Western countries public has been fed up by the Afghanistan war. The Obama Administration’s Af-Pak strategy revealed that sooner Americans will leave Afghanistan. On March 27, 2009, President Obama announced that United States forces would start withdrawal from Afghanistan in July 2011. He reiterated his withdrawal plan in his Af-Pak recent review. On December 16, 2010, he stated that American troops start withdrawal in July 2011 and it would be completed until 2014. The NATO member states also announced in the November 2010 Lisbon Summit that their forces will leave Afghanistan in the following three years.
The withdrawal plan has three important components, i.e. reconciliatory talks with Taliban, raising 30000 policy and paramilitary Afghan forces and undeniable role of Pakistan in the future Afghanistan settlement. The significance of Pakistan in the Afghanistan affairs makes it very attractive for the Russians. Traditionally, Russians had better understanding with the Northern Alliance and animosity with Taliban. The prevailing situation in Afghanistan compelled Russians to establish better relations with Afghan Taliban because they have been frustrating NATO’s Eastward Creep strategy, whereas, North Alliance has been facilitating United States and NATO presence in Afghanistan. The long-term presence of the United States and its like-minded Western States in Afghanistan is not in the interest of Moscow.
Central Asia is Russian Federation’s ‘strategic backyard’ and for Pakistan an ‘economic promising region’. Anything disturbing in this region would raise strategic concerns for Russia, and diminish Pakistan’s economic opportunities. Both states have great stakes in the region and thereby their bilateral cooperation would have political and economic dividends for both Islamabad and Moscow. In addition, there are numerous areas of common interest ranging from bilateral economic cooperation to multilateral arms control and disarmament.
Neither Russians support weaponization of space, research and development of missile defense system, nor these new generations of lethal weapons are attractive for Pakistan. In the February 2003, Joint Statement (in Moscow) the two sides “agreed that keeping space free from weapons and prevention of arms race in space were essential for strengthening strategic stability.”
The stability in Afghanistan would transform Pakistan, within a few years, a hub of energy and transit trade in this region. This geo-economic significance of Pakistan makes it very attractive for Russians multi-national companies. For instance, the Russian Gazprom had shown interest in a $7.6 billion gas pipeline project for export of Iranian natural gas to Pakistan.
Islamabad has been endeavoring to use space technologies for peaceful purposes. In this context, it needs assistance from the scientific advance country such as Russian Federation. Importantly, the Russians have shown inclination to assist Pakistan in mastering in space-technology for peaceful use. For instance, Pakistan successfully launched “Badr-2” satellite with the use of a Russian launch vehicle.
The scientific higher-education has been becoming very costly and difficult for the Pakistani students in United States, Britain and Europe. Russia is also a scientifically advanced country and thereby Pakistani students would gain a lot by developing scientific and technical cooperation between Islamabad and Moscow. This area requires a serious consideration from the Pakistani ruling elite.
To conclude the bilateral relations between Islamabad and Moscow are on the positive trajectory. Notwithstanding, we still need serious deliberation and practical steps to sustain and intensify this positive upward trend between Pakistan and Russian Federation.
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