Economy
 
Bulging debts and default risks
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Visits 1471
September 23, 2011
Alarm bells are ringing loud and clear. But, oblivious to their ear-piercing sounds, the state minions remain engaged in their routine affairs and activities, creating fear and anxiety among the people who can foresee the risks involved and the awful consequences of inaction or not taking immediate remedial steps in keeping with challenges created by exponential increase in the country’s debts.

At record 11 trillion, Pakistan’s public debt raises rollover and interest rate risks, while inflation rate is predicted to stay strong, leading to price hike, erosion in currency value and consequently rise in poverty. In its Outlook 2011 update, the Asian Development Bank has reported a 29.2 percent increase in Pakistan’s domestic public debt to Rs6 trillion (33 percent of GDP) while external public debt rose to US$ 56.3 billion (Rs4.8 trillion) or 26.6 percent of GDP.

According to the Manila-based multilateral agency, the average maturity for domestic debt has fallen to 18 months and with interest rates above 12 percent cost were equivalent to about 35 percent of federal tax revenue for fiscal year 2011. “The shortening maturity for domestic debt raises both rollover and interest rate risk.”[1] Of late, the external debt has crossed $60 billion.

In the last decade, the government received Rs16 trillion in taxes from the citizens of Pakistan, while it borrowed Rs6 trillion, of which Rs2.5 trillion was foreign debt. In view of the poor state of infrastructure, the people are justified in asking “what has the government done with Rs22 trillion worth of resources?”[2] Obviously, government organizations and bankrupt entities gobbled up huge amounts of taxpayers’ monies, but they don’t have much to show for it. Consequently, every citizen of Pakistan is now indebted to the tune of Rs61,000.

Meanwhile, the government continues to borrow additional funds at the rate of Rs5,000 million per day. Merely two years ago, the country’s per capita debt stood at Rs46,000 when the government’s additional daily borrowing was at about half of the current rate. The government borrowing for budgetary support from the country’s financial institutions increased by 104 percent to Rs183.45 billion during the first two months of the current fiscal year against Rs89.894 billion in the corresponding period last year, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

In late 2011, the government had shifted its borrowing from the SBP to commercial banks after an agreement that the federal government would not breach the borrowing limit from the central bank.[3] Furthermore, in the wake of fast dwindling of Pakistani rupee by over Rs. 2 against one US dollar since July 1, 2011, Pakistan’s public debt has soared by a whopping Rs. 120 billion to-date.[4] The government is impelled to borrow due to deficit budget and the compound interest. And the compound interest means the exponential debt growth and consequently the greater chances of eventual bankruptcy, insolvency and default.

Some people feel that the trillion rupee debt that the country’s banks are carrying on their books has the bleak prospects of pay back. Just imagine the consequences if, God forbid, such a situation were ever to emerge!But, what the government is doing is against the Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act of 2005 under which it is obligated to “reducing the revenue deficit to nil not later than the 13th June, 2008, and thereafter, as per clause 3a of the Act, maintaining a revenue surplus. Thus, the government is in breach of this Act. Would Members of Parliament wake-up and check the government from the glaring breach of an Act of Pakistan’s Parliament? Perhaps, they won’t due to lollipops in their mouth in the shape of liberal perks and privileges! Simplicity is a word not known to the legislatures and State minion even in times like these.


In Blue Area or on the Constitution Avenue, every day new Land Cruiser Prados or other expensive vehicles, with green number plates and the words Senator or MNA inscribed on them, pass by ordinary folks, who complain that they rarely see a legislature in a small car. Pakistan’s economy sustains 3-4 percent loss of GDP per annum in the wake of crippling electricity shortages and subsidy that cause 10 percent unemployment, revealed Pakistan’s energy experts during Pak-US Strategic Dialogue, held recently in Islamabad.

According to SBP’s former Governor Dr. Muhammad Yaqub, the rate of inflation is much higher than what the official statistics show. The budgetary situation is much worse than what the budget documents reveal or the Ministry of Finance projects. Budget subsidies are substantial and are going to the wrong people. Several public enterprises are bankrupt. The balance sheets of banks are loaded with lending to the government and its bankrupt enterprises on the invalid assumption that sovereign debt cannot be in danger of default....The underground economy is expanding relative to the recorded economy. The medium term balance of payment situation is much more precarious than what the foreign exchange reserve position reflects....Two major threatening economic storms are brewing: On the domestic front, the country is headed towards runaway inflation.

On the external front, debt default is a real possibility. [5]The flood ravages in mid-2010 and again in August and September this year have added further to the economic woes of the country, interrupted its economic recovery, added to inflationary pressures and partly reversed its gains in poverty reduction. Flood-related reconstruction activities will span several years, and therefore impose durable pressure on the already small fiscal space. The Prime Minister has appealed to the citizens and the world community to help the flood victims. How can you expect others to donate generously when they see such abhorrent display of extravagance by our legislators and State minions?

According to a famous saying, leaders lead from the front and set an example for others to follow. Isn’t it a shame to see the example being set by our leaders? If the federal secretaries, including British citizens, and senior officers of the armed forces, say major generals (including Ayub Khan), have been pedaling to their offices till 1958, what achievements have their successors made that the government allowed them free use of one limousine for self and families to all officers in BS-20 and above? Perhaps, prompted by a desire to perpetuate their rule, crafty rulers and despots have been doling out liberal perks and privileges to the bureaucracy to muster their support.

While public transport is in a shambles, officers and their families roam around in luxury cars! Furthermore, till Yahya Khan’s rule, there was no concept of free kitchen for the top hierarchy and their guests. In his autobiography, Gohar Ayub writes that whenever he visited his father FM Ayub Khan, the President House staff invariably presented to them a bill for refreshments, if any were served.

Meanwhile, as the fiscal and trade deficits increased sharply, the World Bank, in its August 2011 newsletter, notes that Pakistan’s economic growth slowed down from about 7 percent in 2006-07 to only 1.2 percent in 2008-09; inflation soared to over 20 percent; and the favourable debt dynamics stalled. It adds: “A government facing challenges on various fronts has found it difficult to sustain bold action required to stabilize the economy. Revenue efforts fell well short of the desired levels and hemorrhaging of the budget continued due to government’s inability to reduce untargeted subsidies. Monetary modes of financing the high fiscal deficits thwarted all attempts to tame inflation.”

Inflation is the cruelest form of taxation hitting the poorest segments of society the hardest and creating social and political unrest. It hurts growth, adds to poverty and economic crimes and generates a dual society that can ultimately promote a class war and social and political disorder. The World Bank has highlighted a number of critical challenges that Pakistan needs to address to accelerate its growth. These are weak revenue mobilization, poor composition and efficiency of public expenditure, inadequate and unreliable infrastructure, low level of human development, conflict and insecurity, imminent demographic bulge, which would require jobs for a young, growing and increasingly urbanized population; poor and deteriorating level of governance in a context of accelerated decentralization to provincial government.

The bulging debt trap calls for observing austerity and curtailing non-development expenditure. Furthermore, all stakeholders need to sit together to devise a strategy and a perspective plan to bail out Pakistan from the precarious situation. The plan, if adopted as an Act of Parliament, would become binding for all governments. With change in government, the new rulers would find it difficult to change or alter it as per their whims.

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